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Old 03-01-2017, 03:47 PM   #582
Brian Swartz
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Join Date: May 2006
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1. Prakash Mooljee(92%, 8.77, +0.02)

Mooljee is not quite to his peak yet, which he'll likely reach sometime this year. He's sitting at the usual max level that my players have been able to sustain for an extended period when at the top of their game(5.3 skill, 4.0 serve) and pretty much exactly equal to the peak of Girsh(8.78) and Mehul now. I think it's accurate to say no Sri Lanka player has ever been objectively better ... though Mehul was more consistent which could give him the edge. Antonin Iglar probably maxed out at about 8.91-8.93(estimating) by comparison, so this is a nice place to be. Prakash is still the best player in the world ... but not for much longer. He really needs to get this year off to a big start in order to hang on to the #1 this year -- because the next generation has arrived. More on that as we proceed through the rundown.

2. Tomas Niklas(90%, 8.48, -0.03)

Niklas is now just past his peak, and even more than Mooljee will need to concern himself with holding off the young guns. I don't think he'll be able to do that for much longer, and he'll probably be battling to stay in the Top 4 at best by year's end.

3. Johnny Browne(94%, 8.53, +0.11)

Power, an elite serve, and the best mental game I've ever seen. Browne is still quite weak by contender standards from the back of the court, but he definitely has compensations for that and is still clearly improving. I don't see him rising past third though -- but only because even though he's a fine player, he's in tough spot compared to the excellence of the competition.

4. Mateo Kaspar(99%, 8.70, +0.29)

Kaspar has just over the past few weeks shown the first signs that he's passed his physical peak. It's easy to get too enamored with the way he finished last year; the season before, Zourab Andronikov stunned everyone in Paris ... and this year he stumbled to 15th, with his best days clearly behind him. Mateo is a different matter though. He's special. Most notable is his endurance, which at 4.8 is the highest I've seen in a top player since the incomparable Eric Gorritepe who came in at 5.1. Mateo has already reached a level that few players do, and he's going to get better for several more seasons. There's little question that he's going to be the first player to breach the 9-point barrier since I started reporting this dynasty(only Iglar has come close), and while he has some good competition I expect him to go down as second only to Gorritepe by the time his career's over. Mateo is simply that good, elite in almost all categories(only exception being speed, which isn't bad). Around the end of this year he should equal Mooljee, and I figure him to move up to #2, ready to strike the year afterwards.

I don't know that I've ever seen a player go from 33rd to 4th in one year. That's frankly astounding.

5. Gillo Fangio(97%, 8.62, +0.12)

All of that is not particularly good news for Fangio, who seems destined to never be better than second-best despite his status as a very fine talent. He was simply born at the wrong time. The overall excellence and in particular outstanding mental game, nearly as good as Browne, will let him have his moments at least occasionally I expect. This year he probably moves up to a competitive third past the American but still behind Mooljee and Kaspar.

6. Girish Girsh(80%, 8.40, -0.09)

I'm not sure where Girsh ends up this year -- a lot depends on how long it takes someone to pick him up, and what they decide to do with him. Could be a borderline Top 10 player, could fall a lot further. His decline has definitely been accenuated by the success of the next generation though ... otherwhise he might have hung on near the top for another year.

7. Khasan Zakirov(90%, 8.41, -0.02)

Zakirov is just starting to decline, and I don't expect to see his ranking change much after finishing 8th a year ago. Probably passes Girsh and falls below Janin, maybe another spot or two in either direction but that's it.

8. Juan de los Santos(91%, 8.27, +0.01)

Should be Santos' best year. Real question is what does that mean? A strong clay season could push him up to about 5th or 6th. That's my best guess. He's too limited to do any more than that, and after this season a swift decline should commence. He's a meteoric player much in the mold of, for those long-time readers of this story, Perry Hogue of many years ago.

9. Luc Janin(95%, 8.63, +0.06)

Objectively, Janin is pretty much even with Fangio for third-best player in the world. Will he ever start playing like it??

10. Tiosav Srbulovic(92%, 8.36, +0.01)

Srbulovic should have one more bit of improvement in him, but it was definitely a little disappointing for him not to learn more this past year. He's just too limited to become much more than he is.

11. Kire Zopp(93%, 8.20, ??)

The unquestioned surprise player of the year took Finland to Level 1 for the first time ever. He's about as lazy as I've ever seen for a player of this stature(2.1 endurance), so I don't expect him to get much better though. Still a fine story.

12. Shreya Ujjaval(87%, 8.33, -0.06)

The work Ujjaval put in this year was belied by his results, tumbling out of the Top 10. He's still capable of moving back up a couple spots and has elite technique, but age is obviously enough of an issue here that he's sliding overall. He's an important insurance policy for Sri Lanka the next year or two in case Girsh completely falls apart.

13. Jake Jolland(94%, 8.26, +0.06)

Still improving little by little, part of a deep group of American players at the moment. My outlook for Jolland continues to be a guy who never quite makes the Top 10. He's up from 18th a year ago, and progressing slowly.

17. Phillippe Besson(92%, 8.43, +0.20)

A fine year for Besson, up from 26th a year ago, and he's good enough to possibly make a run at cracking the first page. He needs to do it now though, as the top Swiss has almost peaked.

18. Martin Zarco(99%, 8.36, ??)

Zarco's new to the rundown, having been somewhere around 50th a year ago. He's got a lot of work to do technically, but is an outstanding mover along with being another example of the upcoming generation's incredible mental toughness. Along with Santos, he ensures a return to relevance for Spain particularly on clay. Zarco seems a shoo-in to be Top 10 within two years.

20. Andres Guardado(94%, 7.98, -0.03)

Guardado's lack of physical gifts make his continued gradual rise(24th last year) somewhat puzzling.

23. Guus Dircx(100%, 8.36, +0.35)

Last season I said this Netherlands phenom, just shy of his 21st birthday now, 'probably doesn't move up much further this season'. He was 40th. Shows what I know. Dircx is still much lacking technically, but athletically and mentally he's outstanding. He's shown enough to convince me he'll keep going up into the teens this year, and he figures to have a short but impressive career.

26. Ariel Borja(99%, 8.32, ??)

When it comes to pure power, Borja is literally the best I've ever seen(5.1 str). He announced himself with quarterfinal showings at Shanghai and the USO, beating Janin both times. Another obvious future Top-10 guy who will soon be representing the United States.

28. Anil Mehul(73%, 7.96, -0.17)

Mehul's ranking more than doubled, down from 13th as he worked on doubles. In that department, he moved up to 75th, narrowly a career-best. He's just past two-thirds of the way there(doubles training), and currently figures at 4.95 in his training progression. It'll be about another year and a half for him to max out his doubles abilities. Scheduling will continue to be tricky as he's ranked just high enough to be needed as a regular singles player in all of the big events.

29. Ruslan Strelkov(96%, 7.73, +0.11)

Strelkov basically treaded water this year, and he's a pretty limited player. Serve has become decent though, and he's a hard enough worker(4.4 endurance) to make him still worth watching.

31. Lars Kroese(94%, 8.17, +0.20)

Kroese was over-valued at 27th a year ago, but I expect him to bounce back up. He made major technical gains, and has enough mental ability to help mask very average athleticism. Should be a Top-20 guy, or close to that at least.

32. Milos Schmuker(98%, 8.24, ??)

This young Czech is worth getting to know. Solid technique for a 22-year-old, very good endurance, outstanding mentality once again, and good-enough athleticism. Definitely looks like the guy to be a standard-bearer after Niklas for the Czech Republic.

42. Benno Duhr(100%, 7.34, ??)

Duhr is a young Austrian clay specialist who has gotten this far by playing every challenger in sight on his favored surface. That only gets you so far, and he's not going much further despite his talent, at least for a while. Average athleticism and too much time spent on doubles are holding him back as well.

54. Shyam Senepathy(92%, 7.48, +0.04)

Senepathy continues to be stuck just barely outside the Top 50. Should be his best chance at getting over that barrier coming up this year, and probably he'll just barely do it.

91. Ruben Piazzola(101%, 7.65, ??)

The pride of Chile, not exactly known for their tennis prowess, has emerged as an early rival of Dudwadkar's. They played three times in challengers late in the year, with Piazzola getting the better of him twice. Excellent athleticism and endurance ensure the top-ranked teenager in the world(turns 20 in a couple weeks though) will keep moving upwards.

113. Ritwik Dudwadkar(99%, 7.73, +0.60)

Dudwadkar peaked at 105th, with a win and two finals in four challenger outings at the end of the year. He'll be playing in one of the packed tier-1 events, then off to an AO debut before resuming playing in the lower-level events. By comparison here, at the same age Moojee was 72nd, Girsh 98th, Mehul around 120th. He's on the lower end of that mostly because it took him longer to get into the challengers. Goal for this year is to make the Top 50, which should be very achievable. Getting beyond that will be more problematic. The Top 32 is competitive at a level I've never seen. For a number of years it took anywhere from 1115-1160 points to reach that elite circle. Sometimes it's in the 1200s ... but right now #32 Schmucker is at 1465, which is by the far the highest in at least the last 15 years for that ranking. If things stay that way, it makes the schedule a lot tougher once Dudwadkar becomes an top challenger player. Simply playing minimal #s of events in both singles and doubles won't get him enough points, so he'll have to either play some bigger events before he's ready to, or play a denser schedule focused more on singles. Neither are optimal for development, and it'll be a tough call, but that's about a year away.

Right now, it's a matter of continuing to work his way up through the ranks. He's more than good enough to keep making progress.

NR(J). Sushant Chiba(61%, 1.74, --)

I'm continuing to experiment with early-juniors development here. I think having an even investment in skill and service is a good idea starting out, but I did it for too long with Dudwadkar. I'm going to track the serving more closely and see where the double faults really start to drop off. Definitely no higher than 1.0/1.0 is where I want to go before switching to the normal development scheme. First practice week for our newbie is about to be underway.

Manager Ranking -- I'm still first by a long ways but continuing to slide. Down to 41.8k points from 45.5k last year.

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 03-01-2017 at 03:57 PM.
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