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After spending some time last night early this morning starting with the three, Mali seems like an Ajuuraan or Mutapa since it has 14 provinces with more than 100 dev and two gold mines. Now that could wind up being bad, since your monthly rebellion could be months away from your main army, especially as you expand, giving them time to capture and then when you recapture it is has more rebel risk, but that's still bigger than other options. It feels like the African version of the Timurids or the Ming Dynasty China after it loses the Mandate of Heaven, strong economy, lots of rebels.
So I am pulling Mali from my options and looking at Riga or Butua.
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