Front Office Football Central - View Single Post

Brian Swartz · 08-03-2018, 04:31 AM

2061 Preview

** Aside: It feels really weird to only have three active players right now. And not to have a certain guy on that list.

1. Karl Kaspar(93%, 8.57, +0.07)

His second-half surge was fueled by just playing better more than anything else, though Karl did improve his serve this year. He's far from a dominant force, well below the peak of Dudwadkar never mind the elder Mateo, and definitely not the current best player on paper. Suffice to say, I'm not sold on him staying at the top for years to come. But, the First of His Name is there now, and still has at least another year of potential improvement.

2. Mateo Kaspar(79%, 8.55, -0.23)

While it hurts him in singles, the doubles focus could well make France stupid-dominant in the WTC for a while. His skills there are half-complete, but he hasn't played much. I expect he'll be on the national team in pairs by year's end. It's also easily seen that all he'd have to do is go on a hot streak at this point to knock Karl from that perch of his.

3. Ritwik Dudwadkar(82%, 8.59, -0.04)

Actually higher-rated, by a hair, than either Kaspar right now. It gets crazier, but just look at how close these three are!! This lends credence to the 'Karl's just hot right now' theorem, but it also means that really nobody knows what's going to happen next year with the top rankings. Usually when players are this close, inertia wins(higher seeds get favorable matchups and stay where they are).

4. Hamal Sbai(89%, 8.65, -0.08)

His first year of decline is now evident, but it does have to be said that Sbai is, on paper, now the best player in the world. Does he keep underachieving, or he can he catch lightning in a bottle, do something with that fact, and make a real challenge? He can't do worse than last year's record against the Top 3: 0-8, and most of them weren't close.

Also: This is the lowest-rated 'best player in the world on paper' that I've seen in a LONG time. I really think there's exciting stuff coming. More on that later.

5. Stuart Pargeter(88%, 8.29, -0.11)

Mateo's doubles partner now. Isn't that interesting. Looks like Pargeter's done being a competitive singles player, at least to a degree. It's understandable given that he's in a rut a best.

6. Sushant Chiba(95%, 8.51, +0.01)

Well, that's not a great improvement number ... but a lot of it has to do with him being a 'high' 5.1 skill, 3.9 serve guy right now. Probably will see a more significant boost next year. Looks to be just behind Karl Kaspar overall, 2% and just over 1.5 years younger. I think there's the potential for an interesting rivalry here.

7. Gregory Mackenzie(84%, 8.18, -0.18)

Moved up two spots from 9th, while dropping like this? I think it's safe to say that's not going to last.

8. Gilberto Chinaglia(86%, 8.27, -0.02)

The exact same rating he had two years ago. Chinaglia has arguably the best serve in tennis right now, and is doing everything he can to hang around. Part of me admires a guy who is refuses to go quietly into that good night. Another part just wants him to get out of the way in favor of fresh blood, but good for Gilberto for making the newcomers earn it.

9. Hugo Cordova(88%, 8.19, +0.01)

At his peak, and a big question right now is who among the over-the-hill gang drops the fastest.

10. Kenneth Brasher(92%, 7.96, --)

Riding his big serve as far as it will take him. Which is further than expected so far. Flatlining during a key prime year is not what the doctor ordered, however.

11. Brian Meikeljohn(98%, 8.57, +0.16)

Even with the doubles diversion, he's good enough to be a serious contender. What will he do with that opportunity?

12. Chad Duncan(90%, 7.98, -0.04)

Definitely an overachieving year for him ... but right now if you can serve, you have a chance. There are a lot of slow players out there.

14. John Hart(98%, 8.47, NA)

Yikes. Hart has legitimate technical skills for a top player right now, solid athleticism and mental abilities as well. Nothing special in those areas, but he's got exceptional endurance and has been well-developed. Hart is a legit candidate for future #1. A strong one.

John snuck up on me last year, but he won't do so again.

15. Stanley Edleman(92%, 8.14, -0.01)

I ran the numbers twice on this, just to be sure. The year that Edleman breaks out a bit(22nd last year, mid-20s for a couple before that) he actually doesn't get any better. Go figure. Well he's got one year of improving left to do and there are worse players ranked above him. Top 10 could still happen.

16. Ali Kaihep(91%, 8.30, NA)

Weird for a player this old to just emerge out of nowhere. He's spent far too much on doubles or he'd be better. Good mental game, solid athletically, just not quite there technically because of the doubles thing. Still has every chance to be Top 10.

17. Seamus Hughes(97%, 8.19, NA)

Hughes is a little better mentally, but doesn't have the footspeed or dedication that Hart does. He looks to be the weaker of the two Irish young guns ... but he'll find his way to the Top 5 at least I expect anyway. He's still quite good.

19. Ugljesa Svajnovic(84%, 8.08, +0.07)

A gradual climb looks sensible for Svajnovic. Borderline Top-10 potential depending on what happens with other players.

20. Chalerm Prachuab(94%, 8.28, +0.13)

Sometimes life isn't fair. Prachuab had a good year off the court, and slid two spots. His technical skills are getting close to the required level for him to make a significant jump, and I'd be very surprised if he's not at least in the low teens this year.

21. Mike Rhodes(98%, 7.89, +0.12)

The grand 'who needs baseline play' experiment with the elite-serving, powerful Rhodes made some progress last year. One would expect he'll try to make his mark on the clay events this season. I'm not betting the farm on his success, but it'll be worth watching. When going for an extreme player approach, it might be worth not doing a self-contradictory one(i.e., grind if you're going to grind). Clay is the surface on which being a big server is the least useful. Just saying.

23. Jacek Andrejova(94%, 8.36, +0.13)

Solid improvement for Andrejova, another guy who looks too good not to keep moving up. Similarly flawed from the back as Rhodes, but not to as much of a degree and while he doesn't possess the same power, he has a lot and is mentally strong at a high level also.

26. Benjamin Abanades(95%, 8.18, NA)

Opposite idea here: the next hope for Spain is fast, but has imbalanced himself towards baseline play at the expense of his serve. It's good enough for mid-level Challenge play only. Also has diversified his surface abilities too much. He's proved himself dangerous, and should keep moving up. Probably peaking in the 7-10 range I think, if even that high.

27. Tomas Guadiana(92%, 8.17, +0.09)

Looks like one of those guys who is good enough to get a mention for a few years, but not good enough to make any of the top players really sweat.

28. Valery Stachovsky(99%, 8.01, NA)

It's always interesting to look at a new, young talent. Talent he has in spades(4.9, haven't seen that stratosphere in many moons!). Good endurance as well. Someone should tell him having indoors as your primary surface isn't a real swell idea though. Not the most powerful player, but reasonably fast ... technical abilities are reasonably well-developed also. Looks pretty good, but would need a better manager to really become great. If I had to guess, I'd say probably peaks somewhere around 5th, maybe lower. There's still time to fix the biggest problems, but it's not likely to actually happen.

2037. Amrik Kasaravalli(92%, 6.20, +1.11)

Interestingly he made up some ground here. Chiba was 6.22 at this point, usually players are a bit closer to 6.3, but Kasaravalli is looking like less of a disappointment than expected which backs up the way he performed on the court. In any case, he figures to be ready to tackle the amateur level successfully and get on to futures this year.

08-03-2018, 04:31 AM	#841
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2061 Preview Aside: It feels really weird to only have three active players right now. And not to have a certain guy on that list. 1. Karl Kaspar(93%, 8.57, +0.07) His second-half surge was fueled by just playing better more than anything else, though Karl did improve his serve this year. He's far from a dominant force, well below the peak of Dudwadkar never mind the elder Mateo, and definitely not the current best player on paper. Suffice to say, I'm not sold on him staying at the top for years to come. But, the First of His Name is there now, and still has at least another year of potential improvement. 2. Mateo Kaspar(79%, 8.55, -0.23) While it hurts him in singles, the doubles focus could well make France stupid-dominant in the WTC for a while. His skills there are half-complete, but he hasn't played much. I expect he'll be on the national team in pairs by year's end. It's also easily seen that all he'd have to do is go on a hot streak at this point to knock Karl from that perch of his. 3. Ritwik Dudwadkar(82%, 8.59, -0.04) Actually higher-rated, by a hair, than either Kaspar right now. It gets crazier, but just look at how close these three are!! This lends credence to the 'Karl's just hot right now' theorem, but it also means that really nobody knows what's going to happen next year with the top rankings. Usually when players are this close, inertia wins(higher seeds get favorable matchups and stay where they are). 4. Hamal Sbai(89%, 8.65, -0.08) His first year of decline is now evident, but it does have to be said that Sbai is, on paper, now the best player in the world. Does he keep underachieving, or he can he catch lightning in a bottle, do something with that fact, and make a real challenge? He can't do worse than last year's record against the Top 3: 0-8, and most of them weren't close. Also: This is the lowest-rated 'best player in the world on paper' that I've seen in a LONG time. I really think there's exciting stuff coming. More on that later. 5. Stuart Pargeter(88%, 8.29, -0.11) Mateo's doubles partner now. Isn't that interesting. Looks like Pargeter's done being a competitive singles player, at least to a degree. It's understandable given that he's in a rut a best. 6. Sushant Chiba(95%, 8.51, +0.01) Well, that's not a great improvement number ... but a lot of it has to do with him being a 'high' 5.1 skill, 3.9 serve guy right now. Probably will see a more significant boost next year. Looks to be just behind Karl Kaspar overall, 2% and just over 1.5 years younger. I think there's the potential for an interesting rivalry here. 7. Gregory Mackenzie(84%, 8.18, -0.18) Moved up two spots from 9th, while dropping like this? I think it's safe to say that's not going to last. 8. Gilberto Chinaglia(86%, 8.27, -0.02) The exact same rating he had two years ago. Chinaglia has arguably the best serve in tennis right now, and is doing everything he can to hang around. Part of me admires a guy who is refuses to go quietly into that good night. Another part just wants him to get out of the way in favor of fresh blood, but good for Gilberto for making the newcomers earn it. 9. Hugo Cordova(88%, 8.19, +0.01) At his peak, and a big question right now is who among the over-the-hill gang drops the fastest. 10. Kenneth Brasher(92%, 7.96, --) Riding his big serve as far as it will take him. Which is further than expected so far. Flatlining during a key prime year is not what the doctor ordered, however. 11. Brian Meikeljohn(98%, 8.57, +0.16) Even with the doubles diversion, he's good enough to be a serious contender. What will he do with that opportunity? 12. Chad Duncan(90%, 7.98, -0.04) Definitely an overachieving year for him ... but right now if you can serve, you have a chance. There are a lot of slow players out there. 14. John Hart(98%, 8.47, NA) Yikes. Hart has legitimate technical skills for a top player right now, solid athleticism and mental abilities as well. Nothing special in those areas, but he's got exceptional endurance and has been well-developed. Hart is a legit candidate for future #1. A strong one. John snuck up on me last year, but he won't do so again. 15. Stanley Edleman(92%, 8.14, -0.01) I ran the numbers twice on this, just to be sure. The year that Edleman breaks out a bit(22nd last year, mid-20s for a couple before that) he actually doesn't get any better. Go figure. Well he's got one year of improving left to do and there are worse players ranked above him. Top 10 could still happen. 16. Ali Kaihep(91%, 8.30, NA) Weird for a player this old to just emerge out of nowhere. He's spent far too much on doubles or he'd be better. Good mental game, solid athletically, just not quite there technically because of the doubles thing. Still has every chance to be Top 10. 17. Seamus Hughes(97%, 8.19, NA) Hughes is a little better mentally, but doesn't have the footspeed or dedication that Hart does. He looks to be the weaker of the two Irish young guns ... but he'll find his way to the Top 5 at least I expect anyway. He's still quite good. 19. Ugljesa Svajnovic(84%, 8.08, +0.07) A gradual climb looks sensible for Svajnovic. Borderline Top-10 potential depending on what happens with other players. 20. Chalerm Prachuab(94%, 8.28, +0.13) Sometimes life isn't fair. Prachuab had a good year off the court, and slid two spots. His technical skills are getting close to the required level for him to make a significant jump, and I'd be very surprised if he's not at least in the low teens this year. 21. Mike Rhodes(98%, 7.89, +0.12) The grand 'who needs baseline play' experiment with the elite-serving, powerful Rhodes made some progress last year. One would expect he'll try to make his mark on the clay events this season. I'm not betting the farm on his success, but it'll be worth watching. When going for an extreme player approach, it might be worth not doing a self-contradictory one(i.e., grind if you're going to grind). Clay is the surface on which being a big server is the least useful. Just saying. 23. Jacek Andrejova(94%, 8.36, +0.13) Solid improvement for Andrejova, another guy who looks too good not to keep moving up. Similarly flawed from the back as Rhodes, but not to as much of a degree and while he doesn't possess the same power, he has a lot and is mentally strong at a high level also. 26. Benjamin Abanades(95%, 8.18, NA) Opposite idea here: the next hope for Spain is fast, but has imbalanced himself towards baseline play at the expense of his serve. It's good enough for mid-level Challenge play only. Also has diversified his surface abilities too much. He's proved himself dangerous, and should keep moving up. Probably peaking in the 7-10 range I think, if even that high. 27. Tomas Guadiana(92%, 8.17, +0.09) Looks like one of those guys who is good enough to get a mention for a few years, but not good enough to make any of the top players really sweat. 28. Valery Stachovsky(99%, 8.01, NA) It's always interesting to look at a new, young talent. Talent he has in spades(4.9, haven't seen that stratosphere in many moons!). Good endurance as well. Someone should tell him having indoors as your primary surface isn't a real swell idea though. Not the most powerful player, but reasonably fast ... technical abilities are reasonably well-developed also. Looks pretty good, but would need a better manager to really become great. If I had to guess, I'd say probably peaks somewhere around 5th, maybe lower. There's still time to fix the biggest problems, but it's not likely to actually happen. 2037. Amrik Kasaravalli**(92%, 6.20, +1.11) Interestingly he made up some ground here. Chiba was 6.22 at this point, usually players are a bit closer to 6.3, but Kasaravalli is looking like less of a disappointment than expected which backs up the way he performed on the court. In any case, he figures to be ready to tackle the amateur level successfully and get on to futures this year.