Danny, your write up is good, and similar to what I was thinking. That puts Abe as one of my prime suspects now. I also wonder about Pass jumping to the defense of Lerriuqs. There was a moment there where it seemed like Lathum's intense scrutiny might have led to Lerriuqs ending up as the day 1 target, and perhaps Pass wanted to fend that off.
Barkeep, your point is valid too. I'm not not sure who I would posit as the quietest in game, but a look or two in their direction should hopefully flush them out of the woodwork.
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