[Arles]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

dola

I'm still drafting Doncic at #1.

What's weird to me is there is really no legitimate dissent on any main site about Doncic. The Ringer, ESPN, SI, Sporting News, Bleacher Report, SB Nation, etc. It's just all how great this guy is. I think he's a very good prospect, but there are a lot of red flags to me:
1. He's shot 27% from 3 in 2018. All I hear about is what a great shooter he is. That just hasn't been the case. For the season, he shot 30.8% from 3.
2. Everyone keeps comparing him to Harden, but he just doesn't have close to Harden's first step. Now, the argument is his athleticism will get better with training, but he is really slow compared to the NBA. There's no way he can guard an NBA PG or SG and would probably struggle against most 3s. What's funny is people keep knocking Ayton for his defense and blocking shots. But, what Ayton was great at was being switched onto guards. He did it all year at AZ so he wasn't protecting the rim as much because he could switch:



It's crazy to me that so Ayton has taken such a knock for his defense and foot speed when he runs the floor well and may be better able to guard on the perimeter than Doncic:



3. The one knock I've seen on Doncic is his maturity. Here's the an excerpt from the one somewhat negative scouting report I found from an NBA scout (and it took some digging):

— Very immature
— Not mentally or emotionally prepared to play in NBA right now​
— Entitled
— Full of himself
— Not liked by teammates

Now, if he had played at Duke and acted the way he did in some games at Real Madrid, people would be up in arms. And for those people saying he's only 19, he's been playing professionally since 13 and has much more experience than any college kid. Yet, he's come off as more immature.

To me, his probable comp is Hedo Turkoglu. The year he was drafted, Turkoglu took his team to the Euroleague final four and averaged 14-5-3. He was a nice playmaker in the NBA, but could never guard at the NBA level and that held him back. Still, that's a very good NBA player. I just don't see Doncic as ever reaching superstar status unless his athleticism and shooting drastically improve. To me, Ayton gives similar production right now but has a much higher ceiling. He was completely misused at Arizona and had to play with another center on the court most of the year. Arizona had very little shooting and teams mostly zoned against them and dropped 2-3 guys on Ayton. You can't play that way in the NBA. Against USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 Tourney, he put up 32-18 and 32-14 because they played him pretty much straight up. I think it's fair to say he isn't a natural shot blocker, but he has the foot speed to switch on the pick and roll and atleast bother perimeter players until he can switch back. Offensively, he is the total package. He can shoot (hit 35% of his 3s), pass, post up and handle the ball. He could be Karl Anthony Towns or Boogie with better perimeter defense/switching ability. That's just a much higher upside than Doncic. I think both will be good players, but the lack of critical eye on Luka by most media sources is a little odd to me. Everyone else (Ayton, Bagley, Trae Young, etc) has been picked apart - but it's been hands off Doncic. Even if anyone tries to criticize him, you get an army of defenders trying to shut them down.