[Brian Swartz]

WTC Playoffs

Unfortunately I didn't get to covering this at the time, so the rankings here are after the ties, not going into them as I prefer.

** Denmark(20th) vs. Austria(15th) -- Denmark has been tempting fate a lot. They've been at the top level for six years now, but this is their fourth straight in a relegation playoff. Austria has been up for the same length of time, but is usually not in this situation. The sporadic involvement of Hammerstein is the main variable here -- when he's been involved and Frankl was younger, they made it to the quarterfinals and even the semifinals once a few years ago. Two wins by Hammerstein and a doubles victory gives the Austrians a 3-2 win, and between two nations with extended stays Denmark is sent down. They have a pair of marginal Top 100 players so right now they're really a borderline country that could pop right back up.

** Japan(27th) vs. Mexico(14th) -- Japan is a nation on the rise, having just moved up from Level 3 to Level 2 a year ago, and looking for back-to-back promotions here. Mexico has been one of the weaker Level 1 nations but has been at that level for well over a decade. The best player for either nation by far is Japan's Akhiro Sugiyama(44th), but he stunningly lost his first match and Mexico prevailed 4-1. While Sugiyama is only 21, the other Japanese player is 34-year-old veteran Shogo Ko, so it's unclear how fast or far they will rise. I expect them to be back in this situation seeking promotion though multiple tims during Sugiyama's career. Mexico hangs on to its top billing but the nation's weakness right now is highlighted by it's lack of a Top 100 singles player. This may have been a temporary stay for them.

**The Netherlands(21st) vs. Croatia(17th) -- The Netherlands is one of those 'not quite good enough' nations. They were relegated to Level 2 seven years ago, and this is their second shot at promotion in three years. Croatia meanwhile promoted last year as Level 2 champions but did not win more than a single rubber in any of their Level 1 ties. They were more than equal to the task here, scoring a 4-1 victory with the only loss in doubles. A pair of good young players in Blagota Cojanovic(53rd) and Sava Cirakovic(38th), both still years away from reaching their primes and on the rise, ensure a bright future for the Croatians. I expect them to be a more competitive foe in the top tier over the next several seasons.

** South Africa(10th) vs. Luxembourg(11th)[/b] -- The Level 2 Champions this year, South Africa beat Luxembourg 3-2 in the final and now they get a rematch to see who moves up. They haven't had a promotion shot in several years(lost 4-1 to Austria) and a decade ago they were a Level 3 country. Since winning Level 3 six years ago, Luxembourg has been in the promotion playoffs every single year since. With one exception, they have all been 3-2 narrow defeats. And they hit the wall here again with a repeat 3-2 setback against South Africa. An 8-6 decision in the fifth set of the doubles match, as South Africa came from two sets down to win it, was the decider. Hard to get closer than that. Unfortunately Luxembourg has no margin for error with only one decent singles player.

South Africa moves up, replacing Denmark, while everyone else stays where they are.

WTC Standings

1. United States -- 2477
2. Sri Lanka -- 2334
3. Argentina -- 2317
4. Czech Republic -- 2287
5. Russia -- 2102
6. Germany -- 2096
7. France -- 2048
8. Peru -- 2038
9. Spain -- 1997
10. South Africa -- 1946

It's jarring to see Spain so low, and to a lesser extent the Czechs are crumbling as well. We're narrowly in second place, but our focus is not on those behind us but on surpassing the United States for the top spot. It is feasible that this year we could reach the pinnacle, completing the journey began many years ago when we were at the very bottom of the heap in 86th.

2046 Preview

Sri Lanka has been drawn in Group 3, where we'll face Germany(6th), Peru(8th), and Austria(15th). Not a 'safe' group, as both of the first two are threats on clay. We should be able to get through though. We'll play Austria first, then Peru(on clay), and finally Germany(but on grass). I don't expect an easy journey, it is a bit tougher group than average, but still no reason we shouldn't win it. It wouldn't surprise me to see Peru qualify over Germany here.

Elsewhere, the US(1st) and Russia(5th) should be able to handle business in Group 1. Argentina(3rd) looks to have an easy road through Group 2 but depending on how things go either Sweden(14th) or Italy(16th) could join them. In the final group, the Czech Republic(4th) and France(7th) should be able to stop upstart Croatia(17th) from making much headway this year.