[Chief Rum]

Okay, so let's play the assumption game.

Let's ASSUME fontisian is telling the truth and all Big Six have a similar ability level to hers. They each have one time kill attempts that could make them murderers.

So let's think about this. I am also going to assume that Mr. Green's target is one of the 13 in the house at the start, just like the other Big Six.

That means we have six Big Six "shots", with a 1/12 chance per shot (13 in the house minus that Big Six player himself/herself) of being successful and turning that Big Six into a murderer.

If every Big Six player takes that 1/12 shot at random, they have an 11/12 chance of missing their Informant. My quick math says the chance all six miss is (11/12)^6 == about a 59% chance they all miss. That means it is unlikely their actions without further info will be successful and turn one of them into a murderer.

Now in actuality, their odds get better as they follow the thread and make a reasonable determination of who is not likely to be their Informant. Plus, the lynches will remove targets as well. And even as we add Extra Roles, the potential Informant target pool will only remain the same or get smaller. So let's say that while on average, it's unlikely nay one of them will have success, it is actually quite likely with the improved odds that at least one will have a successful kill.

Point is, CW has to plan for those odds in his game balance. If all Big Six start as non-murderers with a chance to become murderers, he can only really consider one murderer as likely to come from that group.

But we know murderers exist in this game already. Would a Big Six start as a murderer at all? This makes me wonder. I am thinking now that the Informants and the Extras are likely to be our pool of original murderers in the house (with 2-3 coming in one by one with the Extra Roles).