Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan
Unfortunately I don't have much more time before heading out.
Thinking out loud:
If we lynch DV we are sitting at 4-3 after the night kill if jeff is telling the truth. We lose as soon as we lynch the brutal unless we lynch the brutal last.
If we lynch DV and jeff is lying we are sitting either 5-2 or 4-2 (depending on brutal) after the night kill and we then get jeff to make it 3-1 and we have one shot at getting the cunning.
If we can get J23 one vote ahead at the deadline and he is lying we are in the same position as the lynch DV with jeff lying approach.
If he survives and is revealed we are 5-3 after the night kill and we go through the jeff/DV lynch and get to a 2-1 game with the last vote being for all the marbles.
If he is lynched because of funny business we are at 4-3 after the night kill and need to get the brutal last.
I think the best percentage would be if we could get J23 to be up by one vote at the deadline but that is a risky proposition as someone could try to manipulate a late tie (though if we set it up now we can make it easy to see who is screwing around at the end).
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Crap, I was including the brutal aspect into the J23 lynch as a wolf theory but forgot about the 2 for 1 brutal now with jeff/DV. If we had just stuck with going after one of either sal of J23 after jeff's reveal without forcing his hand to reveal again (if he is not lying) then we would have been in a better position.