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I wonder how far Alabama would fall with a loss, though the noteworthy escape from Auburn yesterday doesn't help. One signal will be whether Michigan moves all the way up to #2. I think Alabama stays there, also to help keep them in if they give Georgia a good run, but still lose. In the case of both making it, the committee will want them 1/2 or 1/3, to avoid a "this time it counts" marketing of a semifinal rematch.
I'm not sure about Notre Dame staying ahead of Baylor, though I think it's likely. When one team has a significant win and is one spot behind another, it's hard to keep it there. If Oklahoma State moves ahead of Notre Dame today, that could be a signal that the Big Twelve winner is in that spot. Or if Baylor doesn't move one behind Notre Dame, could be a sign that Oklahoma State would go ahead, but Baylor wouldn't.
I wouldn't completely rule out Oregon with a lot of help. They can avenge the one non-overtime loss they had, which was a bad one that dropped them eight spots. They're probably sitting in 10th after today's rankings.
It's too bad we have almost no inter-conference play to work with here. It's easy to separate Georgia from the pack based on results, especially with that win over Clemson. Maybe Alabama as well. Since it seems we're inevitably headed toward a super-mega-alliance of the power five (or four), maybe it's time to move to a closed schedule.
Right now, everything's laser-focused on the number of losses, and that's definitely hurting the quality of non-conference games. It will be an uncomfortable transition that's just starting out because of NIL, but eventually, there should be a professional league here with an associated union. We've been pretending that these kids aren't asked to do a professional's job, with coaches now passing the $10 million/year mark, for far too long.
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