|
Anyway, back to the matter in hand. What I'm really hoping here is that all this "let's drop the no lynch idea" is designed to get everyone voting before all the villagers come out and say "Haha! Only fooling! We're actually going to vote no lynch today". Which is a great plan and all but unfortunately not one I can take part in and not one I'm convinced you're all planning anyway.
I think everyone is missing the point - I was earlier today. Which is fair enough because it's pretty much taken me the whole day to get it down to this. This has nothing to do with helping the seer. We have, basically, two lynches to nail a bad guy. If we don't, we lose (barring some sort of 3:2+1 miracle - which basically involves the wolves picking the sorceror to lynch or a villager getting the first vote in on a wolf). It doesn't matter if those lynches are made day one or day two, or if they're made day two and three. The only difference is that we have a better chance of getting a baddy if we wait till day two, in terms of pure liklihood of hitting a bad guy.
If we look at today as night 0 then it makes perfect sense. Notice this has absolutely nothing to do with the seer. Giving the seer extra help is just a happy bonus. The mistake I was making was forgetting that we only have two lynches to make things work, not that we had to get things done by day three.
I've made such a pig's ear of the statistics that I fear to try again but put simply - if things are just random;
Lynch: Day One 30% Assuming a miss, Day Two: 37.5% Day Three: we're screwed. Chance of hitting a baddy: 56.25%
No Lynch: Day Two 33% Assuming a miss, Day Three: ~43% Day Four: we're screwed. Chance of hitting a baddy: 61.80%
Arguing about getting better voting records by voting today is irrelevent because either way we get only one day of useful voting records before the critical day. In fact as a lot of us have already voted and there's going to be a to- and fro- over no lynch we actually get more voting records by voting no lynch. We get what we've been through today and then we get tomorrows.
What this doesn't account for is what happens after we've got one baddy. But my head hurts when I think about that. Instinctively though I think we're better off taking the heightened chances of getting a baddy early on then saving it for later.
My final argument is that there are no small games on BGG with even numbers. For why? I reckon because they've worked out that no lynch is the best move on day one in those cases.
|