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Old 12-03-2020, 07:20 AM   #24
shanklingill
n00b
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Quote:
Originally Posted by Front Office Midget View Post
Finally, the single most important stat in determining whether a QB is sacked is the QB's sense rush rating.

This is an interesting point, I checked in the save and found Lamar Jackson has a sense rush of 98, the highest in the league. How that has translated to his sack counts are frankly ridiculous. Aside from one year in 2025 (Where his 23 SA would still rank joint best in the last completed NFL season), over 8 seasons the Baltimore line have beaten their Franchise record of 19 allowed in 7 of those. The lowest number (2019) is 8. Only one team in history have achieved that defense of the QB (1988 Dolphins). 5 of these seasons have sack percentages under 1.9 percent. It tops out at 1.5 in the 8 sack season.

Having checked back through NFL team stats available (only for the last 21 seasons could I find) only one team in the last 21 seasons has achieved a sub 2 percent sack percentage, the Denver Broncos in 2008 with 12 sacks allowed. It stood at 1.9 exactly. It might be wrong, but I have to kind of conclude on available stats that this line, aside from the Dolphins (The stat is available because its a record) is producing unprecedent pass blocking capabilities never seen in the history of the game other than a few isolated seasons here and there.

Now...... one would think that the O line might be crazy good. I can only work out the first and last season of the 8 where I have save files.

Baltimore in year 1 average line quality of 49
Baltimore in last year line quality of 52

This is a line with no standout quality. All the line in the most recent season are better rush blockers than pass blockers.

Going a bit further, I checked performance of my pass rush vs this line since signing Bosa. See stats in previous posts, but with 4 pass rushers almost having perfect stats in those 4 seasons I have played Baltimore 11 times (8 RS, 3 PS). In those 11 games I have got to Lamar 2 times.

Average O Line + max sense rush > the best pass rush ever existing + average line. It seems this rating stat is tremendously overpowered looking through my career data.

On a side note, I am not really sure how anyone would rank "sensing the rush" in a QB. Looking at sack percentages over careers, there is no convincing argument that it favours a player of any type really. There are as many good players as bad or average ones. Mobile quarterbacks who escape the rush more get seem in the modern day to get sacked more. Pocket passers who dont move well can escape sacks more, but then their sack ratios then dont seem to coincide with any noticeable play improvements. When Marino posts a few unbelievable years for esacping sacks in 1988-99 he threw 45 picks (1989 ranks his career high, 1988 ranks 2nd), his lowest career completion ratios and his worst yearly QBR.

So does sensing a sack mean rushing the ball out?
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