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Brian Swartz · 04-23-2017, 01:27 PM

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1. Mateo Kaspar(97%, 8.96, +0.26)

Past his physical peak now, but still improving and not just a little. I have no way of comparing him to Gorritepe's best years, but he's now at least where Iglar where as this peak ... and will be getting better for at least a couple of years, probably three. Dude is just plain scary.

2. Prakash Mooljee(89%, 8.71, -0.06)

The first signs of decline are now starting to show. Mooljee is still an elite player though, and he's far from done.

3. Gillo Fangio(95%, 8.73, +0.11)

Fangio's on a similar path to Kaspar, it's just slower ... and he'll also decline faster. He's got two years left before he peaks, and really should push past Mooljee this season. I think he's got more in the tank than he showed most of the year, and ending by reaching the WTF final match was a good way to boost his confidence.

4. Johnny Browne(92%, 8.61, +0.08)

On paper, this should be Browne's best year. Despite the unwise investment in doubles, Johnny is still quite a fine player and is capable of being a threat to almost anybody.

5. Luc Janin(93%, 8.70, +0.07)

There's hardly a sheet of paper's distinction between Mooljee, Fangio, and Janin for the theoretical #2 position. It'd be nice if Luc was focused and well-managed this year; there could be some real fun battles there ... and Browne isn't far behind.

6. Khasan Zakirov(88%, 8.37, -0.04)

As mentioned in the rankings update, this is where things really drop off. Zakirov is doing well, maintaining his abilities and delaying his decline effectively. I think he's got at least another year as a solid Top-10 player and WTF qualifier. The difference is in the baseline game; Khasan has the serve, but he can't compete from the back of the court.

7. Juan de los Santos(89%, 8.30, +0.03)

This is a bit of a surprise; it's rare, but not unheard-of, for players to improve at all at this point in their careers. Maybe Santos has enough to stick around a bit more.

8. Tomas Niklas(87%, 8.44, -0.04)

Niklas is still trying, and he's got enough left here to even bounce back up a couple of spots if the year goes well for him.

9. Philippe Besson(89%, 8.28, -0.15)

Besson appears to have made the doubles turn this year at some point. His spot in the Top 10 appears to be shaky at best.

10. Tiosav Srbulovic(89%, 8.33, -0.03)

There's a clear divide here: The Top 5 are around to stay and I expect them to remain the same players in whatever order. The next five though have all reached the decline phase of their careers, if just barely. There's an opportunity here for others to replace them: who will seize it?

11. Jake Jolland(92%, 8.38, +0.12)

Jolland might finally be there. He only moved up two spots from a year ago, but did good work on his technical abilities. He's the kind of player who is just good enough to briefly crack the first page: and now's the time if he's going to do it, going into probably his peak year in terms of playing level.

12. Ariel Borja(97%, 8.45, +0.13)

Borja has a little more time, but had a fantastic season, rocketing up from 26th position. He's a class above Jolland clearly, and won't be satisfied merely with cracking the Top 10. It's just the next step for him, not the final one. Doesn't quite have the baseline game to assure his ascendancy yet though; he'll need to be sharp to keep progressing.

13. Guus Dircx(99%, 8.47, +0.11)

Also up big this year(23rd last season) is an even younger threat. I think he might stall a bit here since his technique needs quite a bit of work yet, but he's exceeded my expectations every year on his ascent so far. On paper, just good enough to beat the pack and get the theoretical #6. Definitely looks headed for the Top 5 at some point.

14. Martin Zarco(97%, 8.45, +0.09)

Didn't hear a lot from Zarco this past year. He bumped up a few spots from 18th but generally hit the wall a bit. He's another guy right in the same clump. It really is remarkable how closely matched this group in the 6-14 range is here. Things are constantly changing, but right now just pick a name blindly, they are all so close. Martin's still getting better, not dramatically so, but he'll push forward eventually.

18. Milos Schmucker(96%, 8.36, +0.12)

Last year I introducted Schmucker as the last man in the Top 32, a hyper-competitive spot, but he didn't stay there to the delight of Czech fans. He'll push up a bit more, but probably needs another year.

21. Shreya Ujjaval(84%, 8.20, -0.13)

It's a little disconcerting that Team Sri Lanka relies on a guy who is this far past his best tennis. He's still got strong technique though, but has been terminated by his previous manager which won't help. His decline will continue, and perhaps even accelerate, after slipping from 13th a year ago.

23. Sigmund Kronecker(95%, 8.43, ??)

There's a lot of veterans in the teens and 20s right now, but among them is this 24-year-old German that I've mentioned a couple times, but deserves an intro in the rundown here as he's made it into the professional class. Kronecker is primarily a clay player, good from the back but in an unusual twist his serve needs work. He's a good-enough athlete to convince me that he'll take another step forward this year. Didn't get enough matches at the end of last season though, so probably not a fast start here.

26. Ruslan Strelkov(95%, 7.83, +0.10)

Russia's top hope basically treaded water in the mid-20s last season, which is not really encouraging. Bottom line is all he really has is a top-notch serve. Baseline game is still anemic and athleticism underwhelming for a top player. I don't expect much more from him, he seems to have been an early overacheiver who reached his limitations.

31. Benno Duhr(99%, 7.64, ??)

Another new player, Duhr is the best Austrian we've seen in a while. He's a little short of his 22nd birthday, but I'm far from sold on him. Needs a ton of work at the back and is here mostly because he's taken good advantage of his expertise on clay. I don't think that will carry him much further, and he could peak as low as about 20th.

33. Hsuang-tsung Teng(99%, 8.15, ??)

Please don't even ask me to pronounce that. Teng is 22, a New Zealander. A lot of work to do yet on his shots but he is excellent when it comes to strength and the mental side of the game, and has good endurance. I don't think he'll be a major star, but he's likely on his way to the Top 10 eventually. One to watch.

39. Vinnie Cone(100%, 7.78, ??)

A former junior standout, Cone is here to remind everyone that there is no end to US talent. His serve still stinks and athleticism is just passable, so he's not a major prospect. Good enough to gradually move up though and at least get into the professional ranks. After that, we'll see.

42. Ruben Piazzola(100%, 8.04, ??)

The fourth new guy this year that Dudwadkar has unsuccessfully tangled with(Duhr, Teng, Cone as well). Piazzola is about to turn 21 and a clay expert, which seems to be a good ticket to rising quickly. Aside from that, good endurance and better athleticism are the strong points for this dynamic but raw player. Not impressive mentally but could check all the other boxes. Top 10 minimum here.

63. Shyam Senepathy(90%, 7.50, +0.02)

Looks like Senepathy ultimately proved me right about him not making the Top 50 in hilarious fashion. He peaked at #51 several times, and should have made it somewhat higher. He's not going to get any better at this point.

75. Ritwik Dudwadkar(99%, 8.17, +0.44)

Dudwadkar clearly has the game to be ranked much higher. I did screw up on a couple of weeks' scheduling, including missing the final challenger week of the year, but mostly this is down to him just continuing to underachieve. Against the top challenger players, who he should be beating his fair share of the time, he continues to lose pretty much every time. Lose competitively, but still. He's going to be good, but he's also going to be less than he should be.

The peak for him was 59th this year, and he's still up about 40 spots from a year ago. Eventually he'll start beating the best of the challenger group, and when that starts happening consistently I'll push him up to the professional Top-32 ranks as soon as possible. I'm still waiting for that to happen though. It was a solid year in terms of training and he's still right on track with previous players in terms of his technical skill -- though he should be a bit ahead of them if he wasn't flaking out.

91. Alexey Nikitin(100%, 7.44, ??)

Anytime a teenager is in the Top 100 it's worth noting, and Nikitin won't turn 20 for about three months. This Ukrainian has a good mental game and is almost as strong as Borja. Solid endurance and baseline play for his age, but needs a ton of work on the serve. He'll be a factor, but what kind of one it is far too early to tell. Not over-ranked though; he deserves to be here.

125. Anil Mehul(71%, 7.70, -0.26)

This is truly unrecognizable territory for Mehul, but he had a strong year in doubles and training. He's up to #11 from just 75th a year ago and along with partner Lars Kroese made the semis of the tour finals and won the Canada Masters, along with a couple of runner-up finishes. Slam showings were not as impressive, but they've demonstrated an ability to compete with any doubles team in the world.

Mehul's still getting better on that side, at 4.4 out of a 5.0 maximum. As a trainer, he's officially reached 'supertrainer' status at 5.08, a strong +0.13 this year. This year his goal is to push even higher in the doubles rankings and finish up maxing out his training on that side. Singles are an afterthought at this point.

157(J). Sushant Chiba(69%, 3.08, +1.34)

Chiba has pushed his serve up to 1.0, and I'm pretty happy with that being a good level to train up to evenly before switching to the normal distribution between skill and serve. That switch has already begun and won't take long to finish. In the meantime, he played a couple of tier-4 events late in the year; the first one was a reach but he won the second one at the very end, then got the usual ranking boost as the 18-year-olds graduated. He'll need at least two more tier-4 titles before looking to start moving up to the tier-3 events. 28-10 for his first year, comparable to Mooljee and better than Dudwadkar managed. I'll take it.

04-23-2017, 01:27 PM	#601
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2052 Preview 1. Mateo Kaspar(97%, 8.96, +0.26) Past his physical peak now, but still improving and not just a little. I have no way of comparing him to Gorritepe's best years, but he's now at least where Iglar where as this peak ... and will be getting better for at least a couple of years, probably three. Dude is just plain scary. 2. Prakash Mooljee(89%, 8.71, -0.06) The first signs of decline are now starting to show. Mooljee is still an elite player though, and he's far from done. 3. Gillo Fangio(95%, 8.73, +0.11) Fangio's on a similar path to Kaspar, it's just slower ... and he'll also decline faster. He's got two years left before he peaks, and really should push past Mooljee this season. I think he's got more in the tank than he showed most of the year, and ending by reaching the WTF final match was a good way to boost his confidence. 4. Johnny Browne(92%, 8.61, +0.08) On paper, this should be Browne's best year. Despite the unwise investment in doubles, Johnny is still quite a fine player and is capable of being a threat to almost anybody. 5. Luc Janin(93%, 8.70, +0.07) There's hardly a sheet of paper's distinction between Mooljee, Fangio, and Janin for the theoretical #2 position. It'd be nice if Luc was focused and well-managed this year; there could be some real fun battles there ... and Browne isn't far behind. 6. Khasan Zakirov(88%, 8.37, -0.04) As mentioned in the rankings update, this is where things really drop off. Zakirov is doing well, maintaining his abilities and delaying his decline effectively. I think he's got at least another year as a solid Top-10 player and WTF qualifier. The difference is in the baseline game; Khasan has the serve, but he can't compete from the back of the court. 7. Juan de los Santos(89%, 8.30, +0.03) This is a bit of a surprise; it's rare, but not unheard-of, for players to improve at all at this point in their careers. Maybe Santos has enough to stick around a bit more. 8. Tomas Niklas(87%, 8.44, -0.04) Niklas is still trying, and he's got enough left here to even bounce back up a couple of spots if the year goes well for him. 9. Philippe Besson(89%, 8.28, -0.15) Besson appears to have made the doubles turn this year at some point. His spot in the Top 10 appears to be shaky at best. 10. Tiosav Srbulovic(89%, 8.33, -0.03) There's a clear divide here: The Top 5 are around to stay and I expect them to remain the same players in whatever order. The next five though have all reached the decline phase of their careers, if just barely. There's an opportunity here for others to replace them: who will seize it? 11. Jake Jolland(92%, 8.38, +0.12) Jolland might finally be there. He only moved up two spots from a year ago, but did good work on his technical abilities. He's the kind of player who is just good enough to briefly crack the first page: and now's the time if he's going to do it, going into probably his peak year in terms of playing level. 12. Ariel Borja(97%, 8.45, +0.13) Borja has a little more time, but had a fantastic season, rocketing up from 26th position. He's a class above Jolland clearly, and won't be satisfied merely with cracking the Top 10. It's just the next step for him, not the final one. Doesn't quite have the baseline game to assure his ascendancy yet though; he'll need to be sharp to keep progressing. 13. Guus Dircx(99%, 8.47, +0.11) Also up big this year(23rd last season) is an even younger threat. I think he might stall a bit here since his technique needs quite a bit of work yet, but he's exceeded my expectations every year on his ascent so far. On paper, just good enough to beat the pack and get the theoretical #6. Definitely looks headed for the Top 5 at some point. 14. Martin Zarco(97%, 8.45, +0.09) Didn't hear a lot from Zarco this past year. He bumped up a few spots from 18th but generally hit the wall a bit. He's another guy right in the same clump. It really is remarkable how closely matched this group in the 6-14 range is here. Things are constantly changing, but right now just pick a name blindly, they are all so close. Martin's still getting better, not dramatically so, but he'll push forward eventually. 18. Milos Schmucker(96%, 8.36, +0.12) Last year I introducted Schmucker as the last man in the Top 32, a hyper-competitive spot, but he didn't stay there to the delight of Czech fans. He'll push up a bit more, but probably needs another year. 21. Shreya Ujjaval(84%, 8.20, -0.13) It's a little disconcerting that Team Sri Lanka relies on a guy who is this far past his best tennis. He's still got strong technique though, but has been terminated by his previous manager which won't help. His decline will continue, and perhaps even accelerate, after slipping from 13th a year ago. 23. Sigmund Kronecker(95%, 8.43, ??) There's a lot of veterans in the teens and 20s right now, but among them is this 24-year-old German that I've mentioned a couple times, but deserves an intro in the rundown here as he's made it into the professional class. Kronecker is primarily a clay player, good from the back but in an unusual twist his serve needs work. He's a good-enough athlete to convince me that he'll take another step forward this year. Didn't get enough matches at the end of last season though, so probably not a fast start here. 26. Ruslan Strelkov(95%, 7.83, +0.10) Russia's top hope basically treaded water in the mid-20s last season, which is not really encouraging. Bottom line is all he really has is a top-notch serve. Baseline game is still anemic and athleticism underwhelming for a top player. I don't expect much more from him, he seems to have been an early overacheiver who reached his limitations. 31. Benno Duhr(99%, 7.64, ??) Another new player, Duhr is the best Austrian we've seen in a while. He's a little short of his 22nd birthday, but I'm far from sold on him. Needs a ton of work at the back and is here mostly because he's taken good advantage of his expertise on clay. I don't think that will carry him much further, and he could peak as low as about 20th. 33. Hsuang-tsung Teng(99%, 8.15, ??) Please don't even ask me to pronounce that. Teng is 22, a New Zealander. A lot of work to do yet on his shots but he is excellent when it comes to strength and the mental side of the game, and has good endurance. I don't think he'll be a major star, but he's likely on his way to the Top 10 eventually. One to watch. 39. Vinnie Cone(100%, 7.78, ??) A former junior standout, Cone is here to remind everyone that there is no end to US talent. His serve still stinks and athleticism is just passable, so he's not a major prospect. Good enough to gradually move up though and at least get into the professional ranks. After that, we'll see. 42. Ruben Piazzola(100%, 8.04, ??) The fourth new guy this year that Dudwadkar has unsuccessfully tangled with(Duhr, Teng, Cone as well). Piazzola is about to turn 21 and a clay expert, which seems to be a good ticket to rising quickly. Aside from that, good endurance and better athleticism are the strong points for this dynamic but raw player. Not impressive mentally but could check all the other boxes. Top 10 minimum here. 63. Shyam Senepathy(90%, 7.50, +0.02) Looks like Senepathy ultimately proved me right about him not making the Top 50 in hilarious fashion. He peaked at #51 several times, and should have made it somewhat higher. He's not going to get any better at this point. 75. Ritwik Dudwadkar(99%, 8.17, +0.44) Dudwadkar clearly has the game to be ranked much higher. I did screw up on a couple of weeks' scheduling, including missing the final challenger week of the year, but mostly this is down to him just continuing to underachieve. Against the top challenger players, who he should be beating his fair share of the time, he continues to lose pretty much every time. Lose competitively, but still. He's going to be good, but he's also going to be less than he should be. The peak for him was 59th this year, and he's still up about 40 spots from a year ago. Eventually he'll start beating the best of the challenger group, and when that starts happening consistently I'll push him up to the professional Top-32 ranks as soon as possible. I'm still waiting for that to happen though. It was a solid year in terms of training and he's still right on track with previous players in terms of his technical skill -- though he should be a bit ahead of them if he wasn't flaking out. 91. Alexey Nikitin(100%, 7.44, ??) Anytime a teenager is in the Top 100 it's worth noting, and Nikitin won't turn 20 for about three months. This Ukrainian has a good mental game and is almost as strong as Borja. Solid endurance and baseline play for his age, but needs a ton of work on the serve. He'll be a factor, but what kind of one it is far too early to tell. Not over-ranked though; he deserves to be here. 125. Anil Mehul(71%, 7.70, -0.26) This is truly unrecognizable territory for Mehul, but he had a strong year in doubles and training. He's up to #11 from just 75th a year ago and along with partner Lars Kroese made the semis of the tour finals and won the Canada Masters, along with a couple of runner-up finishes. Slam showings were not as impressive, but they've demonstrated an ability to compete with any doubles team in the world. Mehul's still getting better on that side, at 4.4 out of a 5.0 maximum. As a trainer, he's officially reached 'supertrainer' status at 5.08, a strong +0.13 this year. This year his goal is to push even higher in the doubles rankings and finish up maxing out his training on that side. Singles are an afterthought at this point. 157(J). Sushant Chiba(69%, 3.08, +1.34) Chiba has pushed his serve up to 1.0, and I'm pretty happy with that being a good level to train up to evenly before switching to the normal distribution between skill and serve. That switch has already begun and won't take long to finish. In the meantime, he played a couple of tier-4 events late in the year; the first one was a reach but he won the second one at the very end, then got the usual ranking boost as the 18-year-olds graduated. He'll need at least two more tier-4 titles before looking to start moving up to the tier-3 events. 28-10 for his first year, comparable to Mooljee and better than Dudwadkar managed. I'll take it.