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The thing is Jon, every time someone advocates the eye test I think back to games like the 2019 championship game with Alabama and Clemson. Where Alabama was favored by almost a touchdown and the predictions here, and most other places were that they would win easily.
Until they lost by four touchdowns. The best experts in such things, no matter how you measure it, are wrong far more than the cited 1%. Well over an order of magnitude more often. How many games just this year did teams that were 20+ point underdogs win? So no, we really don't know.
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