Quote:
Originally Posted by revrew
Granted, this is an early report and even earlier prognostication, but here in Iowa, we've been inundated with these candidates for months, before much of the rest of the country is even paying attention. And this is my thinking thus far:
1. Warren and Sanders right now look like they're going to cannibalize each other. The fact that both of them released their "pay off student debt/tax Wall Street/free college" plans on virtually the same day right before the debates show they're vying for the same lane. That doesn't bode well for either of them, unless Sanders bows out quickly and endorses Warren (not likely, he seems a stubborn fellow).
2. In a state like Iowa, the AOC wing (read: young, progressive crusaders) of the Dem party doesn't play well outside of the major metros. So an old, experienced voice with high name recognition is going to have a commanding lead. Biden is positioned very well.
3. I think Iowa will hand Biden the win here. It's hard to see anything derailing that train in this state. The big question is whether one of the middle candidates can springboard themselves by leapfrogging the Sanders/Warren logjam. If they can, they might be able to be a legit 3rd player moving forward. I see Harris and Buttigieg (pronounced Buddha-judge) as the best possibilities. (Though I hear whispering that Buttigieg is more a media darling than a serious player right now. He may not have the money/backers to win in the long haul).
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Yeah we have had a lot of rallies here in South Carolina too-just about all of them were here for Jim Clyburn's fish fry, certainly the most buzz the Democrats have had in the state for a while. Back in 2016, there were no, and I mean no signs or major rallies for Hillary here in Myrtle Beach and the state as a whole went strongly for Trump. But there were a few Democrats who pulled off upsets in Congressional races, so it my hope the Dems will build off of that in 2020.
Biden will play well amongst the older crowd, Booker and Harris with minorities, the younger, less experienced group probably won't do well.