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I haven't really figured out my favorite candidate yet. I like Buttigieg but feel he might not be prime time material yet. He'd be an early favorite for running mate for me, as he does need to get more spotlight but I don't think Indiana is a state that is conducive to him achieving that. (Same with O'Rourke in Texas, but I'm not really all that high on him.)
A strategic perspective is what interests me most at the moment. There are three states many believe the Dems can't lose again: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. For fun let's look at some 2012 vs 2016 numbers:
Wisconsin 2012
Obama 1,613,950 votes
Romney 1,408,746 votes
Wisconsin 2016
Clinton 1,382,210
Trump 1,409,467
Michigan 2012
Obama 2,561,911
Romney 2,112,673
Michigan 2016
Clinton 2,268,193
Trump 2,279,805
Pennsylvania 2012
Obama 2,907,448
Romney 2,619,583
Pennsylvania 2016
Clinton 2,844,705
Trump 2,912,941
In Wisconsin and Michigan, Clinton clearly underperformed Obama. Since I'm from Wisconsin I looked at a few county results to see where this underperformance happened. Dane County (Madison, University of Wisconsin and some affluent liberal suburbs), Clinton actually outperformed Obama by 2000 votes. That doesn't seem to be where the problem was. Milwaukee County, on the other hand, Clinton underperformed Obama by 40,000 votes. Then there is the swing part of the state (Southwest) that is mostly rural that Clinton underperformed. But there aren't really enough votes there to rely on flipping given the strange rural lover affair with Trump. The key in Wisconsin is going to be getting people to vote in Milwaukee County. Which Democratic candidate will do that?
My cursory glance at the other two key states shows Hillary underperformed Wayne County in Michigan (Detroit) by about 80,000 votes. The same can't be said about Pennsylvania though. Hillary did underperform there, but not to the degree that Trump just flat out got people out there to vote for him. I'm not sure what to make of that.
So if my hypothesis of finding a candidate that will inspire urban turnout, which candidate will do that?
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