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Originally Posted by SackAttack
When you lynch an innocent villager tonight, that advantage drops to 11-5. If there are two more kills in the night, unless one of the kills ends up being the Turncoat, then you guys will wake up tomorrow with just a 9-5 advantage and still no idea of where to turn, except possibly henry. That means you'll *have* to get somebody tomorrow, or else wake up the next day with just 6-5 advantage (assuming the wolf cannot convert anybody), and one wrong step ends the game.
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this would be correct if, in fact, the wolf faction and the mafia faction are working in concert with each other, which i doubt, since apparently the only people that knew about the werewolf were the priest and neon chaos. therefore, there is a possibility that the wolf did the village a favor and ate a goodfella last night, and could easily do the same tonight, greatly altering your mathmatical model