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Originally Posted by saldana
this would be correct if, in fact, the wolf faction and the mafia faction are working in concert with each other, which i doubt, since apparently the only people that knew about the werewolf were the priest and neon chaos. therefore, there is a possibility that the wolf did the village a favor and ate a goodfella last night, and could easily do the same tonight, greatly altering your mathmatical model
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True. But at the same time, we know absolutely *nothing* about the wolf's role. In a normal werewolf game, the wolves would know who was wolf and who was human - just as the Mafia know who other Mafioso are and who's at least nominally a villager. Neither group knows who their "lesser" allies (like the sorcerors and turncoats) are, but they know the main players.
Now, it's possible that it's totally double-blind, that neither wolf nor Mafia know one another. It's also possible that the groups ARE working in concert. But isn't there also the possibility that, as a wild card, the wolf knows who the villagers are and who the Mafia are, while neither group knows who the wolf is? Keep in mind we don't even know that there IS a wolf. We just suspect it.
If Neon_Chaos has already thrown us one curve by introducing the wolf element, who's to say he hasn't monkeyed with the role description to give the Wolf a little bit of a leg up? I mean, consider this: The Mafia know who the villagers are, but not who the Turncoat is. That's their advantage. The villagers can use seer roles to out the Mafia. That's their disadvantage.
The villagers have numbers. That's their advantage. They can be killed at night by either wolf or Mafia. That's their disadvantage.
What's the wolf's advantage? What does he have to give him some kind of level playing field?