[Brian Swartz]

2059 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(83%, 8.87, -0.07)

30 years old, and still slightly better than any player I have every had was at their peak. I think he overachieved two years ago, underachieved last year, and I expect a middle ground this year with Mateo being a comfortable #1 probably the whole way.

2. Ritwik Dudwadkar(87%, 8.67, -0.16)

Wasn't quite as good last year as this indicates and I don't think he's fallen quite this far either, but definitely past his best tennis now. All evidence indicates we've seen his best shot, but Ritwik should still be quite good for at least another couple years.

3. Karl Kaspar(96%, 8.51, +0.12)

Only a merely-average mental game prevents him from being a real threat to the #2 spot at least. I think Prince Karl will have to spend another year of apprenticeship closing the gap before he ascends further. He should easily be able to hold off any challenge from the rest of the Top 10.

4. Gilberto Chinaglia(91%, 8.33, +0.08)

Clay expertise, big-time serve, strong mentality ... but he doesn't have the baseline play or power to consistently back it up. I honestly think he caught lightning in a bottle last year and I don't think he can do it again at RG. I usually avoid such bold predictions since you never know what can happen; but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

5. Dick Blake(88%, 8.32, -0.02)

Continuing a barely-perceptible slide, Blake is doing well staving off Father Time.

6. Guus Dircx(83%, 8.43, -0.19)

This is what switching to doubles training can do to you. Even his mental strength won't arrest this, though there's still enough ability to hang in the Top 10 most likely.

7. Hsuang-tsung Teng(84%, 8.31, -0.14)

The lure of doubles has caught Teng, also down three spots from last year, as well. His prognosis is likewise similar.

8. Gregory Mackenzie(88%, 8.31, -0.13)

Mackenzie doesn't have that excuse, and he shouldn't be declining this fast yet.

9. Tristan Allende(93%, 8.30, -0.04)

That's definitely not what I expected to see. A slight decline at his age ... yet he rocketed up here from 30th position a year ago?? One of those two things will definitely need to revert to the mean, but at this point I wouldn't expect Allende to be a threat for much more unless he is able to grow his skills.

10. Cristian Castelgali(90%, 8.27, -0.04)

8th a year ago, and he's probably near the end of his days on the first page.

11. Stuart Pargeter(92%, 8.33, +0.02)

I do have to say Pargeter should be improving somewhat more than this -- but also, that he's right there with anyone that isn't in that Top 3. Almost all of the others are declining so I still think he should spend significant time in the Top 10 this year. Any small factor could tip the scales for him in either direction.

13. Kenneth Brasher(96%, 7.80, ??)

Time to get to know the Brits. Brasher has a fine serve but is weak from the back of the court and slow. It's a mystery to me how he's risen this far this fast, but I do expect some manner of regression.

14. Hamal Sbai(93%, 8.63, +0.02)

I've never seen a player rated this high not be able to make progress. I think it's the weak serve that has cost Sbai, though it is improving. Baseline play is exceeded only by Dudwadkar, and he has the potential according to this to be the world's third-best player, ahead of Prince Karl. Hamal will need to continue his strong play at the end of the last year though -- he is quickly running out of time here.

15. Veini Aikio(94%, 8.12, +0.09)

Aikio is essentially the opposite of Sbai; he has the best serve on the tour currently, and it has brought him steady improvement.

16. Serge Cardone(91%, 8.04, +0.05)

17. Hugo Cordova(93%, 8.16, +0.13)

Cordova looks set to follow the same course as Aikio, an elite serve and a better(and quicker-improving) overall package. Not by much, but he's the one player in this range right now that seems a solid bet to make the Top 10.

20. Prakash Mooljee(73%, 7.96)

21. Adam Hagans(96%, 7.86, ??)

Hagans isn't much different from Brasher, although not as over-ranked. He also depends more on athleticism, and less on his technical abilities.

22. Lucas Kaspar(95%, 7.93, +0.17)

Limited athletic ability means Lucas will need to rely on improving his technical abilities, especially in rally situations, to continue advancing.

23. Chad Duncan(94%, 7.94, ??)

Third Brit and they are all in the same ability range. Duncan appears to be a little better technically; his serve is already quite effective. I think he could actually well end up being the best of the trio.

24. Sushant Chiba(98%, 8.26, +0.28)

I'm quite pleased with this level of improvement. At this point Chiba should reasonably expect to continue moving up. I figure he should be around 15th before long, and be on the doorstep of the Top 10 by year's end.

25. Esteban Cortina(93%, 8.18, ??)

Another newcomer. Cortina has a lot going for him, but also an abysmally-bad serve; much more inadequate than Sbai's(it's at 3.3 right now, with 4.0 the standard for top players). It'll be hard for him to produce quality results at this level so long as that continues, and he has very limited time to change his development.

27. Leo Kaspar(96%, 8.12, ??)

Leo definitely has a brighter future than Lucas in my view. He's no Mateo or even Karl, but good athleticism and mental abilities make him a near shoo-in for the Top 10 so long as he keeps developing.

31. Stanley Edleman(96%, 8.08, +0.13)

Still showing solid gains. Further evidence that last season's stall in the rankings should be considered merely an anomaly.

32. Chalerm Prachuab(97%, 8.03, ??)

Slow but a strong mental game and solid technical skills for his age. Prachuab is another meteoric player, and figures to have a very similar career path to Edleman from this point out.

36. Mike Rhodes(99%, 7.47, ??)

Rhodes is clearly not as good as his ranking would indicate, though he certainly could still be a major factor. Immensely strong and a clay expert, he's emphasized those assets and an already-quality serve into some early good results. Problem is a totally anemic baseline game that needs a ton of work. How well that works out for him will be an interesting thing to watch, but I think it will be a while before we hear anything big from him.

389. Anil Mehul(55%, 6.33, -0.26)

Even pretty-good futures players have now surpassed Mehul. His days as a champion are a long time in the rear-view mirror indeed.

65(J). Amrik Kasaravalli(76%, 4.11, +1.05)

This is somewhat below the typical improvement rate, demonstrating once again the inferior endurance issue here.


There continues to be a horde of young players coming up, while most of the Top 10 is declining. Only a couple(Karl Kaspar, Tristan Allende) are currently in place, but more will come soon.