|
For me, once I understood the concept of the 4 year cycle it all started to make sense. The 4 year cycle is driven by the Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin is the big fish, and will dictate the market.
I think the term cryptocurrency is very misleading, the future of almost all of these assets are not as a currency. Most never intended to be.
The last 4 year cycle ended in 2017. The peak was mid December 2017. This time round the peak was a little earlier, mid November 2021. A double peak cycle, like the 2013 cycle.
I think its a pretty good bet our next cycle peak will be around Q4 2025. All this talk of volatility and crypto crashing makes no sense to me. Simply refer back to this point 4 years ago.
Always possible for black swan events to have an impact, but typically the cycle gets back on course quickly.
Traditionally the bottom of the cycle has been right around the 200 week moving average, which is currently around $22k. We have already seen $25.4k so whilst its possible that was the bottom, history would indicate we likely go lower. The Bitcoin halving isn't until 2024, so it appears we have several years ahead before the market sees real strength again.
But to put things in to perspective, the bottom in the last cycle was around $2,500 in 2018. Now we are talking about a likely bottom around $22k. You will see everyone freaking out on social medial. Even if we drop in to the teens, lets say $17.5k...we would be x7 in 4 years and everyone will tell you the sky is falling.
Understand the 4 year cycle which is driven by the halving and it starts to make sense. Yet people will likely still start buying when things start rolling in 2024, and even the peaks in 2025.
Probably diminishing returns as the market grows in size, but I imagine 4 years from now people are tearing their hair out as Bitcoin "crashes" to $50k or so. Having bought at $100-150k I am sure it will seem awful, and the narrative will be no different from what it is now.
|