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Originally Posted by JPhillips
Nationally I think there's three big questions.
1. As candidates leave the race, how much of their support goes to Biden? He's got a solid 30-35% now, but where do the Harris/Warren/Sanders/Buttigeig folks go when they drop out?
2. Does that drop out period happen early enough to make a difference?
3. Will Sanders be a bad sport when he inevitably loses?
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I think the questions are how quickly will the liberal wing coalesce around a non-Biden candidate (with Warren the obvious favorite right now), and will Biden or Warren have a gaffe or poor showing that allows someone else to encroach on their lane.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyHere
It's a shame that Warren and Sanders aren't on the debate floor together as it seems like they're fighting for the same crowd at the moment.
Also I feel that the lower pollers in the 2nd night got screwed because most the air time will be focused on Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg(I still don't know how to properly pronounce this name), and Harris.
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My initial impression was like yours, but I actually think this set up benefits Warren as much as the legit 2nd tier candidates on night one like Klobuchar, O'Rourke & my favorite Booker. 2nd night will be a shitshow of also-ran's sometimes attacking Biden, but mostly trying to get their name out there, plus with Warren & Sanders often having the same positions I think it's better for Warren to be the first one saying them instead of Sanders getting to propose the idea half the time and Warren basically saying "Yeah, what he said."
If I was Warren I'd be happy with Sanders getting the same ideas out there and increasing the pie for both, and waiting until much closer to primaries to start arguing against him and saying you're the more electable one or whatever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by molson
I know perceived electability is a dangerous path to go down for Democrats but I have a bad feeling about Warren in a national election.
I hope climate change gets its due in these debates and the campaign to come.
PredictIt latest Yes Prices as of morning of first debate
Biden 26
Warren 23
Sanders 16
Yang 14
Harris 13
Buttigieg 12
Booker 5
O'Rourke 5
Klobuchar 4
Clinton 3 (Oof)
Gabbard 3
Hickenlooper 2
Everyone else 1
Warren has been surging, Sanders has been falling. Biden has come back to the pack as well. Buttigieg and Yang have stayed strong in that clear top 6.
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Can I short Yang and Buttigieg? People can point to Trump as evidence a complete outsider can make the run, but I think the Dem machine has (rightfully) been harping on how much his lack of experience is hurting the government that it'd be easy for a mainstream candidate to convince voters to go with them over Yang/Buttigieg if it's a two horse race.