[Swaggs]

I think there is very little chance Manchin switches parties. His family has a 50+ year history of being a big part of the West Virginia Democratic Party.

West Virginia is very culturally conservative and pro-coal and he reflects that in his voting. He will not ever be a part of a Green New Deal because our state’s history and culture is so based on the coal industry. People hear that but don’t appreciate it.

The state is also (even if folks won’t say it out loud) pro-government assistance and govt welfare dependent. It depends on big government because most of the wealth and infrastructure that could/should have been built in the time of coal left the state and the state is set up more like small villages/towns vs consolidated cities. Folks can justify it by feeling it is owed and paying back a prior wrong. I think Manchin is more driven by the classic elements of the Democratic Party, of helping those in need and helping to elevate them, than the cultural elements that people associate with him.

If Manchin didn’t leave the party while Obama was president or in 2017/18 when he won as a Democrat when it would have been much easier for him to switch parties, I don’t think he would now. He and Biden are pretty similar (Catholic, same generation, not “elite”/working class). I do think it’s possible that he doesn’t seek re-election in ‘24, as he’s been in public service a long time, supposedly dislikes DC, and may run for governor again (the incumbent will be term limited and Manchin has won 6 or 7 consecutive statewide elections and would be the favorite). Or he could just retire.