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Old 09-12-2006, 04:33 PM   #390
Alan T
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Long post coming - just to make sure it is clear I'm defending Anxiety in this one as well.

Pass, I want to go over yesterday's timeline looking at the votes on Anxiety. I think we have a unique opportunity to look at him, compared to anyone else in the game because he was in a tie and we know the role of Swaggs (other person in the tie) as a good guy. All of my times are CST.

12:36 CST (Post #177) - BrianD unvotes Swaggs, moves to Anxiety
12:41 CST (Post #180) - Swaggs unvotes BrianD, moves to Anxiety
Anxiety is now in the lead with about 7:15 to the lynch. No votes move off of him the rest of the way.

The votes, as of Post #180 (thanks Path)
Anxiety 3 -- ardent (146), BrianD (177), Swaggs (180)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (131), Passacaglia (153)
Swaggs 2 -- Anxiety (107), Lathum (144)
RealDeal 2 -- saldana (152), Grammaticus (169)
Conflaguration 2 -- st.cronin (77), RealDeal (170)


Also, at this point I am the only person who has not voted.

We don't see another vote come in until 4:44 (post #197) where RealDeal moves from Conflag to Blade.

Seven minutes later, GE unvoted DodgerChick. He now joins me as the only person to have not cast a vote.

7:32 PM (Post #219) - I cast the vote to tie up Swaggs and Anxiety. We now know that Swaggs was good (duke). So this obviously is not a particuarly good moment for me, and I'm annoyed re-reading it that I didn't figure out Swaggs was the duke when there was behavior that suggested this.

No votes the remaining 30 minutes. So why, if Anxiety was evil, was there almost no movement over the final seven hours of that lynch to save him? Were they just waiting me out to see where I would vote, as I had stated that I would vote for either Anxiety or Swaggs? Did they control the tie-breaker?

If Anxiety is a bad guy, then he and his teammate(s) had some serious patience on this day to not force the issue. In all likelihood they did not know that Swaggs was the Duke, so they would not take a chance of risking their teammate.

The more likely scenario is that we had two villagers colliding again and they had a decent amount of freedom to put their votes wherever they wanted. Or they were being cautious because one of their numbers had two votes on him and they needed to be able to move him out of a tie if it went in that direction.

Again, I'm willing to listen to an argument for evil Anxiety but until I somehow learn that they controlled the tie-breaker (fwiw, I consider it more likely than whatever the statistics may argue, given the changing statements by Path on how this will come into play) I'm having a hard time believing they were this patient with their votes with one of their number up for lynch.

Thoughts/comments?

Just to be devil's advocate the other possibility is that if you and anxiety were in cahoots and you started with tiebreaker then you knew you could wait and see what developed before committing your vote.

I still stand however by my stance so far this entire game that usually day one votes tend to pair up two villagers and i haven't seen alot to change my opinon of that.
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