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Here is what I would do, Year One, of the Jihad:
1). Full on campaign by the Draconis March, featuring a lot of units, to retake Errai, Small World, Caph, and then expand their holdings from there.
2). One of our Warships which was repaired by Blake, is absconded by them in order to help their own battles elsewhere. (This happened, a lot, for Free Worlds League WarShips as well. This cannot be the three they never touched (The Aegis, Black Lion or Fox) but one of those they repaired for us in Terra).
3). While defending against the Draconis March attack, a huge naval flotilla and army arrive in Nanking, to finally force us out, from the Capellan March.
4). We lose Nanking. The force pushes south to hit the Capellan Confederation as part of Duke Hasek’s Operation Sovereign Justice. He doesn’t care as much about Arboris, Zurich, etc. Not right now, while he has a major campaign underway.
5). After defending against the Draconis March attack, we push and take one or two more worlds from them. Then we are pushed back on a third planet, Ruchbah, and instead we abandon it and secure our holdings.
6). We will launch an attack and annex Quentin permanently.
7). As the Free Worlds League begins to fall apart late in the year, we begin operations, and laying intel, to attack and take nearby Worlds planets that were recaptured in Operation Guerrero, and very close to us. Worlds like Castor, Sirius, Procyon, and Talitha.
Over the course of the next few years, we are unable to get Nanking back and have lost it permanently. We defend two assaults on Quentin by the Dragon, we bring in about 6-7 worlds in the former Free Worlds League, and we strengthen our alliance with the Confederation by sending in troops to help them in their battles against Operation: Duke Hasek is Stupid
Meanwhile, eventually Blake comes to us with a variety of increasingly problematic expectations and demands. They have blocked Northwind with a naval group, in our territory and ask us to take it over, and then they want us to take out Outreach for them. Eventually, they agree to hire a bunch of mercenaries on Outreach to attack the Wolf’s, and then, after Jaime Wolf dies, and then the Dragoons attack Terra, lose, and clears a path, we will land and assault the remnants, take Outreach for the Coalition in 3070.
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