General Manager Notes: The quarterback crossroad
Give it to him or start all over?
For decades Merchantmen fans have been spoiled. We may not have had the best quarterbacks in football suiting up for us, but it's undeniable that I've done a good enough job as the general manager of this team to almost consistently make sure we had a quarterback that could legitimately be called playoff caliber. From Louie Flannery, to Rusty Harrison, to Jay McGee, Perry Coleman, Bryson Chow, the underrated Lester Lowe, Alfred Hickman, the one- or two-year rentals until we switched to Ellis McAlister, McAlister himself and most recently Moe Sheldon and now Earnest Ashley.
Hold on, I have to admit that Ashley has far form convinced me as of yet. Yes, he's got the looks of a capable quarterback, our new offensive coordinator (and the one we fired two days ago) both confirm what our staff saw in Ashley as a draft prospect. He's considered to be slightly better than expected back then, so, based on that certainly worthy of a second round pick.
Code:
rookie QB E.Ashley vs 4th year QB E.Ashley
sc ps X++_______ 10/25 . sc ps XXX_______ 35
sh ps XX++______ 15/45 . sh ps XXXXXX____ 60
md ps XXX++++___ 25/75 . md ps XXXXXXXX__ 80
lg ps +_________ _5/10 . lg ps X_________ 15
dp ps X+++______ 10/40 . dp ps XXXX______ 35
3d ps XXXX+_____ 45/55 . 3d ps XXXXXX____ 60
accur X++_______ 10/30 . accur XXXX______ 40
timin XXXX+_____ 40/50 . timin XXXXX_____ 50
s rsh XXXXXX____ 60/60 . s rsh XXXXXX____ 65
rd df X++_______ 10/35 . rd df XXXX______ 35
2m of XX+++++___ 25/65 . 2m of XXXXXXXX__ 75
scr f XXX_______ 30/30 . scr f XXX_______ 25
kck h __________ _0/_0 . kck h __________ _0
But after 3 seasons of .500 land football and completing roughly 50% of his passes, we have to wonder where we've gone wrong. Are we too high on Ashley or are we asking things from him he can't do? Some numbers:
Code:
year att/cmp c.pct yards y/cmp y/att td/int
'94 312/596 52.3 4,009 12.85 6.73 25/27
'95 320/641 49.9 4,117 12.87 6.42 27/21
'96 302/640 47.2 3,910 12.95 6.11 19/21
Missing from the equation: we've got reason to believe that Ashley, contrary to some of his predecessors, doesn't have pick machine written in his DNA. His 18 fumbles in 48 games aren't a serious concern either, it's very moderate for a starting quarterback. Which suggests that the game plan is forcing him too much into making bad throws. Perhaps it's time to look one more time at what he can do. With a new Smashmouth coordinator, providing we find some improvement in our running backs group and a suitable fifth offensive lineman, we might be able to support the pass with the run again. Our running game has fallen apart recently:
Code:
year att yards y/att td
'93 475 1,901 4.00 _7
'94 418 1,965 4.70 16
'95 376 1,551 4.13 10
'96 377 1,482 3.93 10
Simultaneously, the number of sacks allowed by the line has gone from 33 in Moe Sheldon's last season to 26, 29 and 36. Sample size issues come around here, but Sheldon was a notorious sack magnet, while Ashley shouldn't be. Is it the young incoherent line? Who knows.
Game plan changes or not, the decision here isn't just whether we like Ashley, it's also a $50M decision. We've reached the crossroad of whether we want to spend 10% of our salary cap on a quarterback. Ashley's current cap figure is $6.31, the 26th highest figure on our team. His agent is requesting a $238M deal over 4 years, a $41M bonus and increasing cap figures, from $48M this season to $70M in the 2100 season. Preferably I'll give him a flat contract, which should end up close to $60M per year. This would make him jump into the top10 of highest paid quarterbacks in the league.
Strategic decision: can I stick with his current $6.3M figure and wait for free agency next off-season? Perhaps, but of the other 31 teams in the league, I'm sure at least 2 or 3 others would be interested in Ashley. If he remains healthy throughout the 2097 season, his demands will only rise, $75M/year won't be an absurd estimation for what he might get.
The good news? We actually have the cap space available, this season. Next season will be a new test, as Ernie Grant and Richie Piotte will start asking for the moon and the stars as most elite cornerbacks and defensive ends do. But that's the day after tomorrow's concern, we haven't even made it to tomorrow yet.
Which brings me back to the original question to be answered: are we willing to commit to Earnest Ashley? Giving him the money means he'll have to be our quarterback for 3 more seasons, probably the 2100 season as well if we go bonus heavy and decide to cap him out once or twice in the next off-seasons.
The other options? The draft, we're going to interview a couple of quarterbacks, including some that are likely to drop past the first round. Trading for a veteran that looks good enough to me, that ship has probably sailed. Several have been put on the trading block, but aside from Marty Forland, who went from Oakland to Paris, they aren't an upgrade over Ashley. Which basically comes down to this: will I make an offer to Ashley now, or wait until we've seen the results of the first two or three rounds in the draft?
I think I have my plan ready, but not ready to share it with y'all just yet. After all, the competition in this league is also reading along...