SAA Conference Championship - Preview
Typically, when I do the previews I have the psych sheet to work from, so I know where all the swimmers are seeded. It allows me a pretty good insight into what is likely to happen. For instance, I would know the strength of the field in each event. Like last year when the 200 IM, 200 Free, and 500 Free had a disproportionate number of the top swimmers in conference competing. Whereas, the 200 fly and the 200 back didn't even have 16 swimmers so simply finishing the event without being DQed would earn points. Unfortunately, this year - I can't find the psych sheet anywhere so I'm going into this pretty much blind.
From the in season results, I could be a pretty exciting meet. Birmingham Southern comes in as the overall favorite, but in a couple of cases it looks like it could be pretty tight. According to collegeswimming.com the in season results based on a championship meet formats have the following:
Code:
1 BSC – 579.06
2 Rhodes – 530.12
3 Centre – 524.54
4 Berry – 510.26
5 Hendrix – 390.67
6 Millsaps– 285.42
7 Sewanee – 260.48
When I look into swim performance scores (based on the quality of the swims not the quantity) this is what the standings look like:
Code:
1 BSC – 637
2 Rhodes – 618
3 Berry – 606
4 Centre – 598
5 Hendrix – 502
6 Millsaps– 479
7 Sewanee – 394
Finally, when a run a simulation of the meet, this is what I end up with:
Code:
1 BSC – 896
2 Rhodes – 618
3 Centre – 594
4 Berry – 527
5 Millsaps– 227
6 Hendrix – 222
7 Sewanee – 220
My personal assumption at this point is that BSC will win again, but they won't win by the numbers the simulator indicates. I think they win by around 100 points or so. I do think that Center beats Berry for 3rd overall, which is disappointing because the team lost around 90 points when the 3 swimmers quit earlier in the season (Breck, Hunter, and Emilio). Plus Bear having to come out of distance swims brings his productivity down. When it's all said and done it will be interesting to see where an additional 100 points (not counting impact on relays) would have put Berry.
Bear
Unlike the previous years where Bear was competing in the 1650 Free, 500 Free, 200 Free or 400 IM, this year he's had to abandon those events due to should issues. We knew this pretty early on, but what we weren't sure about was what events he'd end up doing. My hope was he'd still be able to compete in the 200 Free and Fly, as I believe he might be able to medal in the 200 Fly. Unfortunately, the coach and he decided even training for the 200s would put too much stress on the shoulder, so he became strictly sprint. These are the events on his schedule:
100 Free (PB - 49.29 : SB - 49.44) - Bear's season best time of 49.44, brings him into this event with the 27th fastest time in conference this season, and his personal best time would keep him at 27th. This is a far cry from the top 16. The good news is that quite a few of the swimmers in front of him won't be racing the 100 Free, which is why I want to see the psych sheet. Prior to the start of each season, I take a look at the trends from the previous years to determine how likely a swimmer is to scoring in an event. I had Bear as likely to make the back end of the B final in the 100 Free. However, it's extremely close. In 2021 the 16th place swimmer posted a 49.48, in 2022 the 16th spot was a 49.41. Bear might need to get a personal best to make the B final, but based on his times in season, I think a personal best is within reach. I really like to see him in the 48s.
100 Fly (PB - 53.33 : SB - 53.76) - Just like the 100 Free, Bear has posted a time close to his personal best in this event. In this event Bear has the 18th fastest time on the season in conference and his personal best time is 16th. In my preseason write up, I had Bear as likely to make the top half of the B final, but again it's close, only this time with slipping into the A final. The 8th place swimmer in 2021 posted a 53.27, in 2022 the time was a 53.03. So with a good swim Bear might just find himself in an A final. I'd like to see him in the mid 52s. I certainly think he's capable fully tapered and motivated.
That's it, Bear will only be swimming 2 personal events, despite the fact he's allowed to swim 3. Given he's only training for 100s, that would leave the 100 breast, which while he's improved a good bit this season, isn't likely to score in what is one of the deepest events in conference. The 100 back would also be an option, and it's been a weaker event for the SAA, but Bear isn't close to getting into the 16. And the final option would be the 50 free, and while his sprints have gotten better, he'd need to improve on his personal best to make the back end of the B final, and my guess is, with the improved field, it will likely take a 22 flat to make finals in the splash and dash.
Rather than take a 3rd event that would be wasted, Bear elected to take the team approach and swim in all 5 relays. Here is how I believe this breaks down.
200 Medley Relay (B) - The B relay is Alex (back), Mac (breast), Bear (fly) and Paxton (free). It's very difficult to project the B relays because the conference only keeps the top times for each school. Also, projecting who will be on the A and who'll be on the B is next to impossible. There are so many variables that it's impossible to determine what each individual coach might do. I can say that Alex, while he won't swim back in this event, is good enough to make the top half of the B final in the 100 back based on his personal best time. Mac will likely make the back half of the A final in the 100 beast. I broke Bear's fly down above. Paxton is the real wild card in this relay. He could go sub 22 in this relay (as he's done before), but he isn't the most consistent performer (a good bit of that is probably due to the nature of the sprint free, where minor mistakes can make major differences in time). All in all, this is a very solid B group. Not sure if they win the B final, but they should have a good swim.
800 Free Relay (A) - Despite the fact that Bear has only trained in 100s, they've put him on the A relay for this event. He'll partner with Ross, Ethan and Billy. Ross is a top 5 swimmer in this event, Ethan comes in with the 13th best 200 free time in conference, and Billy is right behind with 15th best. Bear, in his limited swims at this distance is still 19th, posting a season best time of 1:48.84. I'm not sure what to expect here. If he were in shape for this race with the taper I'd expect he's swim in the 1:44 range. Not sure he can do that this time out. Hopefully he can because they come in with the 3rd fastest time in this event in conference, well behind Centre and BSC, but a couple of seconds ahead of Rhodes. If they can finish 3rd, Bear should get a medal for the event. The problem is Rhodes has 2 of the top 5 swimmers in this event, with 2 other solid pieces - it could be difficult to hold them off if they try to get that 3rd place spot.
200 Free Relay (A) - Bear will race with Sam, Noah, and Harrison in the 200 free. Sam and Noah have the 6th and 3rd fastest time in conference to date. Harrison is 18th and Bear 26th. However, the margins in this race are tiny - so every little thing will make a bid difference. Exchanges, turns, and breakouts become infinitely more important. Bear needs a good swim here to keep the team in contention for a medal. The teams fastest time of the season is 3rd, .37 behind Centre for second and .58 ahead of BSC. Something tells me BSC will be able to ramp this up from their in season times, and holding on to 3rd is going to be a real challenge.
400 Medley Relay (B) - In this medley relay, unlike the 200, Bear will slide to the Free leg as Ross moves in to take the Fly. They will team with Billy in back and Ryan on breast. Again this is a strong B relay. Billy is likely a backend A finalist in the back. Ryan, who might not swim the 100 breast, is at least a top time in the B final for the Breast, and Ross, who never really gets to race this event, could post a 51 second split, which would put him in the A finals. Again, I suspect this should be one of the better B relays.
400 Free Relay (B) - It was close here on where Bear would swim, but ultimately he put himself on the B in favor of Ross taking the A slot. Ross has gone 46 splits in relays at conference before, so his upside is much higher and it's probably the right call. Obviously, results in this meet could lead to changes in this or any of the aforementioned teams. Bear will team with Alex, Ethan, and either Paxton or Mac for this race. As I've noted numerous times - Bear and Alex post almost identical times in this event, and Mac isn't far behind. I don't suspect this relay team to be particularly strong. This is where the lack of depth has really hurt the team, and to be honest the defections early in the season. Two of the three swimmers that quit would have been factors in the free relays, and without them the team has to dig deeper in to the roster to field the team. There are so many good freestylers in swimming and in this conference, that the moment you're forced to go to plan B or C, you're forfeiting a lot to the field.
Overall - I suspect this is a bittersweet situation for Bear. He goes from being one of the best distance swimmers in the conference his first 2 years to a sprint swimmer who'll struggle to make finals. That's a let down, but there is an excitement to trying something new. I suspect he'll beat his personal best in both the 100 free and fly, which will be a nice way to go out. Moreover, getting to swim 5 relays with his buds (which has been the best part about swimming for Bear I'm sure), should make this championship his most fun and likely most memorable despite the lack of a strong individual performance.
All in all, it's probably a good thing that Bear is graduating early. Given his problems with his shoulders he likely shouldn't swim beyond this year. I just hope he has fun at the end of this journey so he can look back fondly on his time in the pool. It's been about 15 years of his life he's been in the pool grinding out lap after lap, it would be nice to go out with some good times (swim wise) and good times (fun wise).