Whiteboard States
Nebraska - Cuomo 21.6%, Clinton 21.5%, both with negative momentum
Kansas - Cuomo 17.2%, Clinton 16.5%, Warren 11.8%, with Clinton negative mo
New Jersey - Hickenlooper 11%, O'Malley 10.9%, Warren 9.8%
Maine - Clinton 13%, Kaine 12.3%
Andrew Cuomo States
Arizona - 21.7%, Clinton 19.1%
Colorado - 17.3%, Hickenlooper 13.2%
Minnesota - 15.2%, Clinton 12.5%
Missouri - 17.4%, Clinton 14.6%, Warren 14.3% with Cuomo neg, Clinton pos.
New York - 24.4%, Clinton 17.7%, Warren 13%
Puerto Rico - 19.5%, Clinton 13.7%
Mark Warner States
Georgia - 20.7%, Clinton 17.5%, Warren 13.7% and we have momentum
Texas - 16.4%, Cuomo 13%, Warren 11.9%, and both we and Cuomo are falling
Tim Kaine States
Virginia - 22.9%, Cuomo 14.9%
Wyoming - 14.9%, Cuomo 11.3% with negative momentum
Martin O'Malley States
Maryland - 23.3%, Clinton 17.4%, Warren 11.4%
Joe Biden States
Nevada - 12.1%, Schweitzer 10.8%
Ohio - 14.6%, Klobuchar 13%
Elizabeth Warren States
New Hampshire - 27%, Cuomo 15.1%, but we have negative mo
Massachusetts - 22.1%, Clinton 17.3%, and we have huge momentum
North Carolina - 20.8%, Warner 19.5% and we have momentum
Oregon - 15.7%, Clinton 14.2%
So yeah, the Oregon pickup is a little weird, but we'll take it.
I order ad production for Ohio, Georgia, and Minnesota, as I think we can make late pushes in those states. New Hampshire seems safe even with the momentum drop, so no ads there.
Turn 82
+8 Momentum in Georgia
We're starting to see the positive effects of Iowa now with some nice momentum being built up in a lot of states. For now, we'll keep working on building our infrastructure, including formally adding Georgia to our target states.
Turn 83
5 Power Warren Triumphs In Debate
Our biggest debate win yet, as we absolutely obliterate EVERYONE. Warner does terribly at -3, but that wasn't high enough to trigger the Debate Meltdown headline. Evidently we're really starting to cruise now, because we've jumped from 7 CP max per turn to 9! Excellent! Things are starting to really pick up steam now, and we're becoming a real Super Tuesday threat. Still no shot at Arizona and South Carolina, and I still believe we'll be skunked in Nevada, but we'll see how far this hype train can go.
Turn 84
+10 Momentum in Hawaii
As a sign of how well we're doing, we hit a new record for background fundraising with $48,820. We started the campaign with $6.5 million and are now at $5.93 million, so we've had to dip significantly into the chest to get the ball rolling, but here's to hoping we keep on flying.
Turn 85
16 Power Sarah Palin Debate Meltdown
4 Power Chris Christie Wins Debate
+10 Momentum in US Virgin Islands
You can see where Palin just got absolutely wrecked. This is a HUGE gamechanger, because...
See all that orange? While a few of those states are Paul Ryan, most of them are Palin, and even in the Ryan states she's been a close second. She's also been the one in front nationally as you can see in the lower right hand corner. In short, Palin was drawing upon her running as VP experience and her conservative darling status to make this race her own... until the debate collapse. Now the race is back to anybody's game. Admittedly, Palin didn't do well in Iowa with 4.9% of the vote, but she was in play for a Top 5 finish in New Hampshire and had concentrated on building up her national power base, with the plan to start making her move on Super Tuesday. That's completely vanished now, I think, barring some sort of miraculous comeback.
Too bad - I would have loved to have seen a Warren/Palin general election fight, the love of the progressives against the love of the hardcore conservatives in an all-female race.
So who steps into the power vacuum? Most obvious candidate is Christie - he was the initial favorite, IIRC, he finished a respectable 4th in Iowa, and seems poised to capture a hotly contested New Hampshire race. But I also wouldn't count out Rubio - he seems to be building a lot of momentum off his Iowa win, and Jeb Bush appears to be on the rise as well.
Turn 86
+8 Momentum in Vermont
We also had a good interview on Piers Morgan, and it got a news story, but it was buried under all the talk about Palin's flameout. We're now down to 8 max CP, by the way.
Turn 87
3 Power Clinton Scandal
+9 Momentum in South Carolina
4 Power attack ad on Cuomo and Energy in Colorado
Why South Carolina? Because my strategists were telling me had +5 Momentum there last turn, so I wanted to add to it. While we won't win IMO, if we can have a respectable showing, we can prevent our momentum from getting reversed.
Turn 88
7 Power Christie Takes New Hampshire
5 Power Warren Takes New Hampshire
+13 Momentum in Colorado
Wow. Just 0.2% is all that separated Christie from the next Bush. Talk about a close race! Palin managed to eke out 4.1% of the vote. Bottom finisher was Peter King, who tabulated a mere 0.7% of the vote.
Cuomo came somewhat close to getting some seats, but so far ALL YOUR DELEGATES ARE BELONG TO ME! Talk about a blowout win. Cory Booker finished on the bottom with 1.8%
Oh how the maps for the two main parties have changed! More on that... next update.
Nice! The Body bangs out a win