As you can see, we've now been established as Hillary's top challenger, and she's drifting back towards mid-pack status at this point in terms of momentum, looking very vulnerable. So it's not her I'm worried about. The ones I want to knock out are Cuomo and Warner - *they're* the biggest threats to me.
Warner I think will be much easier to knock out, because here's the latest polling data from the two states he's consistently held.
Texas
Warner - 16.5%
Warren - 14.5% (+7 Momentum)
Clinton - 10.3% (-1.9 Momentum)
Cuomo: 10.1%
Georgia
Warner: 21.7%
Warren: 18.6% (+6 Momentum)
Clinton: 17.4% (-3.9 Momentum)
O'Malley: 9.2%
So if I can capture both those states on Super Tuesday, it will be a devastating blow to his candidacy.
Cuomo will be much more difficult. He's losing steam compared to what he was a couple weeks ago, but if he can take Arizona, he'll have a strong foundation, and let's not forget, he just finished second in New Hampshire.
Hillary needs to start reversing her freefall - she's been a consistent 5th and 6th candidate the first two primaries, but she has to beat Cuomo in Arizona and keep South Carolina to prevent from dropping to open dogfight with us.
Republican map:
Rubio continues doing a fantastic job of making the most out of his Iowa win. While his 5.1% in New Hampshire only had him mid-pack, he's stepping into the vacuum. Going to be interesting to see how Christie handles his NH win, especially since it was so narrow - not like Rubio's more convincing opening victory.
Going to add Colorado to our list, which means once that's complete we have the following Super Tuesday states as targets:
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Colorado
Puerto Rico
Georgia
Texas
Tennessee
For now, we're not planning on competing in Ohio and Virginia of the big states, and we should be able to get small delegate wins in Hawaii and US Virgin Islands without really trying. Vermont remains a candidate as well.
Turn 90
Ted Cruz is endorsed by right wing talk radio
We do well on the Jay Leno Show and get a minor news story out of it
4 Power attack ad by Super Pac against Hillary in South Carolina on Experience
Hillary had another small scandal the turn before, but Palin's meltdown and the New Hampshire wins are still the top stories.
Turn 91
4 Power Attack ad by Super Pac against Warner in Georgia on Immigration
Turn 93
+11 Momentum in Oklahoma
Turn 94
3 Power Kaine Gives Stirring Speech On Role of Gov't
+16 Momentum in Georgia
I'm still not concerned with Tim Kaine as a threat at all. 5 days to Nevada, so time to start airing the ad and see if we can make a push to having a decent showing. We'll queue up production for a South Carolina ad, too, which I forgot to do earlier.
Turn 95
Democrats and Republicans are even in polls
+8 Momentum in Kentucky
Endorsements, the only Democrat one of which is Tim Kaine endorsed by Sen. Michael Bennett
Rather than report all the map changes this go round or post a new map, I'll make note of the upcoming states.
Nevada
O'Malley - 11.1%
Biden - 10.8%
Schweitzer - 9.9%
It's literally anyone's game in Nevada. The Top 7 candidates right now range from 11.1% to us at 8% with +7 Momentum. We're the only ones in the first 7 with momentum, but Booker and Kaine have smaller momentum.
South Carolina
Clinton - 17.2% (-6.9)
Warner - 14.3%
Kaine - 10.4% (-8.9)
Lot of crashing and burning here, including us, who have dropped to 4.9% of the vote and still have -6.9 momentum. The big risers? Klobuchar with +4, and Hickenlooper with +6. I feel like this state will be what makes or breaks the campaigns of some of the mid-tier class.
Arizona
Cuomo - 20.9%
Clinton - 19.4%
Booker - 12.8%
We're crashing here, too, with -5.9 and only 2.1% of the vote to begin with. O'Malley has slight momentum going here, but to date, this is very much a two way fight between Cuomo and Clinton.
Turn 96
3 Power Clinton Scandal
3 Power Clinton Scandal
Every little bit helps. Time to start thinking beyond Super Tuesday a bit, so I add Wisconsin to the target state queue.
Turn 97
3 Power Booker Scandal
A couple Republican endorsements, the biggest being Romney picking Christie
+8 Momentum in Wisconsin
[b]Turn 98[/b\
+9 Momentum in Nevada
Turn 99
6 Power Kaine Scandal
4 Power Rubio takes South Carolina
3 Power Biden takes Nevada
Another narrow win, but because of the threshold, Rubio gets all the delegates, which shoots him to the head of the class in terms of delegate count and gives him 2 out of 3 primary wins. Christie finished 10th with 4.5% of the vote, and the worst was Ben Carson with 1.2% of the vote.
I'm pleased to see Brian Sandoval got just 2% of the vote in his home state
To finish 6th was pretty good, I guess, but I'm a little disappointed. Felt like we had a real shot there at 3 for 3. Big win for Biden to get seats and start to make himself a relevant factor again. Another humdrum finish for Hillary. Alan Grayson logs another last place with 2.1%
Major, major win for Jesse, to completely shut out Johnson from any delegates whatsoever in this landslide rout.
My worry is that we're now in a position where we're going to fall from sexy early pick to nothing after a mid-place showing in Nevada, and expected blastings in South Carolina and Arizona before Super Tuesday.