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Brian Swartz · 03-07-2016, 10:45 AM

2044 Australian Open

Preview

This isn't so much a preview of the Australian Open as it is one of how much of at least the first half of the year will play out at the big events. There's really two separate storylines going on. The first one gets the most press and hype, and is really pretty simple: Antonin Iglar trying to return to dominance, Anil Mehul fighting to hold on to the #1 ranking. They'll play only in the finals of big events, which means there's always going to be quite a bit on the line. With only a very small gap between them, any earlier loss will be very damaging as well. That's not something that is expected to happen much of course. And here, there's even more history than usual. Iglar is the four-time defending champion; Mehul has been his foe in the last match for the last three years.

The second group is the players in the third-sixth bracket; Benda, Marcek, Girsh, and Gaskell. The interesting thing here is that Benda and Marcek have the better draws being part of the Top 4, but Girsh and Gaskell are, on paper, better players and should be replacing the veterans. In the big events, a lot will depend on whether Girsh and Gaskell get placed in the quarter matchups against Mehul and Iglar, or in preferable opportunities to knock the declining stars down a peg and gain some ground. And if it's the latter, they'll need to consistently come through and win those matchups if they intend to move up.

Early Rounds

Shreya Ujjaval made this his second Slam event, having lost last year in the US Open first round despite twice leading by a set, a five-set epic that got his feet wet but left him disappointed. That was against a Bolivian journeyman nobody has heard of; here he faced 19-seed Agustin Herrera ... and promptly won in straight sets. Then Spanish veteran Issac Malpica went down in four. Mockler ended his run in the third round with the loss of only a game to put him in his place, but Ujjaval rocketed up about 20 spots in the ranking to a new career-high of 77th. With his first pair of Slam match victories, this is a great moment for him, definitely the best of his young career. It's not guaranteed he'll ever be good enough to get past a third-round berth in a Slam event, but even if he does this is worth remembering.

The first few rounds were the usual borefest for Mehul and Girsh. A couple of seeds made the elder player work just a bit but not much -- he reached the quarterfinals without coming close to losing a set. Upsets allowed Girsh to avoid any seeded players at all, but in the fourth round American Johnny Loudermilk stole a set before meekly feasting on breadsticks the rest of the way in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 decision.

Second Week

So as usual, it was when things reached the final eight that things got interesting for the most part. The top two US players beat each other up in the previous round with Pierce Gaskell proving his superiority by ousting Radek Smitala in a match that went the distance. Gaskell took a set from Iglar, but the Czech legend soon rectified matters and prevailed there. Mehul had a tougher-than-expected road against Thiago Herrera, converting only 3 of 15 break chances and he was extended to four sets also. Benda took another four to stop the one surprise quarterfinalist, Mugur Kinczllers -- the Italian had never made it to the second week of a Slam so it was a new high mark for him. Girish Girsh meanwhile got Marcek, the matchup he wanted. Three tournaments this year, and they've played in all three -- with the same result. Triple 6-4 sets later, and it was 7-0 Girsh in sets. Three straight wins is a pretty good indicator of superiority, and it's six straight overall, but it's not nearly enough to overcome the disparity in the rankings. It'll help though, no question of that.

There was no undue drama in the semifinals. Mehul had a routine straight-set win over Benda, his seventh in their last eight meetings. Iglar beat Girsh for the 16th straight time. It was very tight for the first couple sets as Girsh did just enough on his serve to keep the champion at bay, but couldn't quite prevail in the breakers and the wheels eventually came off in the third.

And so it was on to the expected conclusion. Anil Mehul and Antonin Iglar, this time with Mehul the top seed, for the 31st time including the fourth straight AO final. By reaching this point, Mehul had already guaranteed he would stay #1 no matter the victor. He snared the first set, lost a couple close ones, but showed his determination by winning a fourth-set tiebreaker and forcing a decisive final frame. In the end it wasn't quite enough, with Iglar claiming his 5th straight crown here, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4 in a fantastic final, the first time he's been extended this far in their four meetings here. He was just a little better in the key moments, it was nearly an even match -- but the Czech was once again the deserved victor. A 12th career Grand Slam title moves him into sole possession of fourth on the all-time list and maintains the status quo in the rankings.

Coming Up ...

The World Team Cup second round against Germany, who has eliminated us the last couple of years. Grass is a more favorable surface of course, but the layout is the same: somebody needs to beat Benda. Off of clay, it shouldn't be too much of a struggle for at least one to beat him, and if we can accomplish that we get to knock them out this year, and very early. It would sure be a nice bit of comeuppance.

03-07-2016, 10:45 AM	#285
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2044 Australian Open Preview This isn't so much a preview of the Australian Open as it is one of how much of at least the first half of the year will play out at the big events. There's really two separate storylines going on. The first one gets the most press and hype, and is really pretty simple: Antonin Iglar trying to return to dominance, Anil Mehul fighting to hold on to the #1 ranking. They'll play only in the finals of big events, which means there's always going to be quite a bit on the line. With only a very small gap between them, any earlier loss will be very damaging as well. That's not something that is expected to happen much of course. And here, there's even more history than usual. Iglar is the four-time defending champion; Mehul has been his foe in the last match for the last three years. The second group is the players in the third-sixth bracket; Benda, Marcek, Girsh, and Gaskell. The interesting thing here is that Benda and Marcek have the better draws being part of the Top 4, but Girsh and Gaskell are, on paper, better players and should be replacing the veterans. In the big events, a lot will depend on whether Girsh and Gaskell get placed in the quarter matchups against Mehul and Iglar, or in preferable opportunities to knock the declining stars down a peg and gain some ground. And if it's the latter, they'll need to consistently come through and win those matchups if they intend to move up. Early Rounds Shreya Ujjaval made this his second Slam event, having lost last year in the US Open first round despite twice leading by a set, a five-set epic that got his feet wet but left him disappointed. That was against a Bolivian journeyman nobody has heard of; here he faced 19-seed Agustin Herrera ... and promptly won in straight sets. Then Spanish veteran Issac Malpica went down in four. Mockler ended his run in the third round with the loss of only a game to put him in his place, but Ujjaval rocketed up about 20 spots in the ranking to a new career-high of 77th. With his first pair of Slam match victories, this is a great moment for him, definitely the best of his young career. It's not guaranteed he'll ever be good enough to get past a third-round berth in a Slam event, but even if he does this is worth remembering. The first few rounds were the usual borefest for Mehul and Girsh. A couple of seeds made the elder player work just a bit but not much -- he reached the quarterfinals without coming close to losing a set. Upsets allowed Girsh to avoid any seeded players at all, but in the fourth round American Johnny Loudermilk stole a set before meekly feasting on breadsticks the rest of the way in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 decision. Second Week So as usual, it was when things reached the final eight that things got interesting for the most part. The top two US players beat each other up in the previous round with Pierce Gaskell proving his superiority by ousting Radek Smitala in a match that went the distance. Gaskell took a set from Iglar, but the Czech legend soon rectified matters and prevailed there. Mehul had a tougher-than-expected road against Thiago Herrera, converting only 3 of 15 break chances and he was extended to four sets also. Benda took another four to stop the one surprise quarterfinalist, Mugur Kinczllers -- the Italian had never made it to the second week of a Slam so it was a new high mark for him. Girish Girsh meanwhile got Marcek, the matchup he wanted. Three tournaments this year, and they've played in all three -- with the same result. Triple 6-4 sets later, and it was 7-0 Girsh in sets. Three straight wins is a pretty good indicator of superiority, and it's six straight overall, but it's not nearly enough to overcome the disparity in the rankings. It'll help though, no question of that. There was no undue drama in the semifinals. Mehul had a routine straight-set win over Benda, his seventh in their last eight meetings. Iglar beat Girsh for the 16th straight time. It was very tight for the first couple sets as Girsh did just enough on his serve to keep the champion at bay, but couldn't quite prevail in the breakers and the wheels eventually came off in the third. And so it was on to the expected conclusion. Anil Mehul and Antonin Iglar, this time with Mehul the top seed, for the 31st time including the fourth straight AO final. By reaching this point, Mehul had already guaranteed he would stay #1 no matter the victor. He snared the first set, lost a couple close ones, but showed his determination by winning a fourth-set tiebreaker and forcing a decisive final frame. In the end it wasn't quite enough, with Iglar claiming his 5th straight crown here, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4 in a fantastic final, the first time he's been extended this far in their four meetings here. He was just a little better in the key moments, it was nearly an even match -- but the Czech was once again the deserved victor. A 12th career Grand Slam title moves him into sole possession of fourth on the all-time list and maintains the status quo in the rankings. Coming Up ... The World Team Cup second round against Germany, who has eliminated us the last couple of years. Grass is a more favorable surface of course, but the layout is the same: somebody needs to beat Benda. Off of clay, it shouldn't be too much of a struggle for at least one to beat him, and if we can accomplish that we get to knock them out this year, and very early. It would sure be a nice bit of comeuppance.