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Old 06-14-2016, 10:48 AM   #390
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Final 2045 Top Ten Rankings

1. Anil Mehul(SRI, 29) -- 13,040

A remarkable and unexpected year leaves Mehul comfortably in the top spot at the conclusion.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 10,580

If you told me 12 months ago Iglar wouldn't win a Slam this year and would be in serious danger of dropping to third in the world, I would have said you needed a straight-jacket. Frankly he looked uninspired in '45, almost bored in fact. Iglar lost double-digit matches(81-11 is no slouch, of course) for the first time in six seasons. The question for next year is this: does he have any fire left, or he is ok with his place in history and willing to simply fade away?

3. Girish Girsh(SRI, 26) -- 10,170

Girsh was disappointing though it was his best year yet. Only one more year before aging begins to erode him from his peak.

4. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 31) -- 8,200

It's taken a lot longer than I thought, seems several years now that I've been speculating on how long it would be, but Benda's reign on clay does finally appear to be over. Even Gorritepe wasn't all that much better at this age -- Benda's determination to remain relevant into his 30s is very impressive.

5. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 26) -- 6,885

Argentina's new hero has been gradually moving up since his French Open tour de force, and I expect him to emphatically unseat Benda and move up to fourth this year.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 29) -- 4,670

As long as he's good enough to pile up points in the smaller events(500/250s), Gaskell will stay marginally relevant. Unfortunately his legacy will be his amazing Slam record: 0-15 in quarterfinals. Four straight at the AO, the same at Wimbledon where it's also five of six. Four straight semifinals(all losses) at the WTF. The mere law of averages would seem to make such a thing almost impossible. Gaskell's been good at times, but he could have been oh so much better.

7. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 26) -- 3,910

8. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 26) -- 3,870

Both Trulsen and Kinczllers are slowly but surely moving up ... but both have also basically peaked. They'll still surpass Gaskell and eventually Benda, but I don't think they have any real chance of challenging for the top.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 28) -- 3,320

Just starting his decline now. For a couple of years, Thiago was the second or third best on clay that the tour could boast. Now that this is no longer the case, his calling card has expired.

10. Perry Mockler(USA, 29) -- 3,145

Mockler had an interesting resurgence over the last few months. It'll be short-lived, but it was still a feel-good story after it looked like he was totally done a year ago.


Six of the Top 10 are 28 or older. Meanwhile, five of the next eight players are in the 23-25 range. The next year or two is likely to see a switch there but there are no obviously outstanding players in that group.

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 06-14-2016 at 10:57 AM.
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