[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I can't argue with the math, but the decision tree does not make sense to me. Maybe it's because I don't see the math on how you get to 62.5% (or more precisely, how it factors in the missed 2 pt conversion).

You win 50% win you get the 2pt conversion first.
You go to OT 25% of the time when you miss 2pt, then get 2pt. If you win half of those OT's, that's 12.5%

Bottom line for me, I don't want to have to chase the tie/OT on a missed 2 pt conversion. Mentally, I'd rather know I have OT in my pocket as the worst outcome than have that be the best outcome.

But you're looking at it from the perspective of assuming you'll miss the 2pt conversion. When you make it, you're down by 6 and just need an XP to win.

Mentally, I don't want to miss the 2 pt conversion and lose by 1 pt because I wasted an opportunity on the previous possession.