Quote:
Originally Posted by Ksyrup
Maybe it's because I don't see the math on how you get to 62.5% (or more precisely, how it factors in the missed 2 pt conversion).
|
There are 4 possible outcomes (since we're ignoring ties). Win in regulation, win in OT, lose in regulation, lose in OT.
With your strategy, kicking the XP after the first TD,
Going for 2 after TD #2:
50% Win in regulation
50% Lose in regulation
If you kick the XP and go to OT:
50% OT win
50% OT lose
Either way, kicking the XP after the 1st TD will result in a win 50% of the time.
If you go for 2 after the 1st TD:
50% Win in regulation
12.5% Win in OT
12.5% Lose in OT
25% Lose in regulation
So if you make it the first time, you win the game (obviously assuming you get that 2nd TD and kick the XP) by 1 point in regulation. That's 50% right there.
If you miss it (50%), you still have a chance to get the game to OT and win there. 50% chance to convert the 2nd try, and 50% chance to win in OT (50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%).
50% + 12.5% = 62.5%.
Think of it this way: You are given two options.
1) You get one coin toss. Heads, you win, tails, you lose
2) You get one coin toss. Heads, you win, tails, you get two more coin tosses, and if they are both heads, you still win.
Playing for OT or waiting until TD #2 to go for 2 is choosing option 1.