Roster Review
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Boner, Hilton 7 QB 14 55 61 3 yrs
Chesley, Bobby 9 QB 9 48 48 3 yrs
Ping, Kendrick 3 QB 7 36 36 4 yrs
Perry, Mohammed 14 QB 18 34 40 2 yrs
Buckner, Sherman 13 QB 3 25 37 ---
Sellers, Derrick 12 QB 4 24 36 ---
With the return of Hilton Boner, we have more than we need here. We will not carry six quarterbacks this season, but we may carry four. Boner is the unquestioned starter for us, and Chesley is very affordable for a solid backup, at least for this season.
Perry is a mentor at the QB position, and I think it’s reasonably likely we deal him before the season starts, probably to someone who has drafted a young QB. Both Buckner and Sellers are guys I wouldn’t mind holding onto, if we have the roster spots to do so. Potentially, that leaves Kendrick Ping out as a casualty… but I’m open to anything, as he’s not that bad, either.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Burnley, Jeffrey 24 RB 11 36 37 3 yrs
Doughty, Matt 32 RB 10 34 35 3 yrs
Copley, Craps 46 RB 6 33 33 3 yrs
Smith, David 30 RB 6 32 32 2 yrs
Lee, Lewis 33 RB 3 20 21 ---
Emerson, Charles 42 FB 3 50 68 2 yrs
Richardson, Nicholas 44 FB 6 46 50 2 yrs
This team has never been strong at the RB position, and that continues. Jeffrey Burnley was our workhorse back on 2003 and 2004, posting about 1700 yards over those two seasons – but he has never averaged even 4 yards per carry. The last two years, he has slipped back to become a complementary runner, working mostly behind Jeffrey Amburgey, a decent veteran RB we dealt for in early 2005. However, this offseason, we lost Amburgey via free agency, to a team that seems to be aggressiveley collecting mentors – so he is gone.
Doughty is a utility back, a good pass catcher, and good special teamer. He played most of last season as our third RB, and was pretty effective – 53-220 rushing (4.15 ypc) and another 185 yards receiving. I expect him to make the team, but don’t have high hopes that he is capable of stepping into a larger role – I don’t think he can get it done between the tackles at all.
We signed RB Craps Copley as a free agent, with an expectation that he would compete for the starting duties. He has been a starter for Las Vegas, but has never been too effective there – so we have had mixed feelings. He also does not get along well with position leader FB Richardson, which raises some concern as well.
FB Charles Emerson was a first round pick, who I expected to be a complete do-it-all player. However, I was very disappointed to see him regress after his first training camp rather than “boom.” So, we have an overpaid fullback who doesn’t really have the skills to be featured at either TE or RB… instead we use him for short yardage situations, and as a spot player as needed. Cutting him doesn’t save us much, or else we’d consider it - he likely will slot again as our starting FB, a position that gets fairly little use in my offense that features many multi-receiver sets.
FB Nicholas Richardson actually has a shot to start the season as our featured back this year. He oddly enough has a void in “power inside,” but is otherwis pretty solid, with ratings of 50-75 in most areas. Last season, we rotated him in at HB for a fee games, with decent results. I’m open to him as a HB possibility, especially in the absence of particularly strong alternatives.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Rego, Clyde 88 TE 10 62 66 4 yrs
Lannon, Clay 82 TE 4 21 34 1 yr.
Kerr, Gino 28 TE 3 20 36 ---
Our offense doesn’t employ the TE on a full-time basis, so this position ends up being largely reserved for special teamers and role players. However, last year in free agency, we landed Clyde Rego on a pretty affordable deal, and he stepped right into the role. He’s a star-caliber player who grabbed 45 catches for us last year – and ought to have a comparable role this season. We expect to secure a long term renegotiation with him, and lock him up for the foreseeable future.
Lannon and Kerr are role players, in all likelihood only one will make the team. It will be a tough call, as Lannon is an affinity guy and a solid long snapper and special teamer, while Kerr (we believe) has some undeveloped potential and is also good on special teams.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Jackson, Mark 86 FL 10 44 49 4 yrs
Berkey, Justin 81 FL 9 42 46 5 yrs
Meneses, Marcus 87 FL 7 40 44 2 yrs
Peter, Walter 89 FL 12 39 39 2 yrs
Kahn, Ryan 85 FL 6 31 34 2 yrs
Castellano, Jimmy 80 SE 8 33 38 2 yrs
For a pass-happy team, one might expect more standout players here, but we didn’t invest early at the position, and have not had the top draft picks necessary to land high-quality young talent. So, instead, we have a nice fleet of role-players, all of whom contribute fairly well.
Mark Jackson has the most overall talent of the lot, in my book, and has been solid for us for four seasons. He’s very consistent – about 3200 yards in 64 games, no season below 700 yards, none above 900. Pencil him in for about 55-800 and 6 TD.
Justin Berkey generally starts in the slit end slot, and has seen his role grow over time. He broke the 1,000-yard barrier last season (our first player to do so at any major stat) and is our career leader with 3,677 yards receiving and 29 TDs. He will drop a pass or two, but he’s a classic case of a decent receiver with a high “route running” rating (my scout says 78) making for a pretty nice set of stats when it’s all said and done.
Marcus Meneses generally starts in the slot, as the third receiver. That role got him on the field for 452 pass plays last season, so it’s essentially a starting role. He posted 931 yards in that spot, and his 16.6 yards per catch was a team high.
Behind those three, we have decent reserves. Walter Peter is a solid veteran and a position mentor, who had a 1,000-yard season in 2003 with Duluth. Ryan Kahn and Jimmy Castellano are fairly high-skilled guys who have low ratings in route running, so when they see field time, it tends to spike the production of other players as much as anything.
I am comfortable with this group overall – no real standout, but we get solid production from the lot of them, and now that we have a solid TE threat to work underneath, the options for Boner are quite plentiful.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Wallace, Richard 55 C 6 56 58 3 yrs
Johnson, Reinaldo 51 C 9 39 44 3 yrs
Houtz, John 52 C 9 38 45 1 yr.
Lyon, Brett 53 C 2 23 43 1 yr.
Beaton, Daniel 69 LG 7 35 35 1 yr.
Shaffer, Joseph 77 RG 12 44 44 3 yrs
Rumph, Hugh 76 RG 3 28 40 4 yrs
Rapaport, Larry 65 RG 3 23 47 ---
Gourdine, Derek 62 LT 4 50 58 2 yrs
Tilton, Stanley 79 LT 3 35 64 2 yrs
Boyd, Lenny 70 LT 2 28 48 3 yrs
McElroy, Leonard 63 RT 3 35 47 1 yr.
Well, this line has been almost completely rebuilt since the franchise started. Our “noble experiment” gave decent results in year one, but the affinity foundation fell apart, and it was impossible to restore, so I have resorted back to the tried-and-true method of just trying to acquire good players.
C John Houtz is our last remaining original starter who has kept his job, and is now the position leader. He’s a four-year starter, whose career stats include about 30% key run blocks, and about 1.3% sacks allowed. Not that great, admittedly, but he’s cheap and a decent leader for the group.
We signed two veteran centers in free agency this year, starting with Richard Wallace. Wallace looks like the best of the lot here – a solid pass blocker, which is what we need. Career stats are okay – 27.2% and 1.1%, and I expect that we will move him into the LG slot that was vacated by a free agent departure this offseason. We have Wallace on a contract for $2,000,000 this season, so we would like to get some return from the investment. Our other signee is Reinaldo Johnson, a guy I pursued as a contingency to Wallace. He may not make the team, but if he does, he probably lands as a sixth OL and reserve to most every position.
LG Daniel Beaton, our other original lineman, started for us in 2003 and 2005, but was replaced last season. His career stats are actually quite good (35.0% and 0.8%) and based on that he probably deserves a shot to start. He does not have particularly good ratings, though – and I often defer to the scouting judgments. Tough call. We signed RG Joseph Shaffer to come right into that spot, which could pinch Beaton from his job – Shaffer appears to be more effective, though his career stats (28.4% and 0.8%) are not outstanding either.
At tackle, we are young and solid – we spent first round picks on LT Derek Gourdine and LT Staney Tilton, and both are good starting-caliber players. Neither one is a star, and once their initial contracts expire (following next season for both guys) we may have challenges, but for now, I am comfortable with them as our bookend starters. Reserves Boyd and McElroy are both decent, pass-inclined guys who could get playing time if needed – it would be hard to part with either guy, as they are both cheap and great fits for our system here.
Nothing to be overwhelmed with by this group of players (as is the case with the whole offense) but I don’t think the line is a liability.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Embry, Donovan 6 P 2 35 41 1 yr.
Mizer, Donald 10 K 9 29 29 2 yrs
Nothing special about these guys. Embry was an undrafted rookie free agent last season, but posted a lousy 37.8 average. I will look for a cheap replacement, though I think he’s capable of better.
Mizer is a veteran, has been with us for four years. 77.6% on FGs is okay, but 7 missed PAT is a bit much. I’m not sentimental – he may be the team’s leading scorer to date, but if a cheap and solid option comes along, he can get his papers any time.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Hall, Alvin 98 LDE 7 79 85 2 yrs
Gritton, Randolph 99 LDE 8 39 42 3 yrs
Kleinsasser, Cornelius 90 LDE 5 35 45 3 yrs
Buxton, Richard 92 RDE 13 78 78 2 yrs
Shihi, Donald 72 RDE 14 47 47 3 yrs
Clavell, Lamont 74 RDE 3 18 37 ---
Santos, Martin 96 LDT 9 49 51 3 yrs
Bradham, Eugene 93 RDT 9 65 65 4 yrs
Brown, William 78 RDT 10 40 41 3 yrs
We invested early along the defensive line, and it shows. We have some bona fide talent here, and the defensive line played a huge role in our championship run a couple seasons ago.
DE Alvin Hall was our top draft pick, and he is a solid threat against the run and pass. Last year, he had his best season to date – with 72 tackles and a PRPct of 7.7. He remains very afforable this year and next – then we’ll have to effort to secure him long term.
DE Richard Buxton was our trade target – twice. Now he is on a contract with us, and expects to start on the inside for us, as a potent run stopper. I have played him at DT, DE, and even OLB, and he has been effective everywhere. He was great in 2005 (73 tackles, 5.9 PRPct) but has remained very effective in any role – a great contributor for us.
DT Eugene Bradham had a monster season in 2004, posting 71 solo tackles and 16 sacks (7.0 PDPct) all from the DT spot, making him one of the most valuable defensive players in the league. He remains a major threat, but missed much of last season to injuries. I’m hesitant to hang our lack of defensive success on his absence, as he’s only one player, but getting him back and healthy would be a great boon to us. He looks fine, and we hope he is 100% ready for the season ahead.
DT Martin Santos generally operates from the RDE spot, as he is first and foremost a pass rusher. I signed a lucrative extension with him, which may have been a mixed blessing, but he is pretty consistent – posts about a 7.0 PR Pct every year, which is a solid number to count on.
Last year, we went through the season with only six defensive linemen, the lower bound for a 4-3 team like we are. This season, we will have some depth. We have run-stopping DT William Brown in the fold already, and have just re-signed verstaile DE Cornelius Kleinsasser. We add to the fold DE Donald Shihi, who has been an effective starter for Burlington (career PR Pct of 9.0) and I will be creative in getting him opportunities to play as well. Another new signee, DE Randolph Gritton, will have to fight for a roster spot.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Dennis, D.J. 57 SILB 4 29 38 1 yr.
Watkins, Steven 95 WILB 9 56 61 2 yrs
Galvan, John 58 SLB 6 60 63 4 yrs
Kuykendall, Travis 56 SLB 2 40 59 3 yrs
Dupree, James 54 WLB 10 53 56 4 yrs
Harrold, Urso 91 WLB 10 36 36 3 yrs
Doyle, Dixon 97 WLB 4 23 36 ---
We started with two solid players at the LB position in pass-rushing specialist John Galvan and run-stopper Steven Watkins. James Dupree was an impact signing in 2005 free agency, and then Travis Kuykendall was our top draft pick last year.
Deciding how to use Kuykendall is our biggest challenge here. Our weak linebacker gets pulled a lot, so starting him there amounts to only half time work to begin with. Last year, he got extra playing time when we used him as a safety in our injury-ravages secondary. But only 26 solo tackles in over 500 plays suggests he has some work to do, still. My expectation is that we will so with Galvan-Watkins-Kuykendall as our S-M-W lineup, and will slot Dupree in as the all-purpose reserve at all three spots.
Veteran free agent Urso Harrold has a mixed bag of skills – we may use him, but he is mostly there in case of injury. D.J. Dennis much the same – nice special teamer, could play in a pinch, but not a major asset for us.
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Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Raab, John 39 LCB 11 59 63 3 yrs
Kindred, Howard 48 LCB 4 45 45 2 yrs
Peterson, Britt 26 LCB 3 20 27 ---
Nave, Ferdy 34 RCB 7 49 49 3 yrs
Ashurst, Bradly 22 RCB 10 44 48 3 yrs
Scanlon, Billy Joe 35 RCB 1 25 59 ---
Carr, Mark 36 SS 9 58 58 1 yr.
Bella, Peter 47 FS 16 75 75 1 yr.
Kettler, Chappy 49 FS 7 46 46 3 yrs
Hornick, Les 38 FS 14 41 41 1 yr.
The secondary has been a focus of much attention – but I believe we have made great strides here. Projecting Raab and Nave as our starting corners gives us two guys with man coverage skills (86 and 67, respectively, by my scout) to handle the assignment. And we will have good depth, with former starter Howard Kindred (former first round pick, modest bust, but still decent player) and top rookie Billy Joe Scanlon aboard as well.
At safety, Peter Bella is the complete package, and Mark Carr is a productive starter as well. Chappy Kettler is a scrappy and improving journeyman, who will get reserve time at both spots. CB Bradly Ashurst and S Les Hornick basically reverse roles – Ashurst is a big hitter we use as a safety sometimes, while Hornick is a coverage specialist who has logged 49 starts, mostly as a cornerback. Both will get time in the mix this season.
In the return game, our best contributors are RB Lewis Lee, who can return both punts and kicks, and probably keeps his roster spot just for those skills. We have several other KR options, including RB Jeffrey Burnley, S Mark Carr, and S Les Hornick.
So, that’s a basic rundown of the club at this point. In a league where the overall talent level is still pretty low, we are a team built mostly of veteran players. I have not invested heavily in the draft, and have not yielded a great bonanza from the picks I have made – so we are mostly dependent on the veteran players on the squad. Our team has an average age of 27.8 – making us the third-oldest club in the league. I’m not surprised.
At the moment, our roster rates 1 95 on the “franchise value” screen, but that is likely full of noise as some teams who do not have a full roster are being unfairly penalized for that. We may revisit that rating later, but I do expect to be in the upper tier of the league in that respect.