[Breeze]

Summer League County Championships

For the County Meet, each swimmer can pick 3 races, 2 to swim for points, and 1 to exhibition (in order to get a time and be considered for the State relay teams). On our team the kids initially pick the events they want to swim, but then some adjustments are made to maximize points, under the previous scoring rules only 2 kids could score per team per event, so no use in putting 3 good swimmers in the same event and wasting points (the new system apparently doesn’t limit a team to just 2 kids scoring per event). Thus we try to project what events the county heavyweights are going to choose and determine where our best chance to be successful might be.

There are only 6 races…

Short Free
Long Free
Back
IM
Breast
Fly

And most all of the heavyweights pick the short free to exhibition for the Free Relay. That leaves just 5 races with the IM and long free being standalone (no possibility of getting on a relay in those events), the options of what to swim start to get really small…

-----------------------------------------------------------
Bailey

I know I’ve mentioned it before, but it bears repeating here…there are a lot more female swimmers, especially under 14 years old, which makes it much tougher for Bailey to do well when she’s on the younger end of the age group. The female swimmers are also typically more dedicated so if they swim at County, they are likely to swim at State, thus reducing the likelihood that she might slip into the Meet through the backdoor.

50 Free - Bailey knew up front she was going to swim the short free for exhibition in hopes of getting on 1 of the 3 free relays. Her personal best is a 30 low and she’s been there all summer even after having a swim practice just hours before the meet. So I’m hopeful that this will mean she can go a bit faster. Obviously with 3 Free Relay teams, 12 girls make up the lineup, but typically there are quite a few that don’t elect to go. This season there are only 2 currently seeded higher than Bailey that aren’t going…and Bailey is seeded – 13, which sounds good right. Only problem is there are 3 very good year rounders at least that are listed with NTs and could beat Bailey. It is going to VERY close…it could all come down to how quickly she gets off the blocks. If Bailey can get under 30 she has a chance, if she can get under 29.75 she should make it…

50 Fly – Bailey’s best stroke right now is the fly, and there was no doubt she was going to swim it at County. Problem is there are 7 twelve year old year rounders ahead of her. IT’s really tight…fourth place is less than a second faster than Bailey, and the girl seeded second isn’t going to state, so a good swim could get her in the top three, but it is a bit like golf. It isn’t as much about how many strokes or in this case seconds you are behind, it about the number of people between you and the lead. She’ll have to beat a lot of really good swimmers to get top 3. This is probably the deepest field of all the events in the girls 11/12 age group.

100 IM – Bailey ended up here as part of the juggle to make sure we had only 2 of our best swimmers in each event, but she was fine with it and she’s good at the IM anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. Bailey is seeded seventh, and everyone in front of here is a year round swimmer. Even a personal best here by over a second and the best she can probably get is sixth…

11/12 Girl Relays – Bailey will be on the B relay for both the Medley and the Free and that means she won’t get a medal. The A team will almost definitely be in the top 3 of both (and could win outright actually). The B team with the four best girls in both the Free and Medley would be very strong and would beat many A teams, but Caroline from CRC isn’t going, and she’d be a big part of the B group. As it is, Bailey’s relay will probably finish 6 or 7…

-----------------------------------------------------------

Bear

50 Free – Bear is also exhibitioning the short free. Bear is seeded fourteenth (Brett is fifteenth), but there are four boys seeded higher that aren’t going to state, but there are also 3 good swimmers entered with NT. Like Bailey this will be very close…If Bear can get under 31 he should make it…my guess he’ll have to be at least a half a second faster than his personal best of 32.08 to have a shot.

IM – Bear is seeded fourth in IM, with 1 kid in front not going. So he has a legitimate shot to make it here, which is a surprise given how many horses there are in this age group. There are three kids right behind Bear that could pass him, so he’ll have to swim well, but we stumbled into a pretty weak event this time around (last year I screwed Bear up by having him skip the IM and it cost him an event at State).

Fly – remember I said there weren’t a lot of options on what events to choose, and remember I mentioned the IM didn’t have many horses at all…well the Fly is the exact opposite. In fact, I flat out state the Fly has 6 of the top 7 boys in the age group racing. Bear is seeded eighth and he’ll do well to hold that spot. This is undoubted the most loaded event I've ever seen in our 6 years of coming to County...and I can't wait to watch it...

Relays – I’ll cover them in Brett’s write up since they are in the same relay…

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brett

50 Free – See Bear’s write up the information is the same. Brett’s seed time is .01 second slower than Bear…going to be interesting to see who is faster on Saturday…

100 Free – Brett is seeded fifth, with one kid in front of him not going, but there is one NT that is clearly faster than Brett and another one that is right there with him. It will be interesting to see how he does, but I’m not expecting him to even finish as high as his seed, but he could post a personal best

50 Breast – Brett comes in with the top seed. His time on record is 37.75, which I think is a bad time. I timed him in that race and had him at a 38.08 and another mother timed him at 38.18…both good times, but the kid that beat Brett by .04 seconds 2 years ago is right behind him with a 38.03, and there are 3 other boys all under 40 seconds. I’m going to get ill before this race, I can tell…Brett will have to have good pullouts, a quick turn and a long finish to win this (he’s short armed his finish the last couple of races).

A win here would be huge for Brett for a couple of reasons…Brett didn’t win a medal in county last year and hasn’t won the Breaststroke for summer league the last 2 years. This would be huge for his confidence and self-esteem. Also, Brett’s buddy Jack is shoe-in to be the butterflyer or backstroker on the A medley relay at county, and his other buddy Hunter looks like the odds on favorite to be the A freestyler…if Brett can win the breast he’ll be on the relay with them, and they’ll have a shot to earn a top 3 medal at state.

Relays – the boys are currently seeded third in the medley relay, but the team seeded fourth is Aberdeen who beat them on Thursday (6/20). Just not sure how much of a difference the freestyler at the end will make (the normal freestyler was out against Aberdeen). In the free relay, the boys are again seeded third, but there are a bunch of big names in relays behind them in the sheet, and I doubt they end up third. However, they obviously have a couple shots at team relay medals, hopefully it pays off for them