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Brian Swartz · 06-11-2019, 08:05 PM

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1. John Hart(87%) - 8.69, -0.04

Hart is staying afloat based on outstanding technical abilities, and didn't lose much this year.

2. Nicolas Perez(95%) - 8.66, +0.14

Two more years at least to improve, and Perez has already reached a level of technical ability that I've rarely approached and never sustained. On paper, he and Hart are now a near-even match. Neither has a draw advantage over the other as both will always have a good path to the finals, where they'd play each other. I'm still predicting Perez to take over the top spot at some point this year. He's overperformed against Hart historically, and before long he should actually surpass him by rating. But obviously it's close enough that there's no way to know for sure which player prevails.

3. Srba Dogic(92%) - 8.35, -0.03

The meteoric Dogic is younger in years but older in mileage than Perez. Whatever he's going to do in terms of closing the gap will happen in the next year to 18 months. After that he'll be sliding back down the mountain. Interestingly, the numbers say he actually got slightly worse last year. He definitely doesn't have the baseline play to hang with a lot of top players, nevermind the two ahead of him, and his athleticism can only make up for so much, so there's really no chance of him threatening the power couple at all. Getting a secure station as third is the best he can hope for and I wouldn't bet the farm on that even happening. The fact of the matter is that he's fortunate to be where he is.

4. Ali Solberg(89%) - 8.62, +0.01

At this point Solberg has to be classified as somewhat of an underachiever. Solid elite-level technique, still quite fast, but he's never put it all together. He has his moments, but can't get there consistently. It's he, not Dogic, who really has the game to threaten. Based on what we've seen though, I'm pegging him to simply grab the #3 and just chill out well back of them.

5. Seamus Hughes(86%) - 8.47, +0.01

Impressive management work to have a player of Hughes' age basically holding steady after a significant decline last time. Cement feet appear to be his achilles heel, stopping him from competing on return against top servers. His own serve is as good as anyone's, better even that Hart or Perez, and as long as that's the case he figures to stick around and be relevant. Dogic should be worried about him as well.

6. Barry Molyneaux(85%) - 8.50, -0.03

The baseline play, always a weakness, continues to fade and is no longer even competitive. On the other hand, Molyneaux is a mental demon and still quite physically powerful. He should definitely stay in the mix.

7. Isa Solheim(89%) - 8.42, -0.08

Solheim stumbled a bit last year, unlike the other veterans, and dropped a half-step behind them.

8. Brian Meikeljohn(85%) - 8.66, -0.20

I only mention Meikeljohn because it's mandatory to include all Top-10 players. You can see here what a cliff you fall off when you leave a player be at his age ... and yet he's still basically equal to Hart/Perez theoretically even with that decline. Not that it'll matter. Wave to him as he disappears.

9. Emilien Mathou(91%) - 8.45, -0.04

Pretty much a copy of Dogic, only with better footspeed, Mathou has a quality serve, inadequate all-court play, and good athleticism. And the same basic meteoric aging path. Emilien halved his 18th ranking from a year ago, and more is expected of him this year.

10. Calisto Aviles(97%) - 8.44, ??

I don't know if I've ever introduced a player for the first time who was in the Top 10. So what's the deal with Aviles here? Well, his serve is more than good enough but baseline play isn't his forte. Most notably, he's a little on the weak side but is nearly as fast as Meikeljohn was in his heyday. A classic defensive clay-courter ... except that he's focused on the serve instead because reasons. Definitely has to be considered one of the world's best on the dirt, and his career will be defined by whether he ever becomes good enough to be a force on the hardcourts. I think he'll see significant improvement there eventually, maybe this year. After looking at his abilities and youth, I've come around on Calisto a bit. Still a fluke title last year I think and he's probably somewhat overranked, but not by much.

Top 10 Analysis

Interesting that #3 Dogic is clearly the worst player in the Top 10 by rating. That shows the competitiveness and the importance of getting fortunate enough to push beyond your seeding a couple times. Doesn't hurt him to have maxed-out proficiency on the most common surface either.

'65 Avg - 8.573
'66 - 8.532
'67 - 8.526 (-0.06)

The strength of the group continues to decline, even with Meikeljohn still hanging about. There are still more fading than there are improving. The changing of the guard has started to happen, but it's far from being fully achieved.

11. Chisulo Mpakati(96%) - 8.46, +0.12

Mpakati's technique is getting closer, allowing his impressive athleticism more room to flourish against elite competition. Another meteoric talent, he has probably two years to get this done. Lots of players hoping to make a run at the Top 10 this year but he's the best-positioned, after finally making a move up from 19th last year.

12. Lucas Perez(95%) - 8.32, ??

Another newcomer, it just seems Perez has been around longer because he made his mark early - SF in Monte Carlo, final in Rome, an early home-country 250 title, etc. But at this time last year he was still playing Challengers. Big leap, and we'll see if he's ready for more. Baseline play still needs some work, but not that much - a plus serve and good power are his best assets. As a clay specialist he'll be a big threat there, but I don't think he has the game to break through on other surfaces just yet. Hard to see him moving up much this year.

14. Il-Sung Jung(95%) - 8.70, +0.10

The door is still very much open for the doubles #38 to abandon that pursuit. He could be a legit rival to Perez, but there's no signs of that happening. On paper he comes in just ahead of Hart as the best player in the world, and he's not even Top 10 yet. Up from 26th a year ago, and I honestly don't know what happens for him this season because it depends on where his mind's at. If he makes up his mind to push upwards though, he's coming. He's that good.

15. Ollie Haas(94%) - 8.49, +0.08

Attempting to be a jack of all trades, Haas succeeded only at Wimbledon, and is right where he was a year ago. Only a crowded field has kept him from reaching higher.

16. Harald Wentz(96%) - 8.50, ??

Another newcomer who feels like he's been here forever because we've been watching him. Still inconsistent, Wentz relies on his serve - which is the equal of any active player's - too much. Next couple years for an athlete of his caliber should pace him to more consistency, as should getting above the Top 16 breakpoint.

There's basically no difference in the players from 3-10 as there is 11-16. These last few should been seen basically as the 'extended first page'. I expect more struggles for the higher-ranking guys in big events as they have to deal with this kind of resistance on a consistent basis, and more chaotic results.

17. Sushant Chiba(82%) - 8.36, -0.12

Holding on to whatever I can basically, until it's time to go doubles. There really isn't much more to do than that. Technique is down to standard-elite levels of 5.0/4.0, while athleticism is a distant memory only. Mental excellence is the only major card he has to play, and in this environment that's not close to enough.

19. Tim de Jong(92%) - 8.48, +0.15

I've never seen a player drop six spots with this kind of improvement. That just about says it all - there are going to be some really good players who slip through the cracks and it looks like de Jong might be one of them. There's just room for only so many, and he's only got this one last year to improve.

21. Constantino Gonzoles(91%) - 8.52, +0.01

At his peak, better than multiple players in the Top 10, and unable to even get close. This era is just insane with the depth.

22. Clavet Moniotte(93%) - 8.25, -0.02

Strange time to be treading water at best. Moniotte desperately needs a boost to his baseline play, or this might well be known as the highest he ever pushes. Was 21st last year.

23. Santino Belmon(94%) - 8.49, +0.08

Slid up a few spots from 27th, which under the circumstances is a laudable achievement. Belmon is just looking for an opportunity like so many others, and wondering if he'll ever get one. Should still have two more years to create an opening.

24. Tobias Velilla(97%) - 8.30, ??

Say hello to our latest young flash-in-the-pan. Whatever Tobias is going to do, he needs to do it quickly. He's got one of the best serves in the world, but is unremarkable otherwhise. I wish him luck - at least for the time being, he'll need it.

25. Acke Kjaerstad(96%) - 8.38, +0.07

Not quite as much improvement as one might have hoped for, and Kjaerstad stays right where he was last year.

30. Algot Hakanson(94%) - 8.21, +0.07

Another marginal Swede who didn't move an inch in the rankings. Under-developed baseline play is the culprit in both cases.

31. Patrick Sanchez(91%) - 8.30, ??

Probably the most athletically gifted player around right now, above even Mpakati and Wentz, Sanchez here hasn't been handled the best over the course of his career. A doubles diversion didn't help, and and he's not as technically developed as you'd expect a player to be at 26. So he's relegated basically to being a pain in the butt for a couple years for anyone trying to get out of challengers.

32. Santino de Jesus(98%) - 8.08, ??

The final spot goes to this German with a decidedly not-German name. He's gone all-in on the hard-court/grass combo, not a typical path but one with a certain logic to it, foregoing any chance at decent clay results. Serve is already there, quality athleticism, good mentality, ground strokes need work per usual. Even with a fast-ticking career clock he still has time, but he's really breathing air above his pay grade right now. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip back down to challengers.

34. Amrik Kasaravalli(95%) - 8.42, +0.24

Two years from his peak, and back into Challengers. To say he's running out of time is an understatement, and after last year finished at 37th ... this is all too familiar. On the other hand, he is still improving and really should be good enough to beat a lot of the players ahead of him - in fact he's now on paper Sri Lanka's best player. But how much of that will actually show up on the court with the brick wall arrayed above him? Need a few more of those close matches to go his way this year.

38. Helmut Edlund(98%) - 7.77, ??

Solid all-around with doubles diversion in evidence and the lacking technique you'd expect from that, Edlund is going with the exceeding rare Clay/Indoors combo. More importantly, he's pretty much as high as I think he gets until the technical side catches up with his ranking.

41. Joao Narciso(98%) - 7.87, +0.22

Everything I just said about Edlund is basically true here as well. Good boost for him from 70th in the rankings last season, but while I'd love to say he's going to jump up and grab a Top 32 spot soon I just don't think he's quite good enough to do it yet. Depends on how many vets slip down into this tier I suppose, but it might be another year for the Brazilian.

43. Willy Weigl(99%) - 7.74, ??

Clay/Indoors again here for Weigl. Serve is getting close, he's strong with good mentality, but the baseline game is frankly anemic for a player of this level. In terms of the overall, though Narciso's distribution is more classical, Edlund/Narciso/Weigl are three peas in a pod. Gatekeepers at the elite challenger level basically, trying to forge a path above the break line but unlikely to do so just yet.

93. Girish Shivakumar(99%) - 7.41, ??

I wasn't looking at these guys last year so there's nothing to compare to. Shivakumar's game is all about power, and he's all-on on hardcourts while moving steadily up into the Top 100.

97. Shakti Vemireddy(99%) - 7.57, ??

The more athletic Vemireddy isn't quite there with Shivakumar technically, but still looks the superior player to me. He's decided to go clay, which makes some sense given his natural abilities.

124. Tommy Fitzpatrick(99%) - 7.61, +0.59

A nice gain for a player who was maxed-out physically at the start of the year. TFitz - I'm going with it barring another nickname - should start being a major threat to any challenger-level performer soon.

How about Fitz and Chits for the rivalry. No??

125. Mark Smith(100%) - 7.47, +0.71

Right there with the others, even though he's a bit younger.

130. Nasir Chittoor(99%) - 7.47, +0.84

The last big improvement year for Chittoor - things will slow down somewhat now as he only benefited from half a year of aging gains and has another year-plus before that starts reversing. This year his goal is to push up to about 8.0 and be ready by the end of it to start making his run at getting out of Challengers. The numbers say he's just surpassed Shivakumar, but still trails Fitzpatrick and Vemireddy overall. I can't argue with that.

192. Rakesh Kayeeda(99%) - 7.22, +0.80

Nothing to complain about here as Kayeeda makes his way into the Challenger tier.

208. Ritwik Intodia(99%) - 7.42, +0.74

Faster and possessing a better mental game, Intodia was the higher-ranking of the pair until this past year. I expect that this is an aberration and that state of affairs will eventually return.

251. Helmut Hoetker(101%) - 6.86, ??

I always get a kick out of how meteoric players ( 103% aging here) get to go slightly beyond their physical potential peak, aka 101%. Anyway, let's introduced Double-H here. Endurance and speed are his strengths, and he's about where he should be at for the rankings at his development level. Definitely going to join the challenger throng this year, and roughly a full year younger than the others so it makes sense that he'll be behind them in terms of the overall.

251(D). Satyagit Guha(99%) - 6.43, +0.67

More modest gains are expected here as well, esp. until doubles is maxed out. Guha is into the 'solid futures' range now, but I don't expect him to be challenger-quality for a while yet as a singles performer.

06-11-2019, 08:05 PM	#1068
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2067 Preview 1. John Hart(87%) - 8.69, -0.04 Hart is staying afloat based on outstanding technical abilities, and didn't lose much this year. 2. Nicolas Perez(95%) - 8.66, +0.14 Two more years at least to improve, and Perez has already reached a level of technical ability that I've rarely approached and never sustained. On paper, he and Hart are now a near-even match. Neither has a draw advantage over the other as both will always have a good path to the finals, where they'd play each other. I'm still predicting Perez to take over the top spot at some point this year. He's overperformed against Hart historically, and before long he should actually surpass him by rating. But obviously it's close enough that there's no way to know for sure which player prevails. 3. Srba Dogic(92%) - 8.35, -0.03 The meteoric Dogic is younger in years but older in mileage than Perez. Whatever he's going to do in terms of closing the gap will happen in the next year to 18 months. After that he'll be sliding back down the mountain. Interestingly, the numbers say he actually got slightly worse last year. He definitely doesn't have the baseline play to hang with a lot of top players, nevermind the two ahead of him, and his athleticism can only make up for so much, so there's really no chance of him threatening the power couple at all. Getting a secure station as third is the best he can hope for and I wouldn't bet the farm on that even happening. The fact of the matter is that he's fortunate to be where he is. 4. Ali Solberg(89%) - 8.62, +0.01 At this point Solberg has to be classified as somewhat of an underachiever. Solid elite-level technique, still quite fast, but he's never put it all together. He has his moments, but can't get there consistently. It's he, not Dogic, who really has the game to threaten. Based on what we've seen though, I'm pegging him to simply grab the #3 and just chill out well back of them. 5. Seamus Hughes(86%) - 8.47, +0.01 Impressive management work to have a player of Hughes' age basically holding steady after a significant decline last time. Cement feet appear to be his achilles heel, stopping him from competing on return against top servers. His own serve is as good as anyone's, better even that Hart or Perez, and as long as that's the case he figures to stick around and be relevant. Dogic should be worried about him as well. 6. Barry Molyneaux(85%) - 8.50, -0.03 The baseline play, always a weakness, continues to fade and is no longer even competitive. On the other hand, Molyneaux is a mental demon and still quite physically powerful. He should definitely stay in the mix. 7. Isa Solheim(89%) - 8.42, -0.08 Solheim stumbled a bit last year, unlike the other veterans, and dropped a half-step behind them. 8. Brian Meikeljohn(85%) - 8.66, -0.20 I only mention Meikeljohn because it's mandatory to include all Top-10 players. You can see here what a cliff you fall off when you leave a player be at his age ... and yet he's still basically equal to Hart/Perez theoretically even with that decline. Not that it'll matter. Wave to him as he disappears. 9. Emilien Mathou(91%) - 8.45, -0.04 Pretty much a copy of Dogic, only with better footspeed, Mathou has a quality serve, inadequate all-court play, and good athleticism. And the same basic meteoric aging path. Emilien halved his 18th ranking from a year ago, and more is expected of him this year. 10. Calisto Aviles(97%) - 8.44, ?? I don't know if I've ever introduced a player for the first time who was in the Top 10. So what's the deal with Aviles here? Well, his serve is more than good enough but baseline play isn't his forte. Most notably, he's a little on the weak side but is nearly as fast as Meikeljohn was in his heyday. A classic defensive clay-courter ... except that he's focused on the serve instead because reasons. Definitely has to be considered one of the world's best on the dirt, and his career will be defined by whether he ever becomes good enough to be a force on the hardcourts. I think he'll see significant improvement there eventually, maybe this year. After looking at his abilities and youth, I've come around on Calisto a bit. Still a fluke title last year I think and he's probably somewhat overranked, but not by much. Top 10 Analysis Interesting that #3 Dogic is clearly the worst player in the Top 10 by rating. That shows the competitiveness and the importance of getting fortunate enough to push beyond your seeding a couple times. Doesn't hurt him to have maxed-out proficiency on the most common surface either. '65 Avg - 8.573 '66 - 8.532 '67 - 8.526 (-0.06) The strength of the group continues to decline, even with Meikeljohn still hanging about. There are still more fading than there are improving. The changing of the guard has started to happen, but it's far from being fully achieved. 11. Chisulo Mpakati(96%) - 8.46, +0.12 Mpakati's technique is getting closer, allowing his impressive athleticism more room to flourish against elite competition. Another meteoric talent, he has probably two years to get this done. Lots of players hoping to make a run at the Top 10 this year but he's the best-positioned, after finally making a move up from 19th last year. 12. Lucas Perez(95%) - 8.32, ?? Another newcomer, it just seems Perez has been around longer because he made his mark early - SF in Monte Carlo, final in Rome, an early home-country 250 title, etc. But at this time last year he was still playing Challengers. Big leap, and we'll see if he's ready for more. Baseline play still needs some work, but not that much - a plus serve and good power are his best assets. As a clay specialist he'll be a big threat there, but I don't think he has the game to break through on other surfaces just yet. Hard to see him moving up much this year. 14. Il-Sung Jung(95%) - 8.70, +0.10 The door is still very much open for the doubles #38 to abandon that pursuit. He could be a legit rival to Perez, but there's no signs of that happening. On paper he comes in just ahead of Hart as the best player in the world, and he's not even Top 10 yet. Up from 26th a year ago, and I honestly don't know what happens for him this season because it depends on where his mind's at. If he makes up his mind to push upwards though, he's coming. He's that good. 15. Ollie Haas(94%) - 8.49, +0.08 Attempting to be a jack of all trades, Haas succeeded only at Wimbledon, and is right where he was a year ago. Only a crowded field has kept him from reaching higher. 16. Harald Wentz(96%) - 8.50, ?? Another newcomer who feels like he's been here forever because we've been watching him. Still inconsistent, Wentz relies on his serve - which is the equal of any active player's - too much. Next couple years for an athlete of his caliber should pace him to more consistency, as should getting above the Top 16 breakpoint. There's basically no difference in the players from 3-10 as there is 11-16. These last few should been seen basically as the 'extended first page'. I expect more struggles for the higher-ranking guys in big events as they have to deal with this kind of resistance on a consistent basis, and more chaotic results. 17. Sushant Chiba(82%) - 8.36, -0.12 Holding on to whatever I can basically, until it's time to go doubles. There really isn't much more to do than that. Technique is down to standard-elite levels of 5.0/4.0, while athleticism is a distant memory only. Mental excellence is the only major card he has to play, and in this environment that's not close to enough. 19. Tim de Jong(92%) - 8.48, +0.15 I've never seen a player drop six spots with this kind of improvement. That just about says it all - there are going to be some really good players who slip through the cracks and it looks like de Jong might be one of them. There's just room for only so many, and he's only got this one last year to improve. 21. Constantino Gonzoles(91%) - 8.52, +0.01 At his peak, better than multiple players in the Top 10, and unable to even get close. This era is just insane with the depth. 22. Clavet Moniotte(93%) - 8.25, -0.02 Strange time to be treading water at best. Moniotte desperately needs a boost to his baseline play, or this might well be known as the highest he ever pushes. Was 21st last year. 23. Santino Belmon(94%) - 8.49, +0.08 Slid up a few spots from 27th, which under the circumstances is a laudable achievement. Belmon is just looking for an opportunity like so many others, and wondering if he'll ever get one. Should still have two more years to create an opening. 24. Tobias Velilla(97%) - 8.30, ?? Say hello to our latest young flash-in-the-pan. Whatever Tobias is going to do, he needs to do it quickly. He's got one of the best serves in the world, but is unremarkable otherwhise. I wish him luck - at least for the time being, he'll need it. 25. Acke Kjaerstad(96%) - 8.38, +0.07 Not quite as much improvement as one might have hoped for, and Kjaerstad stays right where he was last year. 30. Algot Hakanson(94%) - 8.21, +0.07 Another marginal Swede who didn't move an inch in the rankings. Under-developed baseline play is the culprit in both cases. 31. Patrick Sanchez(91%) - 8.30, ?? Probably the most athletically gifted player around right now, above even Mpakati and Wentz, Sanchez here hasn't been handled the best over the course of his career. A doubles diversion didn't help, and and he's not as technically developed as you'd expect a player to be at 26. So he's relegated basically to being a pain in the butt for a couple years for anyone trying to get out of challengers. 32. Santino de Jesus(98%) - 8.08, ?? The final spot goes to this German with a decidedly not-German name. He's gone all-in on the hard-court/grass combo, not a typical path but one with a certain logic to it, foregoing any chance at decent clay results. Serve is already there, quality athleticism, good mentality, ground strokes need work per usual. Even with a fast-ticking career clock he still has time, but he's really breathing air above his pay grade right now. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip back down to challengers. 34. Amrik Kasaravalli(95%) - 8.42, +0.24 Two years from his peak, and back into Challengers. To say he's running out of time is an understatement, and after last year finished at 37th ... this is all too familiar. On the other hand, he is still improving and really should be good enough to beat a lot of the players ahead of him - in fact he's now on paper Sri Lanka's best player. But how much of that will actually show up on the court with the brick wall arrayed above him? Need a few more of those close matches to go his way this year. 38. Helmut Edlund(98%) - 7.77, ?? Solid all-around with doubles diversion in evidence and the lacking technique you'd expect from that, Edlund is going with the exceeding rare Clay/Indoors combo. More importantly, he's pretty much as high as I think he gets until the technical side catches up with his ranking. 41. Joao Narciso(98%) - 7.87, +0.22 Everything I just said about Edlund is basically true here as well. Good boost for him from 70th in the rankings last season, but while I'd love to say he's going to jump up and grab a Top 32 spot soon I just don't think he's quite good enough to do it yet. Depends on how many vets slip down into this tier I suppose, but it might be another year for the Brazilian. 43. Willy Weigl(99%) - 7.74, ?? Clay/Indoors again here for Weigl. Serve is getting close, he's strong with good mentality, but the baseline game is frankly anemic for a player of this level. In terms of the overall, though Narciso's distribution is more classical, Edlund/Narciso/Weigl are three peas in a pod. Gatekeepers at the elite challenger level basically, trying to forge a path above the break line but unlikely to do so just yet. 93. Girish Shivakumar(99%) - 7.41, ?? I wasn't looking at these guys last year so there's nothing to compare to. Shivakumar's game is all about power, and he's all-on on hardcourts while moving steadily up into the Top 100. 97. Shakti Vemireddy(99%) - 7.57, ?? The more athletic Vemireddy isn't quite there with Shivakumar technically, but still looks the superior player to me. He's decided to go clay, which makes some sense given his natural abilities. 124. Tommy Fitzpatrick(99%) - 7.61, +0.59 A nice gain for a player who was maxed-out physically at the start of the year. TFitz - I'm going with it barring another nickname - should start being a major threat to any challenger-level performer soon. How about Fitz and Chits for the rivalry. No?? 125. Mark Smith(100%) - 7.47, +0.71 Right there with the others, even though he's a bit younger. 130. Nasir Chittoor(99%) - 7.47, +0.84 The last big improvement year for Chittoor - things will slow down somewhat now as he only benefited from half a year of aging gains and has another year-plus before that starts reversing. This year his goal is to push up to about 8.0 and be ready by the end of it to start making his run at getting out of Challengers. The numbers say he's just surpassed Shivakumar, but still trails Fitzpatrick and Vemireddy overall. I can't argue with that. 192. Rakesh Kayeeda(99%) - 7.22, +0.80 Nothing to complain about here as Kayeeda makes his way into the Challenger tier. 208. Ritwik Intodia(99%) - 7.42, +0.74 Faster and possessing a better mental game, Intodia was the higher-ranking of the pair until this past year. I expect that this is an aberration and that state of affairs will eventually return. 251. Helmut Hoetker(101%) - 6.86, ?? I always get a kick out of how meteoric players ( 103% aging here) get to go slightly beyond their physical potential peak, aka 101%. Anyway, let's introduced Double-H here. Endurance and speed are his strengths, and he's about where he should be at for the rankings at his development level. Definitely going to join the challenger throng this year, and roughly a full year younger than the others so it makes sense that he'll be behind them in terms of the overall. 251(D). Satyagit Guha(99%) - 6.43, +0.67 More modest gains are expected here as well, esp. until doubles is maxed out. Guha is into the 'solid futures' range now, but I don't expect him to be challenger-quality for a while yet as a singles performer.