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I'm 6-1 since making this change on offense with two wins over 300 rated teams. My 1 loss was 14-8 and I turned it over twice in the second half with a 10% chance or less each time.
I definitely have a sense that one stop of any sort (including stopping a conversion) ends the game most of the time. If I get the ball to start the first half I can, most of the time, score a TD in the final 2 minutes of the 2nd quarter by kneeling to third down a few times. Same of course if I start the second half with the ball in a situation where one score will win it for me, or even better, where I'm already ahead. It was only against a team rated 215 or so but I have a win 8-0 where I forced a turnover in the first quarter, scored a TD in the final minute of the first half, and just ran out the clock without scoring in a single possession in the second.
Tomorrow once the top teams settle in will be a nice test, but this feels really good.
Some of the 300 rated teams to turn some of those plays into only 70% success rates, but the various low yardage IR plays have different matchups and so far I've always been able to rely on at least one that's super favorable to get going.
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