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Brian Swartz · 11-16-2016, 05:55 PM

2049 Season Preview

1. Prakash Mooljee(95%, 8.73, +0.15)

Still getting significantly better every year, Mooljee is about as good as Girsh and Iglar were two years ago, when the former was in his prime. I think Prakash will exceed his peak, and he's got about two more years of modest improvement before he gets to his. It's hard to imagine anyone coming close to him in that timeframe. He's the best there is, and his biggest enemy is himself -- avoiding lapses and letdowns.

2. Girish Girsh(85%, 8.62, --)

This is a shocking number when you consider the fact that Girsh lost more than twice as many matches this year(13) as compared to the one before(6). He wasn't on nearly the same hot streak, and could bounce back somewhat this season. From a technical point of view, he's actually a little better on service and equal otherwhise to Mooljee, along with having somewhat stronger mentality. Athletically though he's barely above-average these days.

3. Antonin Iglar(77%, 8.42, -0.10)

Not as much as he declined last year, but Iglar has the same problem of a maxed-out serve that Mehul is dealing with, to go along with the fact that he's merely a good athlete now at 32. I think he's still a Top 4 player, but one wonders how much longer he wants to soldier on as his once-legendary game continues to erode.

4. Tomas Niklas(94%, 8.50, ??)

How surprising was Niklas' rise this year? Well, I didn't even calculate him as one of the key players twelve months ago. He's made me, and a lot of other players, look pretty foolish. An excellent athlete particularly in terms of court coverage, he's still got good-but-not great technique, but there are no big weaknesses. He checks every important box. A few months older than Mooljee, he'll never catch the world no. 1, but he could step up to #2 this year if Girsh doesn't rediscover his mojo.

5. Gustavo Caratti(86%, 8.30, -0.09)

Those who saw most of the clay-court season expect for RG, and the WTC Finals, could already guess that we'd see the first significant decline for the Argentine standard-bearer. There's nobody really waiting to take his spot as the king on that surface either; Mooljee will probably own it for a while.

6. Anil Mehul(78%, 8.31, -0.18)

I expect Mehul's shift to doubles to begin sometime around the end of this year; maybe a little earlier, maybe a little later.

7. Shreya Ujjaval(92%, 8.36, -0.01)

This is rather stunning given the leap he made at the end of the year. Ujjaval should still have been improving. Interesting that I wrote last year that '7th is probably a reasonable year-end target for him'. Rarely am I that on the nose

. This year, probably it's 5th, as Caratti and Mehul slide by. More than that would surprise me.

8. Mugur Kinczllers(82%, 7.97, -0.18)

9. Theodore Bourdet(88%, 8.21, +0.06)

Unusual for a player of Bourdet's age to improve, but not unheard of. He's still got one of the world's best serves, but not enough of a baseline game to back it up.

10. Zourab Andronikov(90%, 8.29, +0.01)

Andronikov has long had a lot of power, but his service technique is on par with Bourdet's now; nobody can say theirs is better. That's a potent combination, as the field at Paris discovered. His deficiencies in terms of rally skill will keep him from rising to become a real contender though.

Interesting factoid: the average rating of the Top 10 to start this year is 8.37, even when you factor in the sinking ship that is Kinczllers. Last year it was 8.34. I'd expect it to tick upwards next year as well, as more of the 'dead weight' is removed. By that time, the youth movement, now well underway, should be nearly complete. It's time now to take a closer look at those pressing their way upwards ...

11. Khasan Zakirov(94%, 8.39, ??) -- The first time Mooljee played Uzbekistan's pride and joy, I was annoyed and disappointed at how competitive he was. Even a year ago, he was not noteworthy enough to include in this summary. He won't be ignored any longer. Zakirov is pretty weak from the back of the court, but he has a quality serve and is an excellent athlete. At this point, I expect to see him at the Tour Finals next year.

12. Juan de los Santos(96%, 8.24, ??) -- Another player I wasn't tracking a year ago, de los Santos is equal to Zakirov technically, but doesn't have as much power. He's the only clay specialist up and coming right now, but isn't extreme in that focus. He could still be a major factor on the dirt though, particularly if he keeps improving.

13. Agustin Herrera(87%, 8.11, -0.09) -- Which one of these things is not like the others .... Herrera is out of place here as a veteran, but is still just good enough to be a clay-court nuisance. The rest of the year, not so much. His power is increasingly not enough to overcome his lack of mobility.

14. Luc Janin(98%, 8.42, +0.16) -- Barely past his physical peak now, Janin is also a rare player who is striking approximately the right balance between serve and skill in his technical development. Both still have some ways to go, but he's clearly already better than much of the Top 10 and is another player I expect to see at the WTF next year. His athleticism is still elite even if beginning to fade, but aside from a few strange scheduling decisions every now and then, management is doing a fine job with him. He's still on course to potentially be the guy that eventually takes Mooljee's throne, and as such I'm keeping a sharp eye on this Canadian prodigy who is just about to turn 22.

15. Tiosav Srbulovic(96%, 8.24, +0.08) -- Srbulovic has improved more gradually than he should have, and ought to be better technically than he is by now. As a result, he's up only three spots from this time last season. He still should make the Top 10 eventually, but the bloom is starting to come off the rose, so to speak.

16. Blagota Cojanovic(95%, 8.26, ??) -- Cojanovic doesn't have the power of those ahead of him, but he makes up for that partially with a very strong mental game.

20. Sava Cirakovic(93%, 8.15, +0.15) -- Despite steady improvements, Cirakovic actually dropped a spot in the rankings this year, and is no further along in that regard than he was two years ago. He's only got average mobility, but an excellent serve should make up for that. He just never seems to be able to make a big run in any significant tournament, or put it all together consistently. I'm not sure at this point that he ever will, as a number of younger, better players have now surpassed him.

24. Jake Jolland(98%, 8.07, ??) -- Jolland is interesting because he's merely above-average as an athlete, whereas the young players in his generation have made their presence felt on the basis of being superior in that aspect. For Jake, it's been technique, particularly on the serve though he's reasonably well-trained from the back of the court for a 22-year-old as well.

29. Gabriele Guareschi(100%, 7.76, ??) -- Guareschi will probably be the next player to dominate on clay, though that's likely three years away or maybe even longer. Aside from his early achievements -- he's basically a year younger than Janin, and only four spots lower than Luc was a year ago -- what stands out about Guareschi is his remarkable talent for the sport. He picks up new tactics and concepts with remarkable ease, facilitating his rise.

42. Gillo Fangio(100%, 8.22, ??) -- Fangio is the yin to Guareschi's yang, so to speak, a hardcourt player, also from Italy, and just a week older. The two 21-year-olds could form a scary combination, including, not long from now, in the WTC. Of the two, Fangio looks set to be the scariest. He's just behind where Janin was last year. He's got a lot of power, but more notably is one of the mentally strongest players I've ever come across. Technique is of course still a work in progress, but I expect to see him in the Top 20 by year's end. In a few years, Fangio and Janin is likely to be a clash of the titans ... and mostly I'm just glad I don't have anyone directly in their path, age-wise. This is still 2+ years ahead of Dudwadkar. I'm not brown-nosing to Nevstar here either -- Fangio is a serious stud. I've got him as roughly 15th-best in world right this very minute.

There are three 20-year-olds right now between here and #55. I didn't rate them yet, though they'll probably earn that priviledge next year. Just mentioning it here to point out that there are more potentially strong players coming.

67. Shyam Senepathy(95%, 7.36, +0.47) -- A major boost, but that was after an inexplicable decline last year. Frankly I think his manager must have been saving up points to invest for whatever misguided reason. I kind of wonder when he did it, because it sure didn't help him gain any ground. Still a couple more years at least of progression to go. I'm still sticking with my prediction that elite challenger is his peak; Top 50, but not Top 32.

NR. Ritwik Dudwadkar(91%, 6.22, +1.15) -- I think 6.0 is basically 'ready for futures' territory, 7.0 for challengers. Roughly, based on what I remember from previous players and adjustments made to the calculation a while back. With players like Janin and Fangio a few years ahead, Dudwadkar definitely has his work cut out for him as he begins the task of pressing forward into the professional ranks. Actually improved more this year than last year, which is quite strange. Won't be long now until he reaches physical maturity, and things start to slow down for the first time.

11-16-2016, 05:55 PM	#561
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2049 Season Preview 1. Prakash Mooljee(95%, 8.73, +0.15) Still getting significantly better every year, Mooljee is about as good as Girsh and Iglar were two years ago, when the former was in his prime. I think Prakash will exceed his peak, and he's got about two more years of modest improvement before he gets to his. It's hard to imagine anyone coming close to him in that timeframe. He's the best there is, and his biggest enemy is himself -- avoiding lapses and letdowns. 2. Girish Girsh(85%, 8.62, --) This is a shocking number when you consider the fact that Girsh lost more than twice as many matches this year(13) as compared to the one before(6). He wasn't on nearly the same hot streak, and could bounce back somewhat this season. From a technical point of view, he's actually a little better on service and equal otherwhise to Mooljee, along with having somewhat stronger mentality. Athletically though he's barely above-average these days. 3. Antonin Iglar(77%, 8.42, -0.10) Not as much as he declined last year, but Iglar has the same problem of a maxed-out serve that Mehul is dealing with, to go along with the fact that he's merely a good athlete now at 32. I think he's still a Top 4 player, but one wonders how much longer he wants to soldier on as his once-legendary game continues to erode. 4. Tomas Niklas(94%, 8.50, ??) How surprising was Niklas' rise this year? Well, I didn't even calculate him as one of the key players twelve months ago. He's made me, and a lot of other players, look pretty foolish. An excellent athlete particularly in terms of court coverage, he's still got good-but-not great technique, but there are no big weaknesses. He checks every important box. A few months older than Mooljee, he'll never catch the world no. 1, but he could step up to #2 this year if Girsh doesn't rediscover his mojo. 5. Gustavo Caratti(86%, 8.30, -0.09) Those who saw most of the clay-court season expect for RG, and the WTC Finals, could already guess that we'd see the first significant decline for the Argentine standard-bearer. There's nobody really waiting to take his spot as the king on that surface either; Mooljee will probably own it for a while. 6. Anil Mehul(78%, 8.31, -0.18) I expect Mehul's shift to doubles to begin sometime around the end of this year; maybe a little earlier, maybe a little later. 7. Shreya Ujjaval(92%, 8.36, -0.01) This is rather stunning given the leap he made at the end of the year. Ujjaval should still have been improving. Interesting that I wrote last year that '7th is probably a reasonable year-end target for him'. Rarely am I that on the nose . This year, probably it's 5th, as Caratti and Mehul slide by. More than that would surprise me. 8. Mugur Kinczllers(82%, 7.97, -0.18) 9. Theodore Bourdet(88%, 8.21, +0.06) Unusual for a player of Bourdet's age to improve, but not unheard of. He's still got one of the world's best serves, but not enough of a baseline game to back it up. 10. Zourab Andronikov(90%, 8.29, +0.01) Andronikov has long had a lot of power, but his service technique is on par with Bourdet's now; nobody can say theirs is better. That's a potent combination, as the field at Paris discovered. His deficiencies in terms of rally skill will keep him from rising to become a real contender though. Interesting factoid: the average rating of the Top 10 to start this year is 8.37, even when you factor in the sinking ship that is Kinczllers. Last year it was 8.34. I'd expect it to tick upwards next year as well, as more of the 'dead weight' is removed. By that time, the youth movement, now well underway, should be nearly complete. It's time now to take a closer look at those pressing their way upwards ... 11. Khasan Zakirov(94%, 8.39, ??) -- The first time Mooljee played Uzbekistan's pride and joy, I was annoyed and disappointed at how competitive he was. Even a year ago, he was not noteworthy enough to include in this summary. He won't be ignored any longer. Zakirov is pretty weak from the back of the court, but he has a quality serve and is an excellent athlete. At this point, I expect to see him at the Tour Finals next year. 12. Juan de los Santos(96%, 8.24, ??) -- Another player I wasn't tracking a year ago, de los Santos is equal to Zakirov technically, but doesn't have as much power. He's the only clay specialist up and coming right now, but isn't extreme in that focus. He could still be a major factor on the dirt though, particularly if he keeps improving. 13. Agustin Herrera(87%, 8.11, -0.09) -- Which one of these things is not like the others .... Herrera is out of place here as a veteran, but is still just good enough to be a clay-court nuisance. The rest of the year, not so much. His power is increasingly not enough to overcome his lack of mobility. 14. Luc Janin(98%, 8.42, +0.16) -- Barely past his physical peak now, Janin is also a rare player who is striking approximately the right balance between serve and skill in his technical development. Both still have some ways to go, but he's clearly already better than much of the Top 10 and is another player I expect to see at the WTF next year. His athleticism is still elite even if beginning to fade, but aside from a few strange scheduling decisions every now and then, management is doing a fine job with him. He's still on course to potentially be the guy that eventually takes Mooljee's throne, and as such I'm keeping a sharp eye on this Canadian prodigy who is just about to turn 22. 15. Tiosav Srbulovic(96%, 8.24, +0.08) -- Srbulovic has improved more gradually than he should have, and ought to be better technically than he is by now. As a result, he's up only three spots from this time last season. He still should make the Top 10 eventually, but the bloom is starting to come off the rose, so to speak. 16. Blagota Cojanovic(95%, 8.26, ??) -- Cojanovic doesn't have the power of those ahead of him, but he makes up for that partially with a very strong mental game. 20. Sava Cirakovic(93%, 8.15, +0.15) -- Despite steady improvements, Cirakovic actually dropped a spot in the rankings this year, and is no further along in that regard than he was two years ago. He's only got average mobility, but an excellent serve should make up for that. He just never seems to be able to make a big run in any significant tournament, or put it all together consistently. I'm not sure at this point that he ever will, as a number of younger, better players have now surpassed him. 24. Jake Jolland(98%, 8.07, ??) -- Jolland is interesting because he's merely above-average as an athlete, whereas the young players in his generation have made their presence felt on the basis of being superior in that aspect. For Jake, it's been technique, particularly on the serve though he's reasonably well-trained from the back of the court for a 22-year-old as well. 29. Gabriele Guareschi(100%, 7.76, ??) -- Guareschi will probably be the next player to dominate on clay, though that's likely three years away or maybe even longer. Aside from his early achievements -- he's basically a year younger than Janin, and only four spots lower than Luc was a year ago -- what stands out about Guareschi is his remarkable talent for the sport. He picks up new tactics and concepts with remarkable ease, facilitating his rise. 42. Gillo Fangio(100%, 8.22, ??) -- Fangio is the yin to Guareschi's yang, so to speak, a hardcourt player, also from Italy, and just a week older. The two 21-year-olds could form a scary combination, including, not long from now, in the WTC. Of the two, Fangio looks set to be the scariest. He's just behind where Janin was last year. He's got a lot of power, but more notably is one of the mentally strongest players I've ever come across. Technique is of course still a work in progress, but I expect to see him in the Top 20 by year's end. In a few years, Fangio and Janin is likely to be a clash of the titans ... and mostly I'm just glad I don't have anyone directly in their path, age-wise. This is still 2+ years ahead of Dudwadkar. I'm not brown-nosing to Nevstar here either -- Fangio is a serious stud. I've got him as roughly 15th-best in world right this very minute. There are three 20-year-olds right now between here and #55. I didn't rate them yet, though they'll probably earn that priviledge next year. Just mentioning it here to point out that there are more potentially strong players coming. 67. Shyam Senepathy(95%, 7.36, +0.47) -- A major boost, but that was after an inexplicable decline last year. Frankly I think his manager must have been saving up points to invest for whatever misguided reason. I kind of wonder when he did it, because it sure didn't help him gain any ground. Still a couple more years at least of progression to go. I'm still sticking with my prediction that elite challenger is his peak; Top 50, but not Top 32. NR. Ritwik Dudwadkar(91%, 6.22, +1.15) -- I think 6.0 is basically 'ready for futures' territory, 7.0 for challengers. Roughly, based on what I remember from previous players and adjustments made to the calculation a while back. With players like Janin and Fangio a few years ahead, Dudwadkar definitely has his work cut out for him as he begins the task of pressing forward into the professional ranks. Actually improved more this year than last year, which is quite strange. Won't be long now until he reaches physical maturity, and things start to slow down for the first time.