View Single Post
Old 12-07-2017, 08:09 PM   #724
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
2056 Season Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(90%, 9.11, -0.06)

Although the situation could change, it appears that the long, slow fall from his peak has begun. Losing half a step means very little in the grand scheme of things -- he'd need to lose a couple more full ones before it was even largely noticeable. But those who are still improving may taken note; time is on their side.

2. Martin Zarco(90%, 8.73, -0.04)

Clay expertise, elite mental game, good athleticism, a strong serve. Zarco never quite got there as a baseliner, but the other plusses combined to make him more versatile than expected. Starting to slip now a bit as well, but still quite good. He's got a reasonable chance to hold onto this spot, but only if he continues to perform well.

3. Guus Dircx(91%, 8.80, +0.01)

Dircx appears to have undearchieved just a bit, being pretty inconsistent the last couple of years. This is his best chance though. He's got the game to be the guy -- the guy who takes the #2 spot again and holds it for a bit.

4. Ritwik Dudwadkar(93%, 8.83, +0.13)

Dudwadkar continues to get better and has another year of doing so. Look at the men ranked 2nd-4th and consider this: when Mooljee, who held the #1 spot for almost three years, was in his prime 8.79 was as good as he ever got. These players are Prakash's equal at a minimum, and all it gets them is a fight with each other for the spot behind Mateo the legend. This is a very high-quality Top 4, and it's one that I don't expect to be broken up for the next year, maybe two or so. As for Ritwik, he is technically considered now the #2 player in the world and the best Sri Lankan tennis player who has ever lived. Not in terms of accomplishments where he won't be close, but in terms of level of play. It's so close though, both on paper and in the rankings. Avoiding early upset losses to others will be key, and the matchups between this trio in the big events will be very interesting to watch. Who will seize the moment in 2056?

5. Gillo Fangio(87%, 8.72, -0.09)

Fangio is better than he showed last year, and deserves to be mentioned on the very edge of the group above. It would take a serious renaissance for him to get back in, but it's not out of the question.

6. Hsuang-tsung Teng(92%, 8.55, -0.01)

Not a good year at all in relative terms for Teng(he is up a spot from 7th a year ago), who should still be getting a little better here. It's sort of a reflection of his overall career; he's got the monstrous mental toughness that characterizes most of this generation of players, but the baseline game has never really gotten close to the elite level(4.7). That's what's holdling him back, and it's a gift if he does any more than stay right where he is.

7. Prakash Mooljee(80%, 8.34, -0.19)

That's a big number there, but only the truly great have enough athleticism to still compete past the age of 30. Mooljee never had that level of gifts, and while the technical skills are still quite respectable they are increasingly not enough to forestall the advance of time. A more and more losing battle all the time for him is the natural expectation -- and perhaps still a moment or two of brilliance.

8. Ruben Piazzola(93%, 8.43, +0.13)

Piazzola finally burst up from 15th last year, making his move on the strength of a finalist showing at the Japan Open(500). He was solid elsewhere but that sort of separated him from some of the others. I figure him to move up a spot past Mooljee, but that's about all this year. He's managed by the same person as Zarco, and the distribution of his training reflects that; good on clay, emphasis on serve. Although he's not quite at the same level as the Spaniard, we'll see if he can achieve similar versatility in results over the next couple of seasons.

9. Valentin Rosenberg(92%, 8.25, +0.03)

Rosenberg is sort of a case study in how far you can go with an extreme development plan. Combination one of the best serves in the world and hardcourt speciality means he's going to be a threat half of the year, esp. if he's playing well; it's tough to break him. On the other hand, he should have improved more this year and his baseline game is a joke compared to other Top-10 guys. Still another year for him to make some improvements.

10. Sigmund Kronecker(87%, 8.39, -0.08)

Main question here is how long he's still relevant on clay. Probably still is for a bit more, is my guess, but also probably not enough to keep on the first page.

13. Benno Duhr(92%, 8.05, +0.08)

A decent gain here, but not enough to explain his rise of nearly 20 spots from 31st, that's for sure. He definitely figures to be overranked; a good serve and prodigious talent, but doesn't have the whole package. Another clay specialist.

14. Matthew Panter(93%, 8.30, +0.01)

Solid in every way but unspectacular, Panter hasn't done much to improve his game the last couple of seasons and as a result the future of US tennis has taken a bit of a hit. He's been almost good enough to break into the Top 10 but not quite a while now, and I don't see that changing soon. Down a couple spots from 12th.

15. Gregory Mackenzie(95%, 8.38, +0.11)

Mackenzie is another matter. He figures to become the top American soon(Browne 11th, Panter 14th, Jolland 16th ... but no Top 10 US player for the first time possibly ever). Still a couple of years to get better but he could break in this year. He's drank too deeply from the glass of Big Serving(tm), and also has low endurance. Looks to be managed well though, and that really makes a difference. Up 3 from 18th.

17. Dick Blake(95%, 8.36, +0.20)

Right there with him is this guy, who nobody wants to play at any of the US masters or the USO itself these days. He's younger but a meteoric type; won't be around long but his moment is about to arrive and judging by his growth last year(up modestly from 26th) he realizes that. Five Americans in the 11-17 spots in the rankings.

18. Alexey Alenichev(94%, 7.86, +0.04)

Not sure what he's doing here(30th a year ago), but this isn't the prodigy you're looking for. He's done well to get this far but I don't see him going above about 15th pretty much ever; too much time in doubles, limited athleticism, etc.

19. Alexey Nikitin(96%, 8.47, +0.07)

Had a strong year last season on the court but not so much off it, the reverse of the previous year. Hard to criticize going from 51st to the Top 20, but he shouldn't have been down that far to begin with. In any case, he's got at least two maybe three years of growth left, and despite his lagging serve(I still find that amusing given how unusual it is, at 3.5) he's the best candidate to make a run into the Top 10. Objectively he's now 7th in the world. I figure a low-teen ranking this year, there's probably too much traffic ahead of him for him to make it this year.

23. Stuart Pargeter(97%, 8.15, ??)

Pargeter, a late-bloomer, might well be the best of the incoming Americans when all is said and done. Quite talented, reasonable dedication to the craft, and fairly strong. Technical abilities aren't there yet but he has 3 years yet minimum to get there. It shouldn't take that long. A modest move upward, to the 15th-20th range, is expected.

24. Vinnie Cone(92%, 8.17, +0.08)

Cone is another US weed but in the 'not quite good enough' category. Up a single spot from 25th a year ago, his current career-high is 19th and I don't see a reason to expect anything much better than that.

32. Damian Cortecedo(94%, 7.78, ??)

After a bunch of vets and former stars, Cortecedo is a Chilean popping his head in. The common disease of too much doubles and not enough skill here, and he's not good enough to be worth a longer look.

A number of other young players lurk in the upper Challenger ranks -- they need to take another step forward though if they are to earn a profile.

100. Stanley Edleman(101%, 7.40, +0.40)

First teenager in four years to make the Top 100; he's actually just tied for the spot, but whatever -- it's still an achievement worthy of notice. Edleman's good enough to make further inroads but not good enough to escape the Challenger levels; I figure he'll progress further towards but not into the Top 50, depending on how fast he improves. 817th a year ago so the charge is definitely still on for him. Stanley played in nine smaller challengers this year, with a title, two finals, and a smattering of other results.

198. Anil Mehul(62%, 6.94, -0.18)

The steady erosion of skills continues, and trainer projection is up to 5.29(+0.04). Five years to go for Mehul.

230. Sushant Chiba(99%, 7.16, +0.94)

Most of the gap to Edleman has been closed, but Chiba reached physical maturity a couple months ago and his improvement will definitely slow. He's good enough to put his .02 in the Challengers though, and will soon do so. Last year he was 2049th, so obviously it will be a smaller rise this season. I don't expect any more than about Top 100. This will be about establishing himself in the next tier. I may start to get a better handle on how big a handicap his cement feet are; so far it hasn't seemed to really hurt him.
Brian Swartz is offline   Reply With Quote