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For me, it's really based on the upcoming opponent...meaning that they don't last long enough to save.
I will say a few of my keys here...
1- look at the scouting report of the opponent...the first part I notice...that determines much of the defensive set I go with that game...is the scramble frequency of the opposing QB. If he is an avid scrambler, then at least 9 of my defensive plays will be plays with a spy.
2- I look at the WRs...if they have a tendency to target more than 1 on deep throws, I will only use 1 or 2 of the "cover-1/press-1" defenses, for use down close to my own GL on defense where I don't have to think of deep passes.
3-I will watch a bit of their recent game, at least...with an eye to how well they pick up blitzers. If blitzing them has success, then I will use blitz on about half my defense plays..if it usually doesn't work, then I won't abandon it, but will only incorporate maybe 2 plays..both with multiple blitzers.
4-Cover-3 and cover-4 both have some issues with trips-sets...if they use a lot of tris, I will either not use cover-3/4 or only use 1, as my "late game prevent D"
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