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Old 10-21-2022, 12:40 PM   #46
Brian Swartz
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Join Date: May 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64
there will always be a need to help "incubate" industries/technologies/raw materials etc. that we need. Arguably, the EV market is nearing maturity but user adoption is not there yet. To increase user adoption, costs need to be lowered, better battery range, more infrastructure/recharging station etc.

Agree with all of that. What I don't agree with is that doing any of that requires measures that I think are fairly labeled as anti-trade, such as what you initially referenced; requiring domestically produced components and so on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64
The US does need to (1) identify key gaps and (2) close those gaps with alternatives or alternate sources.

Agree with this except that it requires as well the recognition that many gaps can't be closed, which also means that closing those gaps is only a partial and limited solution. You're right that I'm a proponent of globalism, but in the same sense as I'm a proponent of breathing air and eating food. It has the same level of being essential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64
Your reference to aluminum/bauxite. If we can't get it from China, we'll get it from Australia or Guinea. This is an example and your point is obviously broader.

Your note about the broader complex is appreciated. Regarding aluminum specifically though, no we won't. China produces over half the world's supply. If they cut it off, or even reduced it by half, there would be worldwide shortages for years. Australia has more reserves but it's not a focus for them. #2 and #3 producers are India and Russia, not exactly friends of ours.

Edit: Another way of looking at this is that China has a *far* stronger grip on aluminum (56% of the world's production) than Saudi Arabia does on crude oil (less than 15% of the world's production).

The main point is we are vulnerable to whatever pressure they want to put on our economy - as they are vulnerable to us and others as well. That isn't just true today, it will be true 5 years from now, 10 years from now, and 20 years from now, and it will be true regardless of what actions we take to shore up those vulnerable sectors of the economy that we can improve/protect.

Last edited by Brian Swartz : 10-22-2022 at 01:55 AM.
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