Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy
The fact that it’s even a discussion on Fields that the Bears could consider moving on shows how absurd the NFL QB dialogue is IMO. That you could pick a guy 11th overall, and seriously talk about cutting bait with him after 25 starts… it’s a mad game. Especially when he led the league in rushing YPA and showed a small growth in passing and you’ve just seen Jalen Hurts follow the exact same template.
With that being said, I’ll go to the mattresses to say that Zach Wilson is a bust and one of the worst QBs of the last 20 years. So maybe we all just see what we want to see. Sue me.
|
An interesting philosophy. Obviously, you see the issue - we do evaluate quarterbacks at 25 starts (Wilson is at 22 starts and was picked 2nd overall). We have to. If you're not a top pick, you'll never even get near 25 starts unless you show you're worth it.
Fields made progress last season. So did Wilson. The problem with both is where they started from. Just as you are, I'm more likely to conclude that Wilson is a bust than Fields. In fact, I don't even disagree that Wilson is one of the very worst to get to 22 starts in the last 20 years.
Bad things happen when either throws the ball, but Fields is also a remarkable broken-field runner - his vision when doing this reminds me of Denard Robinson at Michigan before the injuries accumulated and he had to switch to running back when he went to the NFL. Can Fields avoid the hits accumulating that will make him even less accurate when he throws the ball?
There are five more quarterbacks in the 2021 class. Lance looks great when he's out there, but Desmond Ridder already has more NFL experience than he does. You have to hope that his injuries haven't already begun to accumulate as his touch rate was right up there at Fields' level.
Lawrence was terrible as a rookie, but obviously much improved last year and there's the narrative of Urban Meyer not running his staff professionally. Will he continue to improve, because as much as the 2022 version was light years ahead of 2021, it still was only average for an NFL quarterback? Signs point to yes there, so we look at Jacksonville as one of the teams that doesn't have questions right now.
Mac Jones had by far the best numbers as a rookie - it wasn't even close, but he regressed last year and there's also the immaturity issue. Bailey Zappe outplayed him in a brief appearance, but I don't think has the skills to do that on a starting basis in the NFL.
Then you have the second-rounder, Kyle Trask, who hasn't played because he was drafted to learn from Tom Brady. No idea there, but we haven't heard good buzz from Tampa Bay and I would expect them to go free agent as Trask is the only quarterback on their roster right now.
Finally, Davis Mills. A third rounder. One who seems perfectly fine as a backup, but isn't that close as a starter.
Back to the philosophy. Maybe it's the sports-radio/now Twitter and whatever passes for public commentary out there these days. Maybe it's how political debates work these days, but we tend to rate opinions by how confidently they're stated. How little room there is for nuance.
There's a value to that. Down the road, we can evaluate the confident ones because they make Decisions. You don't want a president or a head evaluator who is constantly wishy-washy. And you don't want someone who refuses to take any position much of the time.
Then you can, in theory, evaluate the evaluators. In politics and I suspect in the world of Twitter punditry, you shape that evaluation as well. "I was right about Justin Fields," you state just as confidently...
I've been caught up in it sometimes. I think I have a sense of when I've been right and when I've been wrong. I hope that isn't shaped too much by selective memory or wishful thinking.
But I think people would be happier if they didn't get so caught up because being an evaluator is a full-time responsibility. Obviously, I've written enough about Fields that if he succeeds, some of you might remember, "oh, you were very wrong about him..." and I'll own that. Truth is I don't know. I watch a lot of football, but I'm not disciplined about it. I'm not a scout, with an organized list of observations I need to make and the knowledge of how to look at a lot of tape and methodically go through that list, pick out the plays that demonstrate what constitutes a fair evaluation.
The NFL is not about originality in the end. Someone who can do some things very, very well (with Fields, it's these remarkably frequent chunk-play runs) breaks games until someone comes up with a defense to stop it. Then everyone will see that on film and copy that. Great players just go and do something else. Great pocket passers can "make all the throws." That's not just a physical thing with arm strength and accuracy, that's being able to read a defense and know which receiver will be open. Blitz the hell out of them and they read it and make that good decision even more quickly. Mediocre players keep doing what they do best and bad things happen when they try to adjust.
I think defenses will find a way to force Fields to pass and Chicago will need to draft yet another one (Trubisky obviously didn't get it done, either - he and Wentz seem like the same guy). And, like many, I think Lawrence will continue to improve and speed up his reads and become one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.