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Old 05-06-2015, 02:22 PM   #323
timmae
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Chicago
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoveler View Post
So.. After last night it is likely we are at 4/3. I'm guessing brit was not the sorcerer or a wolf, based on his behavior before the lynch.

The sorcerer counts as a villager for parity, so I guess we could say we are at 5/2 as long as the sorcerer doesn't know the identity of the wolves. In that case the sorcerer will not know who to vote with. So, if this is correct we are not at a must lynch situation today. If the sorcerer has figured out who the wolves are, then we are at a must lynch or we will lose to evil voting power tomorrow if we mislynch today.

After rereading the thread I am not seeing anything that stands out as a tell about who is the sorcerer or wolves, so I think it may be safe to assume that they do not know each others identity.

Ok, so we are at 4:2:1 (good, wolf, sorc) right now. Assuming a N0 clear and a N1 wolf/not wolf we'd be at 2 goods (N0 clear and the seer) and a known 3rd (wolf/not wolf). But... assuming worst case the N0 was chief or brit and the N1 was not wolf (not necessarily good as it could be sorc) we could have only 1 full clear which is the seer and 1 not wolf vision.

I assume that the sorc will not announce until they hit the seer which gives us 1 more day for the seer to claim as they would have announced already, right? Once the seer claims then the sorc counterclaims as they are no longer useful and it creates FUD. Then it's a who do we believe situation.

Essentially the wolves have a 1 in 4 shot of hitting the seer tonight. Are we ok gambling on a 25% chance for another vision? Worst case we'd be at 2:2:1 tomorrow which would really suck if we have no information.

Would the wolves just claim and then hit a 3-2 vote for the lynch and a NK to win it? Sorc would just vote with the wolves, right? I think shoveler mentioned this before. I'd like to prevent this tragedy but it doesn't look promising right now. We must hit evil this lynch, right?

I think if we have the seer as a clear and 2 other living not wolf's then a claim may be worthwhile here. Obviously a wolf hit we would have heard by now, right?
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