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Old 12-15-2010, 02:59 PM   #371
MartinD
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
So it looks like I've been put forward as a candidate for the lynch vote today - I don't have a problem with that, but lynching me is not going to help the village win this game.

The one part of my 'long' post from yesterday that CW hasn't quoted is the part where I say that I'm 'thinking out loud' - advance warning that I'm not trying for deep, well thought out analysis, but just letting stuff flow from brain to keyboard. I was using this as a way of catching up with the posts that had been made since I had last checked the thread just after deadline, so it's not really surprising that I'm repeating stuff that's been covered by other people.

I'm never going to be a prolific poster - it's not in my nature to be outgoing in that way (as can be seen from my relatively low post counts in previous games that I've played in), I have limited time to participate in this game (basically a quick catch-up in the wee small hours US time, and a bit of time in the evening), and I'm never going to be around at deadline unless insomnia bites. When I do get a bit of time to have a decent read through posts and put some thoughts together (as I had yesterday), I'll make the occasional long post - other than that, it's mostly going to be short and to the point.

My votes don't look good, which is fair enough - I've been part of pushing two players who ended up not being wolves to the forefront, and contributed to them coming out on top in the lynch votes. In my defence, remember that I need to get my votes in early (because of the time difference) and that there's been very little in the way of useful information out there when I've had to make my decision. (A thought - how many times has the village voted for someone based on a poor voting history, only to find out that they've lynched a villager who got unlucky with the guesswork that's inevitably required for early votes? It's normally pretty easy for wolves to make sure that they have nice clean voting histories if they play things right...)

Anyway, back to today's vote. I'm obviously going to have use my vote for self-defensive purposes, but a few thoughts on what has happened today, and how I see things:

- I know that I'm a villager, and the wolves know that I'm a villager, so I suspect that at least one of the players who has voted for me is a wolf.
- I don't know CW's style of play, but his post did strike me as a bit of overkill - the same points could have been made a lot more succinctly (and would probably have been more effective in a shorter post (and yes, I do see the funny side of saying that in a post like this!)) It does come across to me as trying too hard to make the most of what's there to make me look as bad as possible - trying to draw attention away from his own possible wolfishness?
- I'm less inclined to believe that The Jackal is a wolf at this point - his lateish Day 1 vote doesn't give any indication one way or the other, and he put the first vote on me (so couldn't be sure if anyone would follow). (It may be worth looking in this direction if CW ends up being a wolf, though.)
- I drew attention to CR's Day 1 vote, as it looked a bit strange at the time, but understandable at the same time. I have no reason to distrust CR at this time.

While I think that CW is a more likely wolf, I have to go with the guy with a vote at this point.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I should be able to check up on what's going on in a couple of hours, and may change this vote, depending on what has happened.
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