Originally Posted by Chief Rum
I don't have any overt signs, Schmidty. Just follow my logic. You're free to disagree with it, of course; it's just a theory.
Basically, the wolves passed over both Ephor candidates (one of whom is a longtime strong vet player in Lathum), and possible big rep vets like hoops and myself (and Abe, too, although I would argue he was getting heat, so why night kill him) to go after you. Now you're also a strong vet player, but everyone knew you were going to be in and out because of the new job. On top of that, because of your family responsibilities and West Coast address, you tend to be a less consistent presence in most WW games than other vet players. And you're stubborn like me or Lathum, so you draw votes naturally when you're not UTR.
Basically, the wolves made an extremely curious decision in night-killing you over several other more obvious candidates. Why? You're also saying you're a vanilla villager, so it couldn't have been they thought you had a role.
And I theorized that in the Athens thread before coming here and getting new info. That info is that the other nightkill yesterday was Poli, and he is a confirmed villager. If we accept you as a villager, we are accepting that the wolves chose to put four villagers in Hades, which is one heck of a lockdown on this city to start. They didn't know PB was the good MR and would flee to Athens.
It seems far more likely the wolves chose to send one of their own down the first day, which would explain why you were the nightkill candidate over more obvious candidates.
Perhaps you're innocent, and a vanilla villager. But it requires some decent-sized leaps of faith to accept that on face value, and some holes in the wolves' logic, if so. I am certainly not married to this. I don't have anything concrete against you, nor do I get a good or bad vibe from you, wolf-wise. But this what the theory says.
If you have some counterpoints to this that make it unliekly, or an alternate theory to explain why the wolves made the night kill choices, I am all ears.
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