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Brian Swartz · 09-03-2022, 01:45 AM

That Just Happened: 591 In Review

I've got a spreadsheet up and running with revised rating system; actually two of them. Based on my observations, I'm going back to the strict Skill twice as valuable as Service formula. For similar reasons, Speed half as valuable as Strength, and Mentality equal to speed. Then a small multiplier to make it a true 10-point scale instead of 9.5.

1. Fred Roethlisberger (9.02, 9.12, 25, DEU) - 9,330

Two ratings numbers instead of one. The first one is calculated as described above; the second one I call 'weighted'; it takes into account home-court advantadge for players of relevant countries, and also their preferred surfaces compared to what the Slams, Masters, and Tour Finals are played on.

Roethlisberger won the US Open to take the top spot, also getting Masters wins in Miami, Cincinatti, and Shanghai. Fred has become objectively the best hardcourt player in the world ... for now, and by a small margin. That's been enough to separate him from the pack.

2. Barend Moellendorff (8.87, 8.97, 26, DEU) - 7,720

Moellendorff definitely overachieved this year IMO; I currently rate him 5th. Won the Tour Finals and Canada Masters, runner-up at Wimbledon, and generally somewhat more consistent than the other top players. This will be the last year that can be considered his peak, and he looks to be primed to make the most of it.

3. Sebastian Toma (8.71, 8.73, 26, URU) - 6,905

Also at his apek is Toma, who is the classic example of a player taking advantadge of lots of competition to seize an opening. While others beat each other up on the hardcourts, he's focused on the clay and won Roland Garros and the Rome Masters this year. Next season I think Jensen will have surpassed him on the dirt, and Sebastian is only around 13th or so on hardcourts, but he made his play and made it successfully to reach a new career-high. In the last three years, he has two RG trophies and a runner-up sandwiched between.

Well done, Sebastian Toma.

4. Chris Shank (8.83, 9.09, 27, USA) - 6,720

Shank started the year off well, winning the Australian Open and claiming the #1 spot in the rankings. And then he just sort of appeared to get bored, or perhaps it was mismanagement? Anyway, I think he should have retained the top spot by all odds, but he only made it as far as the semifinal in one big event the rest of the way, at Cincinatti.

Objectively I still have him #2 behind Roethlisberger. But Chris is on the way down now, and unless he can manage to repeat at AO I think he's just not going to have enough left to reclaim that kind of position.

5. Ernie Sheriff (8.71, 8.89, 30, USA) - 6,380

The Sheriff of Wimbledon won his sixth straight there; he's focused on the grass and it's paid off in a big way. It's not out of the question he could win a 7th, but it appears that Roethlisberger has surpassed him at this point. big ask for a player who will be almost 31 by the time it's played. Another deep run there though is expected, and then he'll start fading away for good. Also took a surprise title at Indian Wells this season.

6. Victor Jensen (8.96, 9.06, 26, DNK) - 5,915

Jensen is a player who has been 'almost there' for a while. He still crawled his way up a couple spots from 8th last year, no major titles but he made the final at Roland Garros, Paris, and Indian Wells. Fairly consistent elsewhere also. This figures to be Victor's finest year. He should be competitive on other surfaces while taking the title of King of Clay away from Toma. If that pans out, he could reach as high #2 or #3.

7. Claus Wuestenhagen (8.66, 8.77, 31, AUT) - 5,750

Wuestenhagen has stopped trying to maintain his singles play and gone doubles. He's been at the show long enough, and could still hang around in the Top 10 for at least another year but isn't interested in keeping the corpse of the great champion alive. He'll soon make room for another young face to arise.

8. Ken Grimes (8.73, 8.90, 26, AUS) - 5,135

Grimes is another player who is either right at his peak or just barely coming down from it. Last year he came up just short at his home Slam; I think he should be a sizable favorite to win it this year, but this pretty much is his moment. He's a second-tier threat on Clay and Indoors, but it would take some surprises for him to sneak out a big title anywhere else.

This is the year. If it doesn't happen now, it's probably not going to.

9. Juan Pablo Fuenmayor (8.63, 8.58, 26, ARG) - 5,020

It's not often you see an indoor specialist. Fuenmayor played that card to gain his first Masters Shield recently at Paris. He's also skilled on clay, but only a second-tier player in that more crowded competition. Anywhere else, forget about it. He also helped Argentina to win the WTC last year. Fuenmayor may be able to pull off something in Paris one more time, but he's had his brief stay on page one and is already just on the downside.

10. Sam Marino (8.88, 9.01, 24, SMR) - 4,675

Don't laugh at his nation of origin; Sam is going to be here a while. I judge him 4th overall, and I think that will be 2nd a year from now. A number of good runs were led by finals in the Madrid and Canada Masters - it seems the first big trophy could come at any time, although there's nowhere he'd yet be the favorite. Marino's technical skills have become just good enough to support his powerful physique, and he's ready to join the contenders.

22. Helmut Nyqvist (8.83, 8.87, 22, SWE)

There's really no question about who the headliner for the next generation is. Nyqvist curiously has decided on a split focus between Indoor, Hardcourt, and Clay. He'll be a threat on all of them, with excellent power and mental toughness to go with good speed and stamina. It's not often you see a player who has every tool to this degree, even if he doesn't have one aspect that's truly generational in impact. A fast riser, Helmut might not be at the top long, but make no mistake about it he will be at the top.

I expect him to make the Tour Finals this season, a prelude to setting his sights higher. I've got him 8th at the moment, and with about another three years to improve.

09-03-2022, 01:45 AM	#38
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	That Just Happened: 591 In Review I've got a spreadsheet up and running with revised rating system; actually two of them. Based on my observations, I'm going back to the strict Skill twice as valuable as Service formula. For similar reasons, Speed half as valuable as Strength, and Mentality equal to speed. Then a small multiplier to make it a true 10-point scale instead of 9.5. 1. Fred Roethlisberger (9.02, 9.12, 25, DEU) - 9,330 Two ratings numbers instead of one. The first one is calculated as described above; the second one I call 'weighted'; it takes into account home-court advantadge for players of relevant countries, and also their preferred surfaces compared to what the Slams, Masters, and Tour Finals are played on. Roethlisberger won the US Open to take the top spot, also getting Masters wins in Miami, Cincinatti, and Shanghai. Fred has become objectively the best hardcourt player in the world ... for now, and by a small margin. That's been enough to separate him from the pack. 2. Barend Moellendorff (8.87, 8.97, 26, DEU) - 7,720 Moellendorff definitely overachieved this year IMO; I currently rate him 5th. Won the Tour Finals and Canada Masters, runner-up at Wimbledon, and generally somewhat more consistent than the other top players. This will be the last year that can be considered his peak, and he looks to be primed to make the most of it. 3. Sebastian Toma (8.71, 8.73, 26, URU) - 6,905 Also at his apek is Toma, who is the classic example of a player taking advantadge of lots of competition to seize an opening. While others beat each other up on the hardcourts, he's focused on the clay and won Roland Garros and the Rome Masters this year. Next season I think Jensen will have surpassed him on the dirt, and Sebastian is only around 13th or so on hardcourts, but he made his play and made it successfully to reach a new career-high. In the last three years, he has two RG trophies and a runner-up sandwiched between. Well done, Sebastian Toma. 4. Chris Shank (8.83, 9.09, 27, USA) - 6,720 Shank started the year off well, winning the Australian Open and claiming the #1 spot in the rankings. And then he just sort of appeared to get bored, or perhaps it was mismanagement? Anyway, I think he should have retained the top spot by all odds, but he only made it as far as the semifinal in one big event the rest of the way, at Cincinatti. Objectively I still have him #2 behind Roethlisberger. But Chris is on the way down now, and unless he can manage to repeat at AO I think he's just not going to have enough left to reclaim that kind of position. 5. Ernie Sheriff (8.71, 8.89, 30, USA) - 6,380 The Sheriff of Wimbledon won his sixth straight there; he's focused on the grass and it's paid off in a big way. It's not out of the question he could win a 7th, but it appears that Roethlisberger has surpassed him at this point. big ask for a player who will be almost 31 by the time it's played. Another deep run there though is expected, and then he'll start fading away for good. Also took a surprise title at Indian Wells this season. 6. Victor Jensen (8.96, 9.06, 26, DNK) - 5,915 Jensen is a player who has been 'almost there' for a while. He still crawled his way up a couple spots from 8th last year, no major titles but he made the final at Roland Garros, Paris, and Indian Wells. Fairly consistent elsewhere also. This figures to be Victor's finest year. He should be competitive on other surfaces while taking the title of King of Clay away from Toma. If that pans out, he could reach as high #2 or #3. 7. Claus Wuestenhagen (8.66, 8.77, 31, AUT) - 5,750 Wuestenhagen has stopped trying to maintain his singles play and gone doubles. He's been at the show long enough, and could still hang around in the Top 10 for at least another year but isn't interested in keeping the corpse of the great champion alive. He'll soon make room for another young face to arise. 8. Ken Grimes (8.73, 8.90, 26, AUS) - 5,135 Grimes is another player who is either right at his peak or just barely coming down from it. Last year he came up just short at his home Slam; I think he should be a sizable favorite to win it this year, but this pretty much is his moment. He's a second-tier threat on Clay and Indoors, but it would take some surprises for him to sneak out a big title anywhere else. This is the year. If it doesn't happen now, it's probably not going to. 9. Juan Pablo Fuenmayor (8.63, 8.58, 26, ARG) - 5,020 It's not often you see an indoor specialist. Fuenmayor played that card to gain his first Masters Shield recently at Paris. He's also skilled on clay, but only a second-tier player in that more crowded competition. Anywhere else, forget about it. He also helped Argentina to win the WTC last year. Fuenmayor may be able to pull off something in Paris one more time, but he's had his brief stay on page one and is already just on the downside. 10. Sam Marino (8.88, 9.01, 24, SMR) - 4,675 Don't laugh at his nation of origin; Sam is going to be here a while. I judge him 4th overall, and I think that will be 2nd a year from now. A number of good runs were led by finals in the Madrid and Canada Masters - it seems the first big trophy could come at any time, although there's nowhere he'd yet be the favorite. Marino's technical skills have become just good enough to support his powerful physique, and he's ready to join the contenders. 22. Helmut Nyqvist (8.83, 8.87, 22, SWE) There's really no question about who the headliner for the next generation is. Nyqvist curiously has decided on a split focus between Indoor, Hardcourt, and Clay. He'll be a threat on all of them, with excellent power and mental toughness to go with good speed and stamina. It's not often you see a player who has every tool to this degree, even if he doesn't have one aspect that's truly generational in impact. A fast riser, Helmut might not be at the top long, but make no mistake about it he will be at the top. I expect him to make the Tour Finals this season, a prelude to setting his sights higher. I've got him 8th at the moment, and with about another three years to improve.