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Good points. I think now that we're seeing teams go for it on 4th down more, the next change will be teams going for it on longer distances and using the passing game more. Would 4th and 6 from the 50 really be significantly harder for the Saints offense to pick up than 4th and 3? I don't know the numbers, and sample size would probably be an issue in getting a good sense of the likelihood of conversion, but my guess is the difference in the true odds of success across those scenarios are nowhere near the difference in how frequently offenses would try it.
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