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Old 02-18-2008, 03:10 AM   #181
Chief Rum
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
I'm not going to go up and down on the accuracy charts right now, as it is getting late, and I want to go to bed. So I'm going with the 50.9% accuracy rating and again assuming five wolves. I am also going to assume the Fool, Teacher's Pet and all of the wolves have checked in.

With 16 scans announced, taking out the above seven, we have nine scans at a minimum that should have fallen under path's initial accuracy roles.

If there are 5 wolves, we have a 23.8% chance of the person we are targeting actually being a wolf. With 9 scans, it is statistically strongest that 2 wolves have been scanned, and 7 students.

We have a 50.9% chance (on average) of being accurate. In order for us to get ALL villagers at this point, we would have to roll false on the 2 wolves (2*49.1% = 24.1%) and roll true on 7 students (7*50.9% = 0.89%). The chances of both of these odds not having a "W" show up (accurate or not) is 0.21%!

Something funky is going on here. I don't trust these numbers open night numbers at all. I am beginning to suspect we all received villager scans and should throw these out.
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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