2041 World Team Cup Preview
This next couple of weeks is my favorite time of year I think. I'll get to the end-of-year rankings, review of the completed season and what I was right and wrong about, ratings and projections for next year, a first detailed look at Girsh's contemporaries, and so on. But first, a look at what the WTC is likely to bring.
A look back here at how Sri Lanka has risen through the national rankings since regaining admission to the World Team Cup four years ago:
2037 -- +19(86th to 67th)
2038 -- +16(67th to 51st)
2039 -- +9(51st to 42nd) -- QF loss to Austria
2040 -- +16(42nd to 26th)
We've still lost only twice, both times to Austria, with no defeats to all others combined. They managed to stay in Level 1, by the way, with a 4-1 defeat of Luxembourg in their playoff. I expect that situation to change this next year.
It's a huge jump up in competition at the elite level we find ourselves at. I'd say it's a bigger jump from Level 2 to Level 1 than it is from not being in the competition all the way up to Level 2. In order to have any real chance at winning the top level, it's pretty much mandatory to have a pair of Top 10 players. There are four nations right now that have that: the US, Spain, Czech Republic, and Russia. Everybody else is pretty much fighting for leftovers. Sri Lanka isn't there yet -- Girsh is still a couple of years away probably. But we are here. From this point we can sniff my ultimate goal, making Sri Lanka the #1 nation in the world and winning the WTC -- the second would have to happen probably multiple times before we reach the first.
I think we're good enough to stick in Level 1. The most likely scenario is being good enough to stay up, but not good enough to make it out of group play. Finishing second in our group and making it to the quarterfinals is possible with a kind draw; so is having to win a playoff to stay up if we get a particularly bad draw like Austria did last year. As it has been through each level so far, we are the lowest-ranked nation at 26th; everyone else up here is in the Top 20.
As it ends up, we are in top-heavy Group 2 with defending champion Spain(1st), last year's runner-up Czech Republic(6th), and over-rated Mexico(10th). It would take a minor miracle to upset the Czechs or Spaniards, so it figures to really come down to our tie with Mexico. The loser figures to be in a playoff. This is the Mexicans 10th straight year at Level 1, and they've made it out of the group stage six times, losing in the quarterfinals every time and almost all of them badly. In that time they've never been subjected to a relegation playoff, but they aren't what they used to be. Girsh has beaten their top player,
George Craighead twice in competitive matches recently. Nobody they have can threaten Mehul. So while there could be a surprise, I see everyone beating up on Mexico, Sri Lanka getting thrashed by the top powers as well, and ending up with a win, two losses, and see you next year hopefully with a better draw. . If that's how it works out, it will at least be an education, especially for Girsh, and I'll have a better idea just how far he has to go before we're ready to contend up here.