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Originally Posted by JPhillips
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Cheers !
As i understand it they concentrated on the initial 'raw' spread in Wuhan before anybody in the public or most doctors even were fully aware of it. I think that that knowledge alone already makes a huge difference for everything after, which they kind of allude to:
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The estimated R0 can be lower if the serial interval is shorter. However, recent studies reported that persons can be infectious for a long period, such as 1–3 weeks after symptom onset (18; R. Woelfel et al., unpub data. Error: DOI Not Found Link); thus, we believe that a mean serial interval shorter than 6 days is unlikely during the early outbreak in Wuhan, where infected persons were not rapidly hospitalized.
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Basically i think what the article boils down to is that it depends a lot on how many and how soon you can trace/isolate people from the general population. Early on in the pandemic it did not happen at all and then it was also neglected (the "lets wait if it actually us bad"/herd immunity crowd), bungled (US testing desaster) or just failed due to bad 'luck' in a lot of the countries hit after China with exceptions like Korea, Austria and Germany.
If you think about it, Social Distancing and Lockdowns esentially have the same effect, only kind of 'in reverse'. If you can't isolate enough people individually, reduce contact as much as possible for as many people as possible. Then those infected at the time will still infect their Share, but largely people they live with or other known contacts. Gives a way in for tracing efforts to pick up the bread crumbs once numbers eventually drop to a manageable level.
At least that is my takeaway combined with what else we know/have seen ...
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“The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes "Awww!”
Last edited by whomario : 04-07-2020 at 07:05 PM.
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