http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...on-center.html
Quote:
Whether or not you agree with the characterization of Barack Obama as a rootin' tootin', no good flip-flopper, bear the following in mind: all else being equal, a politician can expect to be punished if he changes his positions. Therefore, a politician will only change positions if the benefits outweigh the consequences.
Rasmussen has some new numbers out that suggest that Obama may indeed be reaping the benefits. In June, 26 percent of likely voters viewed McCain as a moderate versus 22 percent for Obama. But now, those numbers have -- flip-flopped. Obama is now seen as a moderate by 27 percent of voters, versus 23 percent for McCain.
The salient fact here is not necessarily that Obama is perceived as more moderate than he once was; that's pretty much what you'd expect. Rather, it's that he's somehow managed to make McCain seem more conservative. Presently, 28 percent of voters describe McCain as Very Conservative, whereas only 19 percent did a month ago. It may be the case that the McCain campaign's inability to define their candidate has left him relatively unable to carve out his own ground; voters are defining him solely in relation to Barack Obama.
What makes these numbers especially tricky for McCain is that he had shifted rightward during the primaries -- and has continued to do so to a certain extent in the general election campaign, with positions like his call for offshore drilling. If he were to attempt to move to the center now, that would not merely be a flip-flop; it would be a flip-flop squared.
There are still a few other cards the Republicans have left to play; their 527's, for instance, will do everything in their power to see that Obama is not able to maintain a perception as a moderate. Even so, having ceded the center ground, McCain might not find it easy to get it back. What I'd find particularly exasperating about all of this if I were a Republican donor is that McCain had the first-mover advantage, having finished his primary months ahead of Barack Obama's. Instead of using that time to preempt an Obama move to the center, he failed to do much of anything in particular. Nor, it seems, has his maverick brand been as rainproof as it was made out to be.
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I'm not saying that McCain will lose. But I don't agree with his continuing to move rightward after the primaries. Give lipservice to the 30% of the country that approves of Bush, but move to the center.
Those 30% are going to vote for you anyway. I know the argument that they may just choose not to vote. But I don't agree in this case. Anyone left on the GWB bandwagon is a diehard partisan. They are coming out to vote. They may threaten not to. But that is a bluff. They care too much. Why else would they still be sticking to the most unpopular president in history? At this point, it takes a bit of energy and interest to stick with Bush--not just knee-jerk partisan inertia. And people with energy and interest come out to vote.