[Brian Swartz]

2055 Preview

1. Mateo Kaspar(92%, 9.17, +0.03)

Still inching upwards.

2. Gillo Fangio(89%, 8.81, -0.04)

The decline has just started for the Italian, but he should hold onto the #2 spot. There are multiple players nipping at his heels, and they're going to get him before too much longer.

3. Guus Dircx(93%, 8.79, +0.04)

Good enough to rival Fangio, but not surpass him for the role of top challenger.

4. Prakash Mooljee(82%, 8.53, -0.11)

He may well be able to leverage his position here enough to stay at 6th or so this year, but more and more players are going to be better than he is now. I expect this will be Mooljee's last year in the Tour Finals.

5. Ritwik Dudwadkar(95%, 8.70, +0.11)

Quite good, and he could end up having the highest peak of any player I've ever had. Only fifth-best right now though, and I don't think he has any chance of ever being #1. Dudwadkar was born at the wrong time. Should grab the #4 as Mooljee slides, but isn't quite the player that the others ahead of him are. He's gaining on them though. Up from 9th a year ago.

5. Martin Zarco(92%, 8.77, +0.04)

Zarco's good enough to be the top alternative by a significant margin on clay, as Kaspar's struggles tend to be most pronounced there. If he can capitalize on that, he can push past Dudwadkar and grab the #4 spot. Another example of the incredible strength right now at the top of the sport.

7. Johnny Browne(85%, 8.31, -0.27)

A stunningly precipitous drop, but as I thought he might a year ago, Browne has gone doubles. Didn't actually play that many matches though and only ranked 329th there. As soon as he starts doing that more often, he'll disappear from singles for good I would think.

8. Hsuang-tsung Teng(93%, 8.56, +0.08)

Not as good as the top challengers, but Teng should be able to use his newfound status to push up another spot or two. Outstanding power and mental game, but not quite there in terms of his shotmaking yet.

9. Sigmund Kronecker(89%, 8.47, -0.04)

10. Milos Schmucker(90%, 8.54, -0.02)

Schmucker and Kronecker are a couple of the quality players -- Jolland is another example -- who have been pretty good but couldn't quite break through the wall of resistance to be more than marginal Top 10ers.

12. Matthew Panter(95%, 8.29, +0.05)

Up from 23rd a year ago, Panter surprised me this year. I didn't expect a whole lot from him, but he was able to take advantage of the favorable crowds over the summer and turn in some nice results with better-than-expected play. Still, it's hard to see him going much higher. Doesn't have the baseline ability or breakout athleticism to do so.

14. Valentin Rosenberg(94%, 8.22, +0.11)

Also up sharply from 26th, yet lacking. One of the best serves in the game, but return is abysmal. A lot of credit for maximizing his bonuses; that serve and hardcourt expertise.

15. Ruben Piazzola(95%, 8.30, +0.01)

Didn't improve really last year, and it shows as he stagnated in the teens. Limited hardcourt proficiency slows his progress, as does the baseline game. I'll still be surprised if he doesn't crack the Top 10 at some point though.

18. Gregory MacKenzie(96%, 8.27, ??)

Our top debut guy seems to have come out of nowhere. He fits the big-serving American mold. Good athlete, excellent mental game, can't hang from the baseline. Looks to have a bit better career than the other risers in the teens ahead of him though.

22. Xavier Dorso(95%, 7.95, -0.02)

Wow. He's going nowhere if he can't even improve before he reaches what should be his prime. Up just a bit from 25th last year.

25. Vinnie Cone(94%, 8.09, +0.08)

Progressing on and off; up from 32nd somewhat. Continues to be solid but unimpressive. Probably peaks around 15th I'd say.

26. Dick Blake(97%, 8.16, +0.06)

A meteoric player like him doesn't have time to just hang around. Needs a big year on and off, boosting his technical ability. Otherwhise he'll end up as just a flash. 29th a year ago, so this was definitely a stall for him.

30. Alexey Alenichev(95%, 7.82, ??)

A quality serve by the standards of the elite, but Alenichev doesn't have anything else to offer. Athleticism in particular is substandard.

31. Benno Duhr(94%, 7.97, +0.13)

Right where he was last year despite the improvements. Like Alenichev, Duhr doesn't have the requisite athletic ability and has invested too much in doubles.

51. Alexey Nikitin(98%, 8.40, +0.18)

Rather silly to see him down this low. The serve is still a big problem but skill has become fairly decent and he's still got monstrous power. Down from 38th, probably because he locked himself in to playing an elite-player schedule when he wasn't quite there yet. Too much ability not to break through though. He should be 35 spots higher. There are a handful of 21-22 yos ahead of him, not the least of which is britrock's other player, American Stuart Pargeter. Between them, Blake, and Nikitin here, they should make their presence felt by the end of the year in the Top32 more significantly. I've still got my money on this Ukrainian though. None of them have his gifts, recent results notwithstanding.

99. Garreth Nebett(101%, 7.22, ??)

We've got another teenager in the Top 100(barely on both counts, he'll turn 20 in two weeks). Wouldn't you know it, it's another American. There's nothing to get excited about here though. It wouldn't surprise to see this one never reach the Top 20. Decidedly average across the board.

207(13 D). Anil Mehul(64%, 7.12, -0.17)

I expect a low-level challenger player here for a while. Trainer value is at 5.25(+0.05). After some consideration I've decided to take him all the way up to the limit, holding on six more years until he's 44(that would be just a dozen weeks before mandatory retirement). It'll be lower this year, but I tracked his experience gain this year. In their prime, I can get over 500 points a week; he was at about 375, a quarter less. Right now I'm projecting Mehul to be able to get to 5.4, possibly close to 5.5 as a trainer. I've never seen higher than 5.3, and what can I say -- I'm greedy.

817. Stanley Edleman(101%, 7.00, ??)

When you come out of juniors right on the border of being Challenger-ready, your career's off to a good start.

2049. Sushant Chiba(92%, 6.22, +1.01)

Chiba had a lot of matches at the end of the year, so he'll basically have the first two months off, though it may be a bit less if practice results are as poor as I fear they might be. Can't shorten it much though as I must keep his form under control and amateurs are match-intensive. At any rate, he's in the futures-capable range(6+ roughly) and will spend the first half of the year in amateurs before he tackles them. Was a full point behind Edleman six months ago, so he's already closed some of that gap mostly due to physical maturation which will continue. Long ways to go though.

Manager Ranking; 2nd(32.4k points, down a bit from last year I think but didn't record the amount). Nevstar has deposed me, first time I've not been #1 in a while. Congratulations!